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First Busey Corp (BUSE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of First Busey Corp $18.14, price $29.64, upside -38.8%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US3193832041

FB First Busey Corp logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

First Busey Corp

BUSE · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $18.14 · Strongly overvalued (−39%)
!Quality 35/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +18.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.41% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/15)
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Insider activity 46/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$31.58 $14.94 Fair Value $18.14 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.94 – $31.58 · fair‑value band $13.61 – $19.98 · the $29.64 price screens above the $18.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

First Busey Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Busey Bank that engages in the provision of retail and commercial banking products and services to individual, corporate, institutional, and governmental customers in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Wealth Management, and FirsTech.

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First Busey Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Busey Bank that engages in the provision of retail and commercial banking products and services to individual, corporate, institutional, and governmental customers in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Wealth Management, and FirsTech. It offers demand and savings deposits, money transfers, safe deposit services, individual retirement accounts and other fiduciary services, automated teller machines, and technology-based networks, as well as various loan products, including residential real estate, home equity lines of credit, and consumer loans to individual customers; and commercial, commercial real estate, real estate construction, and agricultural loans, as well as cash management services to corporate customers. The company also provides asset management, investment, brokerage, fiduciary, philanthropic advisory, tax preparation, and farm management services; trust and estate advisory services and financial planning; succession planning and employee retirement plan; and investment strategy consulting services to individuals, businesses, and foundations. In addition, its payment technology solution offers text-based mobile bill pay; interactive voice response; electronic payment concentration delivered to automated clearing house networks, money management, and credit card networks; walk-in payment processing for customers at retail pay agents; customer service payments made over a telephone; direct debit services; merchant services referral solutions; lockbox remittance processing for customers to make payments by mail; and tools for billing, reconciliation, bill reminders, and treasury services. The company was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Leawood, Kansas.

Stock analysis

First Busey Corp (BUSE) currently trades at $29.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.14, implying the stock looks roughly 63.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $23.08 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $29.64 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $16.27, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $13.61 (bear) to $19.98 (bull), the price of $29.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

First Busey Corp reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $432M in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $135M in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.6B · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 1.58 · EPS (TTM) $2.43 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −39%, BUSE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.61 Fair Value $18.14 Bull $19.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.04 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $22.53 $23.08 $22.53 76
Gordon GGM $9.45 $18.83 $28.51 67
DDM Multi-Stage $9.45 $16.27 $19.87 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.45 $18.83 $28.51 67
DDM Multi-Stage $9.45 $16.27 $19.87 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $15.59 $20.79 $25.99 63
P/B Multiple $20.39 $27.19 $33.98 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $14.60 $19.56 $29.19 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $22.53 $23.08 $22.53 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+57.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.0% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs 1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.1% a year for the price and −5.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−23.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.6%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −39% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 28% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 36% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 143% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.12× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.07× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.39× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 15.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 13.4× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.91× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)37 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)68 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.80 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.65 HK$64.29 +24%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹738.60 ₹418.52 −43%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Busey Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BUSE

Frequently asked questions

Is First Busey Corp (BUSE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.14 versus a price of $29.64, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BUSE?
Our model-based fair value for First Busey Corp is $18.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.64.
What is the quality score of BUSE?
First Busey Corp has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.61, optimistic scenario $19.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Busey Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.14, about −39% upside versus a price of $29.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.61, optimistic scenario $19.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
First Busey Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $781M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does First Busey Corp pay a dividend?
First Busey Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Busey Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BUSE use?
Our models discount First Busey Corp at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Busey Corp that is +3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Busey Corp (BUSE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Busey Corp grew +18.6 % a year. The price currently implies +3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Busey Corp (BUSE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Busey Corp (+3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.58 %: that much free cash flow First Busey Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Busey Corp it is $18.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $29.64. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Busey Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BUSE trades above its calculated fair value: price $29.64, fair value $18.14, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BUSE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.14). For First Busey Corp the two are $11.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Busey Corp worth?
The market values First Busey Corp at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $29.64; our models calculate a fair value of $18.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BUSE?
Our models span a range for First Busey Corp: cautious scenario $13.61, base $18.14, optimistic $19.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $29.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BUSE?
First Busey Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 1.1, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BUSE?
The PEG ratio of First Busey Corp is 1.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Busey Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BUSE from its 52-week high?
First Busey Corp trades at $29.64, about 6% below its 52-week high of $31.58 and 38% above the low of $21.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Busey Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Busey Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $29.64, calculated fair value $18.14 (−39%), Quality Score 35/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BUSE calculated?
We run First Busey Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. First Busey Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $29.64. Our model-based fair value is $18.14, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Busey Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First Busey Corp (BUSE) come from?
Earnings per share at First Busey Corp grew +2.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin −4.7 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of First Busey Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
The market capitalisation of First Busey Corp is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Busey Corp is 1.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
Earnings per share at First Busey Corp are $2.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
The dividend yield of First Busey Corp is 3.4% (payout 41.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
The net margin of First Busey Corp is 13.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Busey Corp is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Busey Corp is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
The operating margin of First Busey Corp is 36.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
Revenue at First Busey Corp is growing +143% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Busey Corp (BUSE)?
Earnings per share at First Busey Corp are growing +26.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does First Busey Corp (BUSE) carry?
The net debt of First Busey Corp is $309M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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