BPER Banca SpA (BPERF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of BPER Banca SpA $12.15, price $15.64, upside -22.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
8‑month range $11.51 – $16.98 · fair‑value band $8.29 – $15.20 · the $15.64 price screens above the $12.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 29, 2026.
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BPER Banca SpA engages in the provision of banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally. It offers current and saving accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, and digital banking and related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services.
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BPER Banca SpA engages in the provision of banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally. It offers current and saving accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, and digital banking and related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services. The company also provides financing and leasing, collection and payment, import and export, liquidity and investment management, digital, and other services. In addition, it offers wealth management services comprising portfolio management, consultancy, financial advice, and wealth advisory services; insurance investment products; and funds and SICAVs. The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.
Stock analysis
BPER Banca SpA (BPERF) currently trades at $15.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.15, 22.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $12.53 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $15.64 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.00, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.29 (bear) to $15.20 (bull), the price of $15.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
BPER Banca SpA reported revenue of €7.0B in FY2025 versus €4.3B in FY2022, a compound +17.4%/yr. Reported net income was €1.8B in FY2025, compounding +7.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $33.4B · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 3.37 · EPS (TTM) $1.21 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 26.1% · Return on equity 13.1% · Return on assets 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −22%, BPERF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.29Fair Value $12.15Bull $15.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4235 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.4% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−32.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.1% · Above median
Return on assets1.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)30.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)52.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.79× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.74× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF10.6× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)53· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)83· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is BPER Banca SpA (BPERF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.15 versus a price of $15.64, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPERF?
Our model-based fair value for BPER Banca SpA is $12.15 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.64.
What is the quality score of BPERF?
BPER Banca SpA has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.15 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.29, optimistic scenario $15.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BPER Banca SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.15, about −22% upside versus a price of $15.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.29, optimistic scenario $15.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
BPER Banca SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does BPER Banca SpA pay a dividend?
BPER Banca SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BPER Banca SpA would have to grow free cash flow by -17.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +17.4 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BPERF use?
Our models discount BPER Banca SpA at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BPER Banca SpA that is -17.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BPER Banca SpA (BPERF) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at BPER Banca SpA grew +17.4 % a year. The price currently implies -17.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BPER Banca SpA (-17.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.31 %: that much free cash flow BPER Banca SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BPER Banca SpA it is $12.15 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $15.64. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BPER Banca SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, BPERF trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.64, fair value $12.15, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPERF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.15). For BPER Banca SpA the two are $3.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BPER Banca SpA worth?
The market values BPER Banca SpA at about $33.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $15.64; our models calculate a fair value of $12.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPERF?
Our models span a range for BPER Banca SpA: cautious scenario $8.29, base $12.15, optimistic $15.20 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $15.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BPERF?
BPER Banca SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
Balance-sheet figures for BPER Banca SpA (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 13.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to BPER Banca SpA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BPER Banca SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $15.64, calculated fair value $12.15 (−22%), Quality Score 48/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPERF calculated?
We run BPER Banca SpA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BPER Banca SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was $15.64. Our model-based fair value is $12.15, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BPER Banca SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($8.29 to $15.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of BPER Banca SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
The market capitalisation of BPER Banca SpA is $33.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BPER Banca SpA is 3.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
Earnings per share at BPER Banca SpA are $1.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
The dividend yield of BPER Banca SpA is 4.2% (payout 53.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
The net margin of BPER Banca SpA is 26.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BPER Banca SpA is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
The return on assets (ROA) of BPER Banca SpA is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
The operating margin of BPER Banca SpA is 52.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
Revenue at BPER Banca SpA is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BPER Banca SpA (BPERF)?
Earnings per share at BPER Banca SpA are growing −14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BPER Banca SpA (BPERF) carry?
The net debt of BPER Banca SpA is €11.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026