Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A $9.97, price $12.62, upside -21.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
5‑month range $9.78 – $13.95 · fair‑value band $9.03 – $12.45 · the $12.62 price screens above the $9.97 fair value. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Corporate and Investment Banking.
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Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Corporate and Investment Banking. The company offers savings and deposit accounts, cards, advanced payment systems, insurance products, pensions, mortgages, and loans, as well as financial advisory, electronic payment, self-service customer operations, and consultancy services. It also provides asset management, financial planning, consultancy on non-financial services, and fiduciary and trust services; and credit intermediation, collaboration with trade associations, factoring offers, and third-party custody and storage services for dairy products. In addition, the company offers corporate and structured finance, medium and long-term credit, and specialized support, as well as leasing and bancassurance. It serves private customers, corporate and large group clients, and small and medium enterprises. The company was founded in 1472 and is headquartered in Siena, Italy.
Stock analysis
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY) currently trades at $12.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.97, 21.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $13.08 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $12.62 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.46, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.03 (bear) to $12.45 (bull), the price of $12.62 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A reported revenue of €5.0B in FY2025 versus €3.3B in FY2022, a compound +15.0%/yr. Reported net income was €2.7B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $38.3B · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 4.28 · EPS (TTM) $1.60 · Dividend yield 6.8% · Net margin 54.3% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −21%, BMPSY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.03Fair Value $9.97Bull $12.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5596 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.8%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.0% a year for the price and +11.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−37.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.3% · Above median
Return on assets1.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)59.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)48.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth95.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)7.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)7.20× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF21.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)53· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMPSY
Frequently asked questions
Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.97 versus a price of $12.62, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BMPSY?
Our model-based fair value for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is $9.97 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.62.
What is the quality score of BMPSY?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.97 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.03, optimistic scenario $12.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.97, about −21% upside versus a price of $12.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.03, optimistic scenario $12.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A pay a dividend?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by -2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +15.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BMPSY use?
Our models discount Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A that is -2.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A grew +15.0 % a year. The price currently implies -2.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (-2.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.76 %: that much free cash flow Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A it is $9.97 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $12.62. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, BMPSY trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.62, fair value $9.97, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMPSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.97). For Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A the two are $2.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A worth?
The market values Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A at about $38.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $12.62; our models calculate a fair value of $9.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BMPSY?
Our models span a range for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A: cautious scenario $9.03, base $9.97, optimistic $12.45 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $12.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BMPSY?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 13.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $12.62, calculated fair value $9.97 (−21%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMPSY calculated?
We run Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.62. Our model-based fair value is $9.97, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
The market capitalisation of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is $38.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 4.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
Earnings per share at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A are $1.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
The dividend yield of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 6.8% (payout 53.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
The net margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 54.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
The operating margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 48.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
Revenue at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is growing +95.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY)?
Earnings per share at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A are growing −47.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPSY) carry?
The net debt of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is €35.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 21.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026