BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BioGaia AB (publ) stock SEK 130, price SEK 124, upside +4.6%, quality 88 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 60.68 – kr 134.90 · fair‑value band kr 87.98 – kr 169.17 · the kr 124.40 price screens below the kr 130.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
Follow BioGaia AB (publ) in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether BioGaia AB (publ) is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
BioGaia AB (publ), a healthcare company, develops, manufactures, markets and sells probiotic products for gut, oral, and immune health in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the Asia-Pacific, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through Pediatrics, Adult Health, and Other segments.
Show moreShow less
The Pediatrics segment offers drops, oral rehydration solutions, and gut health tablets, as well as cultures that are used as an ingredient in infant formula and milk formula.
Its Adult Health segment provides gut health tablets, bone health tablets, and oral health lozenges, as well as cultures, which are used as an ingredient in a licensee's dairy product. The Other segment offers packaging solutions.
It sells its products through distribution partners or through its own distribution channels. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B) currently trades at kr 124.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 130.13, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.4%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 83.67 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 124.40 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 28.38, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 87.98 (bear) to kr 169.17 (bull), the price of kr 124.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BioGaia AB (publ) reported revenue of 1.5B SEK in FY2025 versus 785M SEK in FY2021, a compound +18.3%/yr. Reported net income was 333M SEK in FY2025, compounding +14.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.6B SEK (≈ $1.3B) Small · P/E ratio 34.9 · P/S ratio 7.96 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.47 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 30.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 90 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 5%, BIOG-B screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 87.98Fair Value kr 130.13Bullkr 169.17
Price kr 124.40 · Upside +4.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.1% vs 6.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 574 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score88 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+4.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BioGaia AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BIOG-B
Frequently asked questions
Is BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 130.13 versus a price of kr 124.40, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BIOG-B?
Our model-based fair value for BioGaia AB (publ) is kr 130.13 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 124.40.
What is the quality score of BIOG-B?
BioGaia AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 88/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 130.13 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 87.98, optimistic scenario kr 169.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BioGaia AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 130.13, about +5% upside versus a price of kr 124.40 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 87.98, optimistic scenario kr 169.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
BioGaia AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does BioGaia AB (publ) pay a dividend?
BioGaia AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 3.22% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BioGaia AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +21.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.5 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BIOG-B use?
Our models discount BioGaia AB (publ) at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BioGaia AB (publ) that is +21.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BioGaia AB (publ) grew +15.5 % a year. The price currently implies +21.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BioGaia AB (publ) (+21.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.41 %: that much free cash flow BioGaia AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BioGaia AB (publ) it is kr 130.13 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of kr 124.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BioGaia AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, BIOG-B trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 124.40, fair value kr 130.13, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BIOG-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 124.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 130.13). For BioGaia AB (publ) the two are kr 5.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BioGaia AB (publ) worth?
The market values BioGaia AB (publ) at about 12.6B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 124.40; our models calculate a fair value of kr 130.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BIOG-B?
Our models span a range for BioGaia AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 87.98, base kr 130.13, optimistic kr 169.17 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price kr 124.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BIOG-B?
BioGaia AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.9 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 130.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 9.6, P/S 8.0, EV/EBITDA 25.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for BioGaia AB (publ) (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 30.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 88/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BIOG-B from its 52-week high?
BioGaia AB (publ) trades at kr 124.40, about 8% below its 52-week high of kr 134.90 and 33% above the low of kr 93.84 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 130.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BioGaia AB (publ)?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BioGaia AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price kr 124.40, calculated fair value kr 130.13 (+5%), Quality Score 88/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BIOG-B calculated?
We run BioGaia AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 130.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. BioGaia AB (publ) currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was kr 124.40. Our model-based fair value is kr 130.13, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BioGaia AB (publ) right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (kr 87.98 to kr 169.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B) come from?
Earnings per share at BioGaia AB (publ) grew +6.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.4 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BioGaia AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
The market capitalisation of BioGaia AB (publ) is 12.6B SEK (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BioGaia AB (publ) is 7.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
Earnings per share at BioGaia AB (publ) are kr 3.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
The dividend yield of BioGaia AB (publ) is 3.2% (payout 115%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
The net margin of BioGaia AB (publ) is 22.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BioGaia AB (publ) is 30.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BioGaia AB (publ) is 18.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
The operating margin of BioGaia AB (publ) is 28.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
Revenue at BioGaia AB (publ) is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B)?
Earnings per share at BioGaia AB (publ) are growing +17.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does BioGaia AB (publ) (BIOG-B) hold?
BioGaia AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 801M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch BioGaia AB (publ) in the live analysis
One click puts BioGaia AB (publ) on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Oct 13, 2026