First Busey Corporation (BUSE) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $2.5B

Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.94 – $31.58 · fair‑value band $13.25 – $22.09 · the $30.98 price screens above the $17.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

First Busey Corporation (BUSE) currently trades at $30.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.67, implying the stock looks roughly 43.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, First Busey Corporation generated revenue of $781M at a net margin of 27.6%. Revenue grew 143.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at $309M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $13.25 (bear case) to $22.09 (bull case); at $30.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -43%, BUSE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($23.08) versus Dividend Discount ($16.27). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

First Busey Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Busey Bank that engages in the provision of retail and commercial banking products and services to individual, corporate, institutional, and governmental customers in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Wealth Management, and FirsTech.

Full company description

First Busey Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Busey Bank that engages in the provision of retail and commercial banking products and services to individual, corporate, institutional, and governmental customers in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Wealth Management, and FirsTech. It offers demand and savings deposits, money transfers, safe deposit services, individual retirement accounts and other fiduciary services, automated teller machines, and technology-based networks, as well as various loan products, including residential real estate, home equity lines of credit, and consumer loans to individual customers; and commercial, commercial real estate, real estate construction, and agricultural loans, as well as cash management services to corporate customers. The company also provides asset management, investment, brokerage, fiduciary, philanthropic advisory, tax preparation, and farm management services; trust and estate advisory services and financial planning; succession planning and employee retirement plan; and investment strategy consulting services to individuals, businesses, and foundations. In addition, its payment technology solution offers text-based mobile bill pay; interactive voice response; electronic payment concentration delivered to automated clearing house networks, money management, and credit card networks; walk-in payment processing for customers at retail pay agents; customer service payments made over a telephone; direct debit services; merchant services referral solutions; lockbox remittance processing for customers to make payments by mail; and tools for billing, reconciliation, bill reminders, and treasury services. The company was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Leawood, Kansas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

First Busey Corporation reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $432M in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $135M in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.

BUSE screens 43% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• First Busey (BUSE) Q2 Earnings Top Estimates Yahoo Finance · Jul 28, 2026
• First Busey (BUSE) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates Yahoo Finance · Jul 28, 2026
• First Busey (NASDAQ:BUSE) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 CY2026 Earnings Yahoo Finance · Jul 28, 2026
• First Busey Corporation Announces 2026 Second Quarter Earnings Yahoo Finance · Jul 28, 2026

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.