Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

BT Group (BTGOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BT Group $2.16, price $2.46, upside -12.2%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Communication Services · US · ISIN GB0030913577

Broad data Sep 29, 2026

BT Group

BTGOF · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $2.16 · Overvalued (−12.2%)

!Quality 50/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.6 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 5.5% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

✓3.4% dividend yield · Well covered

!Moderate moat 45/100

26 models, one by oneBear $1.49 to bull $3.99 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 50/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.07 – $3.18 · fair‑value band $1.49 – $3.99 · the $2.46 price screens above the $2.16 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

BT Group plc provides communications products and services in the United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Consumer, Business, International, and Openreach segments. It builds, owns, and operates fixed and mobile networks; and designs, builds, markets, sells, and supports network access, connectivity, and related products. The company also offers mobile, broadband, and landline, as well as entertainment services to individuals and households; connectivity, networking, cybersecurity, collaboration tools, cloud connectivity, and cloud services to private and public sector businesses; and managed solutions for larger businesses and public sector customers. In addition, it provides fixed and IP voice; unified communications; mobile; fixed and networking; managed services; and security, and cloud and IoT solutions. Further, the company develops, manages, and leases network infrastructure, including mobile cell and switch sites; and offers handsets, network equipment, consumer electronics, gaming and insurance. It provides its products and services under the BT, EE, Plusnet, and Openreach brands. The company was formerly known as Newgate Telecommunications Limited and changed its name to BT Group plc in September 2001. BT Group plc was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

BT Group (BTGOF) currently trades at $2.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.16, 12.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.19 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $2.46 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.09, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $1.49 (bear) to $3.99 (bull), the price of $2.46 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

BT Group reported revenue of £19.7B in FY2026 versus £20.9B in FY2022, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was £1.1B in FY2026, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $26.7B · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −12%, BTGOF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.49 Fair Value $2.16 Bull $3.99

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0341 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income $1.45 $1.57 $1.78 76

EPV $1.44 $2.08 $2.64 73

5Y EBITDA Exit $3.88 $7.75 $12.91 72

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $0.2700 $1.30 $3.22 70

Owner Earnings $0.0300 $0.9600 $2.71 65

5Y Revenue Exit $0.9500 $2.70 $5.26 67

5Y EBITDA Exit $3.88 $7.75 $12.91 72

5Y P/E Exit n/a $0.8800 $2.07 68

10Y Revenue Exit $0.5500 $1.86 $3.30 63

10Y EBITDA Exit $2.44 $5.01 $7.84 66

10Y P/E Exit $0.0200 $0.7300 $1.40 58

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $0.9900 $1.26 $1.44 67

EPV $1.44 $2.08 $2.64 73

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $1.00 $1.09 $1.24 69

DDM Multi-Stage $1.00 $1.26 $1.63 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $2.39 $3.19 $3.99 63

P/S Multiple $1.85 $2.47 $3.08 58

P/B Multiple $1.85 $2.47 $3.08 55

EV/EBIT $3.02 $4.82 $6.62 64

EV/EBITDA $7.55 $10.86 $14.17 67

EV/Revenue $1.71 $3.47 $5.22 51

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.8500 $1.13 $1.69 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $0.3900 $1.39 $3.11 71

Rev-Margin DCF $0.9500 $2.76 $4.97 68

Economic Profit

Residual Income $1.45 $1.57 $1.78 76

ROIC Compounder $1.44 $2.13 $2.92 71

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $1.69 $2.41 $3.13 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 27

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 41

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 58

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 17

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 67

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 59

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 32

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 25

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 94

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100

Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Revenue growth 1 year

−3.2%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−1.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−1.6%

Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year

Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.2%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−2.1%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−5.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.5% vs −8.2%, steady

Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 17%

Start year 2021 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+16.0%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

−0.2%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.3% a year for the price and −2.4% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2027 (sales)−2.4%

Forecast 2028 (sales)+0.0%

Projected 2029 (sales)+0.3%

Projected 2030 (sales)+0.5%

Projected 2031 (sales)+0.8%

BTGOF screens overvalued: fair value 12% below the price. Compare with China Mobile Limited →

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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 237 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 50 · Below median

Fair Value upside −26.2% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 8.5% · Above median

Return on assets 4.0% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 5.5% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 15.9% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −3.9% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.4% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.44× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.4× · Cheaper than median

P/B 2.12× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 1.36× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 28.2× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 6.8× · Cheaper than median

PEG 1.34× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
China Mobile Limited 80941	HK$67.30	HK$114.85	+71%
Verizon Communications Inc VZ	$45.87	$70.27	+53%
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS	$162.98	$272.88	+67%
AT&T Inc T	$24.48	$51.11	+109%
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL	₹1,741	₹1,883	+8%
China Telecom Corporation 601728	¥6.16	¥8.36	+36%
Saudi Telecom Company 7010	43.22 SAR	41.80 SAR	−3%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z74	4.28 SGD	2.16 SGD	−50%
Swisscom AG SCMN	CHF 639.00	CHF 505.18	−21%
Telstra Group TLS	A$4.83	A$4.43	−8%

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BT Group · Fair Value
$2.16 −12%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTGOF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">BT Group · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$2.16</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−12%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BT Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTGOF

Frequently asked questions

Is BT Group (BTGOF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.16 versus a price of $2.46, about −12% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of BTGOF?

Our model-based fair value for BT Group is $2.16 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.46.

What is the quality score of BTGOF?

BT Group has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for BT Group (BTGOF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.16 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.49, optimistic scenario $3.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the BT Group stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $2.16, about −12% upside versus a price of $2.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.49, optimistic scenario $3.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of BT Group (BTGOF)?

BT Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £19.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).

Does BT Group pay a dividend?

BT Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).

What growth is priced into BT Group (BTGOF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BT Group would have to grow free cash flow by +16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BTGOF use?

Our models discount BT Group at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BT Group that is +16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has BT Group (BTGOF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at BT Group grew -1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of BT Group (BTGOF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BT Group (+16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of BT Group (BTGOF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.20 %: that much free cash flow BT Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of BT Group (BTGOF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BT Group it is $2.16 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $2.46. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is BT Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 29, 2026, BTGOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.46, fair value $2.16, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BTGOF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.16). For BT Group the two are $0.3000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is BT Group worth?

The market values BT Group at about $26.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $2.46; our models calculate a fair value of $2.16 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BTGOF?

Our models span a range for BT Group: cautious scenario $1.49, base $2.16, optimistic $3.99 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $2.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of BTGOF?

BT Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.1, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 6.8.

What is the PEG ratio of BTGOF?

The PEG ratio of BT Group is 1.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of BT Group (BTGOF)?

Balance-sheet figures for BT Group (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 1.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is BTGOF from its 52-week high?

BT Group trades at $2.46, about 23% below its 52-week high of $3.18 and 12% above the low of $2.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.16 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to BT Group?

From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is BT Group stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $2.46, calculated fair value $2.16 (−12%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of BTGOF calculated?

We run BT Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BT Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of BT Group (BTGOF)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.46. Our model-based fair value is $2.16, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with BT Group right now?

The model range is unusually wide ($1.49 to $3.99). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Where does the earnings growth of BT Group (BTGOF) come from?

Earnings per share at BT Group grew −9.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.8 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of BT Group

How large is the market capitalisation of BT Group (BTGOF)?

The market capitalisation of BT Group is $26.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of BT Group (BTGOF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of BT Group is 0.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of BT Group (BTGOF)?

Earnings per share at BT Group are $0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of BT Group (BTGOF)?

The dividend yield of BT Group is 3.4% (payout 55.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of BT Group (BTGOF)?

The net margin of BT Group is 5.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of BT Group (BTGOF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of BT Group is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of BT Group (BTGOF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BT Group is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of BT Group (BTGOF)?

The operating margin of BT Group is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at BT Group (BTGOF)?

Revenue at BT Group is growing −3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at BT Group (BTGOF)?

Earnings per share at BT Group are growing +40.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does BT Group (BTGOF) carry?

The net debt of BT Group is £22.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 23.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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