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Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Bank of Ireland Group $15.27, price $22.35, upside -31.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Bank of Ireland Group
BKRIF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $15.27 · Overvalued (−31.7%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +36.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 30.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.1% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 65/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.46 – $23.50 · fair‑value band $13.75 – $23.53 · the $22.35 price screens above the $15.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Bank of Ireland Group plc provides banking and other financial services in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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Bank of Ireland Group plc provides banking and other financial services in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers current and savings accounts, demand and notice accounts, and business accounts and deposits; personal, car, home improvement and energy upgrade, top-up loans, and student loans, as well as overdrafts and mortgages; and business and farming loans, green business, insurance premium finance, invoice finance, hire purchase, and leasing services. The company also provides international payments and credit cards; international money transfer services; investment products; premier and private banking services; and business protection, mortgage protection, income protection, home protection, and protection for individuals and families. In addition, it provides home, car, travel, and life insurance products. It offers its products and services through its bank branches, banking app, and online and phone banking channels. Bank of Ireland Group plc was founded in 1783 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock analysis
Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF) currently trades at $22.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.27, 31.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $18.50 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $22.35 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.78, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.75 (bear) to $23.53 (bull), the price of $22.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bank of Ireland Group reported revenue of €6.1B in FY2025 versus €3.2B in FY2021, a compound +17.6%/yr. Reported net income was €1.2B in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.7B · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 3.31 · EPS (TTM) $1.33 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 19.7% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −32%, BKRIF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.75
Fair Value $15.27
Bull $23.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4764 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$13.23
$14.53
$17.73
76
Gordon GGM
$5.58
$11.60
$18.41
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$5.58
$9.78
$12.18
66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$5.58
$11.60
$18.41
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$5.58
$9.78
$12.18
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$13.87
$18.50
$23.12
63
P/B Multiple
$16.07
$21.43
$26.78
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$7.65
$10.25
$15.30
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$13.23
$14.53
$17.73
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Profitability
30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
97
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.1% vs −14.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 23%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.5% a year for the price and −5.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−29.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.5%
BKRIF screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (39 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
- Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BKRIF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Profit Soars 36% as ...
- Assessing Bank of Ireland Group (ISE:BIRG) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness
- Bank of Ireland Resets as Profits Slip, but Payout Rises
- Bank of Ireland Group PLC (BKRIF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth Amid ...
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 78.00 SGD | 40.39 SGD | −48% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 600036 | ¥40.69 | ¥52.73 | +30% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €79.53 | €77.12 | −3% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $11.05 | $6.82 | −38% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.38 | €4.06 | −36% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €91.54 | €105.99 | +16% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK | ₹721.20 | ₹406.44 | −44% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 32.01 SGD | 19.78 SGD | −38% |
| Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 | 63.15 SAR | 36.95 SAR | −41% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €12.03 | €8.46 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.27 versus a price of $22.35, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BKRIF?
Our model-based fair value for Bank of Ireland Group is $15.27 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.35.
What is the quality score of BKRIF?
Bank of Ireland Group has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.27 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.75, optimistic scenario $23.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank of Ireland Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.27, about −32% upside versus a price of $22.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.75, optimistic scenario $23.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
Bank of Ireland Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Bank of Ireland Group pay a dividend?
Bank of Ireland Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank of Ireland Group would have to grow free cash flow by -9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.9 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BKRIF use?
Our models discount Bank of Ireland Group at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank of Ireland Group that is -9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank of Ireland Group grew +31.9 % a year. The price currently implies -9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank of Ireland Group (-9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.23 %: that much free cash flow Bank of Ireland Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank of Ireland Group it is $15.27 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $22.35. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank of Ireland Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, BKRIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.35, fair value $15.27, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BKRIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.27). For Bank of Ireland Group the two are $7.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank of Ireland Group worth?
The market values Bank of Ireland Group at about $21.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $22.35; our models calculate a fair value of $15.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BKRIF?
Our models span a range for Bank of Ireland Group: cautious scenario $13.75, base $15.27, optimistic $23.53 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $22.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BKRIF?
Bank of Ireland Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.27 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank of Ireland Group (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 2.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BKRIF from its 52-week high?
Bank of Ireland Group trades at $22.35, about 5% below its 52-week high of $23.50 and 53% above the low of $14.58 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank of Ireland Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank of Ireland Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $22.35, calculated fair value $15.27 (−32%), Quality Score 61/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BKRIF calculated?
We run Bank of Ireland Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank of Ireland Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was $22.35. Our model-based fair value is $15.27, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank of Ireland Group right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank of Ireland Group grew −11.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −12.6 %, EBIT margin +22.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −17.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank of Ireland Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
The market capitalisation of Bank of Ireland Group is $21.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank of Ireland Group is 3.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Ireland Group are $1.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
The dividend yield of Bank of Ireland Group is 3.1% (payout 52.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
The net margin of Bank of Ireland Group is 19.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank of Ireland Group is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank of Ireland Group is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
The operating margin of Bank of Ireland Group is 39.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
Revenue at Bank of Ireland Group is growing −3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Ireland Group are growing −6.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF) hold?
Bank of Ireland Group holds more cash than debt, $13.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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