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Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Citizens Financial Group BRL 249, price BRL 337, upside -25.9%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · BR · ISIN US1746101054

CF Broad data Oct 3, 2026

Citizens Financial Group

C1FG34 · SA

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value R$249.48 · Overvalued (−25.9%)
✓Quality 68/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y +0.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 25.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.5% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 65/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$392.73 R$106.66 Fair Value R$249.48 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$106.66 – R$392.73 · fair‑value band R$204.17 – R$265.24 · the R$336.60 price screens above the R$249.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals, small businesses, middle-market companies, large corporations, and institutions in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Consumer Banking and Commercial Banking.

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Citizens Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals, small businesses, middle-market companies, large corporations, and institutions in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Consumer Banking and Commercial Banking. The Consumer Banking segment offers deposit products, mortgage and home equity lending products, credit cards, business loans, and wealth management services; and education and point-of-sale finance loans, as well as digital deposit products. This segment serves its customers through telephone service centers, as well as through its online and mobile platforms. The Commercial Banking segment provides various financial products and solutions, including lending and leasing, deposit and treasury management services, foreign exchange, and interest rate and commodity risk management solutions, as well as syndicated loans, corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, and debt and equity capital markets services. The company serves customers and small businesses, high- and ultra-high-net-worth individuals and families, as well as investors, entrepreneurs, and companies and institutions, as well as multifamily, office, industrial, retail, healthcare, and hospitality sectors. The company was formerly known as RBS Citizens Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Citizens Financial Group, Inc. in April 2014. Citizens Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1828 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.

Stock analysis

Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34) currently trades at R$336.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$249.48, 25.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$293.95 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$336.60 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$128.80, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$204.17 (bear) to R$265.24 (bull), the price of R$336.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Citizens Financial Group reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $8.0B in FY2022, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap R$144B (≈ $27.7B) · P/E ratio 15.4 · P/S ratio 3.42 · EPS (TTM) R$21.85 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 22.2% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets 0.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −26%, C1FG34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$204.17 Fair Value R$249.48 Bull R$265.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$15.19 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$266.27 R$281.10 R$307.28 73
Gordon GGM R$100.69 R$128.80 R$157.66 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$100.69 R$136.58 R$180.17 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$100.69 R$128.80 R$157.66 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$100.69 R$136.58 R$180.17 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$220.46 R$293.95 R$367.44 63
P/B Multiple R$288.30 R$384.40 R$480.50 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$162.50 R$217.75 R$325.00 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$266.27 R$281.10 R$307.28 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.4% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+10.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.2%

C1FG34 screens overvalued: fair value 26% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €79.53 €77.12 −3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.05 $6.82 −38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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Citizens Financial Group · Fair Value
R$249.48 −26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Citizens Financial Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/C1FG34

Frequently asked questions

Is Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$249.48 versus a price of R$336.60, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of C1FG34?
Our model-based fair value for Citizens Financial Group is R$249.48 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$336.60.
What is the quality score of C1FG34?
Citizens Financial Group has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$249.48 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$204.17, optimistic scenario R$265.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Citizens Financial Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$249.48, about −26% upside versus a price of R$336.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$204.17, optimistic scenario R$265.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
Citizens Financial Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Citizens Financial Group pay a dividend?
Citizens Financial Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Citizens Financial Group would have to grow free cash flow by +5.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +0.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of C1FG34 use?
Our models discount Citizens Financial Group at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Citizens Financial Group that is +5.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Citizens Financial Group grew +0.9 % a year. The price currently implies +5.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Citizens Financial Group (+5.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.36 %: that much free cash flow Citizens Financial Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Citizens Financial Group it is R$249.48 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$336.60. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Citizens Financial Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, C1FG34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$336.60, fair value R$249.48, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of C1FG34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$336.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$249.48). For Citizens Financial Group the two are R$87.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Citizens Financial Group worth?
The market values Citizens Financial Group at about R$144B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$336.60; our models calculate a fair value of R$249.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about C1FG34?
Our models span a range for Citizens Financial Group: cautious scenario R$204.17, base R$249.48, optimistic R$265.24 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$336.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is C1FG34 from its 52-week high?
Citizens Financial Group trades at R$336.60, about 14% below its 52-week high of R$392.73 and 31% above the low of R$256.85 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$249.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Citizens Financial Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Citizens Financial Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$336.60, calculated fair value R$249.48 (−26%), Quality Score 68/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of C1FG34 calculated?
We run Citizens Financial Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$249.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Citizens Financial Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$336.60. Our model-based fair value is R$249.48, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Citizens Financial Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$265.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Citizens Financial Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The market capitalisation of Citizens Financial Group is R$144B (≈ $27.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Citizens Financial Group is 15.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Citizens Financial Group is 3.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
Earnings per share at Citizens Financial Group are R$21.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The dividend yield of Citizens Financial Group is 0.5% (payout 8.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The net margin of Citizens Financial Group is 22.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Citizens Financial Group is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Citizens Financial Group is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
The operating margin of Citizens Financial Group is 32.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
Revenue at Citizens Financial Group is growing +13.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34)?
Earnings per share at Citizens Financial Group are growing +46.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Citizens Financial Group (C1FG34) carry?
The net debt of Citizens Financial Group is $1.2B (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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