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BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BNP Paribas SA $124, price $98.51, upside +25.9%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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BP
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
BNP Paribas SA
BNPQF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $124.06 · Undervalued (+25.9%)
✓Quality 65/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 25.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.2% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 67/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.45 – $135.00 · fair‑value band $113.06 – $150.22 · the $98.51 price screens below the $124.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
BNP Paribas SA provides various banking and financial products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three divisions: Corporate & Institutional Banking; Commercial, Personal Banking & Services; and Investment & Protection Services.
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BNP Paribas SA provides various banking and financial products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three divisions: Corporate & Institutional Banking; Commercial, Personal Banking & Services; and Investment & Protection Services. The Corporate & Institutional Banking division offers capital market, securities, financing, risk management, securities clearing, custody, consulting, transaction banking, cash management, investment banking, and financial advisory services for corporate and institutional clients. Its Commercial, Personal Banking & Services division provides financing and equipment leasing services, lending, investment, financial and non-financial services, mobility, and digital banking services, as well as current accounts, savings products, bancassurance, insurance products and services, and consumer loans. The Investment & Protection Services division provides protection, savings, investment, and real estate services to support individuals, professionals, corporate clients, and institutions, as well as asset management, insurance, protection, pensions, and private banking services. The company was formerly known as Banque Nationale de Paris and changed its name to BNP Paribas SA in May 2000. BNP Paribas SA was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF) currently trades at $98.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $124.06, implying the stock looks roughly 20.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $162.63 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $98.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $86.05, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $113.06 (bear) to $150.22 (bull), the price of $98.51 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BNP Paribas SA reported revenue of €68.8B in FY2025 versus €56.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was €12.2B in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $134B · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 1.42 · EPS (TTM) $12.30 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 17.8% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 26%, BNPQF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $113.06
Fair Value $124.06
Bull $150.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.40 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$112.95
$124.44
$153.32
76
Gordon GGM
$3.87
$7.40
$12.41
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.87
$5.88
$8.06
66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.87
$7.40
$12.41
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.87
$5.88
$8.06
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$121.97
$162.63
$203.29
63
P/B Multiple
$134.86
$179.81
$224.77
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$64.22
$86.05
$128.44
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$112.95
$124.44
$153.32
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
65/100
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Profitability
29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 21%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.0% a year for the price and −3.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−21.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.4%
Watch BNPQF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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- DOLCETTO - BNP Paribas Primary New Issues: NO STAB Notice
Compare BNP Paribas SA with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $124.06 versus a price of $98.51, about +26% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BNPQF?
Our model-based fair value for BNP Paribas SA is $124.06 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $98.51.
What is the quality score of BNPQF?
BNP Paribas SA has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $124.06 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $113.06, optimistic scenario $150.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BNP Paribas SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $124.06, about +26% upside versus a price of $98.51 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $113.06, optimistic scenario $150.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
BNP Paribas SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €49.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does BNP Paribas SA pay a dividend?
BNP Paribas SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BNP Paribas SA would have to grow free cash flow by -8.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BNPQF use?
Our models discount BNP Paribas SA at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BNP Paribas SA that is -8.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BNP Paribas SA grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies -8.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BNP Paribas SA (-8.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 45.39 %: that much free cash flow BNP Paribas SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BNP Paribas SA it is $124.06 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $98.51. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BNP Paribas SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, BNPQF trades below its calculated fair value: price $98.51, fair value $124.06, a gap of about +26% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BNPQF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($98.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($124.06). For BNP Paribas SA the two are $25.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BNP Paribas SA worth?
The market values BNP Paribas SA at about $134B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $98.51; our models calculate a fair value of $124.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BNPQF?
Our models span a range for BNP Paribas SA: cautious scenario $113.06, base $124.06, optimistic $150.22 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $98.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is BNPQF from its 52-week high?
BNP Paribas SA trades at $98.51, about 27% below its 52-week high of $135.00 and 38% above the low of $71.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $124.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BNP Paribas SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BNP Paribas SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $98.51, calculated fair value $124.06 (+26%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BNPQF calculated?
We run BNP Paribas SA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $124.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BNP Paribas SA currently trades 21 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $98.51. Our model-based fair value is $124.06, about +26% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BNP Paribas SA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($113.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of BNP Paribas SA
How large is the market capitalisation of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
The market capitalisation of BNP Paribas SA is $134B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of BNP Paribas SA is 8.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BNP Paribas SA is 1.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
Earnings per share at BNP Paribas SA are $12.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
The dividend yield of BNP Paribas SA is 5.2% (payout 42.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
The net margin of BNP Paribas SA is 17.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BNP Paribas SA is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BNP Paribas SA is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
The operating margin of BNP Paribas SA is 35.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
Revenue at BNP Paribas SA is growing +9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF)?
Earnings per share at BNP Paribas SA are growing +12.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF) carry?
The net debt of BNP Paribas SA is €68.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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