BioGaia AB (BIOG-B) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · SE · Market cap 12.6B SEK (≈ $1.3B) · ISIN SE0017769995

What is BioGaia AB really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 87/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 95.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 60.68 – kr 134.90 · fair‑value band kr 54.06 – kr 95.08 · the kr 113.40 price screens above the kr 70.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

BioGaia AB (BIOG-B) currently trades at kr 113.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 70.27, implying the stock looks roughly 61.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 87/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 89.11 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 113.40 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 8.94, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, BioGaia AB generated revenue of 1.5B SEK at a net margin of 21.5%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 801M SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 54.06 (bear case) to kr 95.08 (bull case); at kr 113.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −38%, BIOG-B screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 89.11) versus Asset-Based (kr 8.94). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

BioGaia AB (publ), a healthcare company, develops, manufactures, markets and sells probiotic products for gut, oral, and immune health in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the Asia-Pacific, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through Pediatrics, Adult Health, and Other segments.

Full company description

BioGaia AB (publ), a healthcare company, develops, manufactures, markets and sells probiotic products for gut, oral, and immune health in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the Asia-Pacific, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through Pediatrics, Adult Health, and Other segments. The Pediatrics segment offers drops, oral rehydration solutions, and gut health tablets, as well as cultures that are used as an ingredient in infant formula and milk formula. Its Adult Health segment provides gut health tablets, bone health tablets, and oral health lozenges, as well as cultures, which are used as an ingredient in a licensee's dairy product. The Other segment offers packaging solutions. It sells its products through distribution partners or through its own distribution channels. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BioGaia AB reported revenue of 1.5B SEK in FY2025 versus 785M SEK in FY2021, a compound +18.3%/yr. Reported net income was 333M SEK in FY2025, compounding +14.1%/yr from FY2021.

BIOG-B screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 612 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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