Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Banco BPM S.p.A $14.19, price $18.22, upside -22.1%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8070 – $20.44 · fair‑value band $11.47 – $19.91 · the $18.22 price screens above the $14.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 3, 2026.
Banco BPM S.p.A. provides banking and financial products and services to individual, business, and corporate customers in Italy. The company operates through six segments: Commercial; Corporate and Investment Banking; Asset Management and Insurance; Other Partnerships; Finance; and Corporate Centre.
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Banco BPM S.p.A. provides banking and financial products and services to individual, business, and corporate customers in Italy. The company operates through six segments: Commercial; Corporate and Investment Banking; Asset Management and Insurance; Other Partnerships; Finance; and Corporate Centre. It offers current account and digital services; safety deposit boxes; home, personal, property, and car and vehicle insurances; credit, telepass family, debit, payment, and prepaid cards; T3 Trading, web, and T3 mobile platforms; home and surrogacy mortgagees; long term car rental; personal loans, including salary-backed loan; calculate mortgage payments; mutual funds, insurance investment, saving, and certificate products; and supplementary pension securities comprising true life secure retirement and anima arts and crafts pension funds. The company also provides business current accounts; green and sustainable, ordinary financing, dedicated, subsidized, and condominium credit financing products; international payments and collections, trade and export finance, and digital international solutions; license plate, equipment, real estate, renewable energy, operating, and nautical leasing services; POS receipts; and RIBA, MAV and SDD collections. In addition, it offers multi-risk, personal, property, and motor vehicle insurance; corporate cards; digital services; foreign risk coverage, exchange risk hedging, and interest rate risk coverage; investment banking, including equity capital market, mergers and acquisitions, securitization, and debt capital markets; documentary box office receipts, electronic collections abroad, international guarantees, and pro-soluto assignment of export credits services; structured finances; and collection and payment services. The company was formerly known as Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa Scarl and changed its name to Banco BPM Società per Azioni in January 2017. Banco BPM S.p.A. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Verona, Italy.
Stock analysis
Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF) currently trades at $18.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.19, 22.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $19.25 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $18.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.77, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.47 (bear) to $19.91 (bull), the price of $18.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Banco BPM S.p.A reported revenue of €6.6B in FY2025 versus €4.4B in FY2021, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was €2.1B in FY2025, compounding +38.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $27.4B · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 3.57 · EPS (TTM) $1.60 · Net margin 31.4% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin 53.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −22%, BNCZF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.47Fair Value $14.19Bull $19.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.21 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+52.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+52.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2015 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 27%
2025 sits 65% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (61 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.19 versus a price of $18.22, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BNCZF?
Our model-based fair value for Banco BPM S.p.A is $14.19 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.22.
What is the quality score of BNCZF?
Banco BPM S.p.A has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.19 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.47, optimistic scenario $19.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banco BPM S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.19, about −22% upside versus a price of $18.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.47, optimistic scenario $19.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
Banco BPM S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco BPM S.p.A it is $14.19 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $18.22. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banco BPM S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, BNCZF trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.22, fair value $14.19, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BNCZF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.19). For Banco BPM S.p.A the two are $4.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banco BPM S.p.A worth?
The market values Banco BPM S.p.A at about $27.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $18.22; our models calculate a fair value of $14.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BNCZF?
Our models span a range for Banco BPM S.p.A: cautious scenario $11.47, base $14.19, optimistic $19.91 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $18.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is BNCZF from its 52-week high?
Banco BPM S.p.A trades at $18.22, about 11% below its 52-week high of $20.44 and 41% above the low of $12.89 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banco BPM S.p.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banco BPM S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $18.22, calculated fair value $14.19 (−22%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BNCZF calculated?
We run Banco BPM S.p.A through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Banco BPM S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was $18.22. Our model-based fair value is $14.19, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banco BPM S.p.A right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Banco BPM S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
The market capitalisation of Banco BPM S.p.A is $27.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Banco BPM S.p.A is 11.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banco BPM S.p.A is 3.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
Earnings per share at Banco BPM S.p.A are $1.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
The net margin of Banco BPM S.p.A is 31.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banco BPM S.p.A is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco BPM S.p.A is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
The operating margin of Banco BPM S.p.A is 53.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
Revenue at Banco BPM S.p.A is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF)?
Earnings per share at Banco BPM S.p.A are growing +89.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF) generate?
The free cash flow of Banco BPM S.p.A is −$4.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Banco BPM S.p.A (BNCZF) carry?
The net debt of Banco BPM S.p.A is $20.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026