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Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Biomea Fusion, Inc stock $0.34, price $0.64, upside -46.8%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US · ISIN US09077A1060

BF Biomea Fusion, Inc logo Thin data Oct 30, 2026

Biomea Fusion, Inc

BMEA · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 47% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 50/100
Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
Fair value $0.3400 · Strongly overvalued (−46.8%)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 5/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$41.80 $0.5850 Fair Value $0.3400 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5850 – $41.80 · fair‑value band $0.2295 – $0.4250 · the $0.6395 price screens above the $0.3400 fair value. As of Oct 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Biomea Fusion, Inc., a clinical-stage diabetes and obesity medicines company, focuses on the discovery and development of oral drugs to treat patients with diabetes and obesity.

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It's lead clinical program's drug candidates are COVALENT-111 and COVALENT-112, which has completed Phase II clinical trials of icovamenib for the treatment of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes; COVALENT-211, which is in Phase II clinical trial of icovamenib for treating insulin-deficient type 2 diabetes; and COVALENT-212, which is in Phase II clinical trial of icovamenib for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.

The company is also developing BMF-650, which is in Phase I glucagon-like peptide-131 clinical trial for the treatment of obesity. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in San Carlos, California.

Stock analysis

Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA) currently trades at $0.6395, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3400, 46.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.2295 (bear) to $0.4250 (bull), the price of $0.6395 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Biomea Fusion, Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$61.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $103M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−0.2900 · Return on equity −164% · Return on assets (EBIT) −93.8% · Free cash flow −$70.4M · Net cash $54.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −47%, BMEA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.2295 Fair Value $0.3400 Bull $0.4250
Price $0.6395 · Upside -46.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $0.2700 $0.4000 $0.5000 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.2700 $0.4000 $0.5000 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 71
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 68
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 10
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BMEA screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 588 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside −45.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −105.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.47× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Incyte Corporation INCY $116.80 $203.62 +74% vs BMEA
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $818.77 $1,275 +56% vs BMEA
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $540.00 $594.00 +10% vs BMEA
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,487,000 KRW 1,635,700 KRW +10% vs BMEA
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$45.06 HK$49.57 +10% vs BMEA
argenx SE ARGX $882.48 $908.40 +3% vs BMEA
CSL Limited CSL A$200.73 A$178.58 −11% vs BMEA
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$217.60 HK$153.56 −29% vs BMEA
Celltrion, Inc 068270 189,300 KRW 74,945 KRW −60% vs BMEA
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $64.76 $19.01 −71% vs BMEA

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Biomea Fusion, Inc · Fair Value
$0.3400 −47%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Biomea Fusion, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMEA

Frequently asked questions

Is Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3400 versus a price of $0.6395, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BMEA?
Our model-based fair value for Biomea Fusion, Inc is $0.3400 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.6395.
What is the quality score of BMEA?
Biomea Fusion, Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3400 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2295, optimistic scenario $0.4250. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Biomea Fusion, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3400, about −47% upside versus a price of $0.6395 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2295, optimistic scenario $0.4250. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Biomea Fusion, Inc it is $0.3400 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of $0.6395. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Biomea Fusion, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, BMEA trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.6395, fair value $0.3400, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMEA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.6395); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3400). For Biomea Fusion, Inc the two are $0.2995 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Biomea Fusion, Inc worth?
The market values Biomea Fusion, Inc at about $103M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is $0.6395; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BMEA?
Our models span a range for Biomea Fusion, Inc: cautious scenario $0.2295, base $0.3400, optimistic $0.4250 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price $0.6395). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Biomea Fusion, Inc (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −164.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BMEA from its 52-week high?
Biomea Fusion, Inc trades at $0.6395, about 71% below its 52-week high of $2.21 and 9% above the low of $0.5850 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Biomea Fusion, Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Biomea Fusion, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price $0.6395, calculated fair value $0.3400 (−47%), Quality Score 50/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMEA calculated?
We run Biomea Fusion, Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Biomea Fusion, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $0.6395. Our model-based fair value is $0.3400, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Biomea Fusion, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4250). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.2295 to $0.4250) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Biomea Fusion, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA)?
The market capitalisation of Biomea Fusion, Inc is $103M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA)?
Earnings per share at Biomea Fusion, Inc are $−0.2900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Biomea Fusion, Inc is −164% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Biomea Fusion, Inc is −93.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA) generate?
The free cash flow of Biomea Fusion, Inc is −$70.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Biomea Fusion, Inc (BMEA) hold?
Biomea Fusion, Inc holds more cash than debt, $54.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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