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CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CanSino Biologics Inc $0.74, price $4.65, upside -84.1%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · Home Hong Kong

CB CanSino Biologics Inc logo Thin data Oct 1, 2026

CanSino Biologics Inc

CASBF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Low debt
Quality 46/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +110.6 %/yr in USD)
Loss over the last twelve months · -0.1% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 2.6%
Fair value $0.7400 · Strongly overvalued (−84.1%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/13)
Narrow moat 14/100
Thin data
Structural break
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$52.58 $1.86 Fair Value $0.7400 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.86 – $52.58 · fair‑value band $0.5200 – $0.9700 · the $4.65 price screens above the $0.7400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

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Company profile

CanSino Biologics Inc. develops, manufactures, and commercializes vaccines in the People's Republic of China. The company develops Convidecia and the Ad5-nCoV for Inhalation vaccines to recombinant novel coronavirus disease; Ad5-EBOV, an Ebola virus vaccine; and MCV2 and MCV4 vaccines for the prevention of N. meningitides.

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CanSino Biologics Inc. develops, manufactures, and commercializes vaccines in the People's Republic of China. The company develops Convidecia and the Ad5-nCoV for Inhalation vaccines to recombinant novel coronavirus disease; Ad5-EBOV, an Ebola virus vaccine; and MCV2 and MCV4 vaccines for the prevention of N. meningitides. It develops DTcP vaccine for infants and DTcP Booster vaccine, which are in Phase I clinical trial for addressing the weaker protection preventing pertussis after primary vaccination. In addition, it develops Tdcp Adolescent and Adult vaccine for treating pertussis; PBPV, a serotype-independent protein-based pneumococcal vaccine that is in Phase I clinical trial; PCV13i, a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, which is in Phase I clinical trial; and TB Booster for the BCG-vaccinated population which is in Phase I clinical trial. Further, it is developing various preclinical stage products, including DTcP-Hib Combo vaccine; CS-2023 to treat meningitis; CS-2028 for treating multivalent conjugate vaccine; CS-2032 for hingles; CS-2036 to treat polio; CS-2047 for treating tetanus; and CS-2201 DTcP for combination vaccine. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Tianjin, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF) currently trades at $4.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7400, 84.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $1.95 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $4.65 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.2700, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.5200 (bear) to $0.9700 (bull), the price of $4.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

CanSino Biologics Inc reported revenue of 1.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −30.0%/yr. Reported net income was 27.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −65.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.2B · P/E ratio 155.0 · P/S ratio 4.08 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 0.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −84%, CASBF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5200 Fair Value $0.7400 Bull $0.9700
Price $4.65 · Upside -84.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0152 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $1.86 $1.71 $1.60 73
Owner Earnings $0.6100 $1.10 $1.99 70
EV/EBITDA $0.5400 $0.6700 $0.7900 66
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $0.6100 $1.10 $1.99 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.1100 $0.7600 $1.06 58
Lynch FV $0.3900 $0.5600 $0.7300 57
PEG = 1.0 $0.3900 $0.5600 $0.7300 53
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.2900 $0.5300 $0.7200 63
DDM Multi-Stage $0.2900 $0.4800 $0.5600 63
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.2600 $0.3500 $0.4400 61
P/S Multiple $0.2000 $0.2700 $0.3400 56
P/B Multiple $0.2000 $0.2700 $0.3400 53
EV/EBITDA $0.5400 $0.6700 $0.7900 66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.46 $1.95 $2.92 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.86 $1.71 $1.60 73
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.5200 $0.7400 $0.9700 64

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 25
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 64
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+110.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+71.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−49.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−57.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1,598% → −11%

CASBF screens overvalued: fair value 84% below the price. Compare with Merck KGaA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 604 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −84.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −0.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −15.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 38.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.19× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 155.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.24× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.05× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 15.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €134.45 €108.94 −19%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $17.86 $11.35 −36%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $39.31 $20.88 −47%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,852 ₹1,979 +7%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 163.00 CHF 110.32 −32%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥44.86 ¥49.35 +10%
Haleon plc HLN $9.26 $8.49 −8%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 71.16 CHF 40.32 −43%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $70.30 $110.50 +57%
Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB ₹9,620 ₹1,871 −81%

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CanSino Biologics Inc · Fair Value
$0.7400 −84%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CanSino Biologics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CASBF

Frequently asked questions

Is CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7400 versus a price of $4.65, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CASBF?
Our model-based fair value for CanSino Biologics Inc is $0.7400 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.65.
What is the quality score of CASBF?
CanSino Biologics Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7400 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5200, optimistic scenario $0.9700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CanSino Biologics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7400, about −84% upside versus a price of $4.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5200, optimistic scenario $0.9700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
CanSino Biologics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does CanSino Biologics Inc pay a dividend?
CanSino Biologics Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.33% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CanSino Biologics Inc it is $0.7400 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of $4.65. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CanSino Biologics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, CASBF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.65, fair value $0.7400, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CASBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7400). For CanSino Biologics Inc the two are $3.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CanSino Biologics Inc worth?
The market values CanSino Biologics Inc at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is $4.65; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CASBF?
Our models span a range for CanSino Biologics Inc: cautious scenario $0.5200, base $0.7400, optimistic $0.9700 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price $4.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CASBF?
CanSino Biologics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 155.0 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.7400 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 15.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
Balance-sheet figures for CanSino Biologics Inc (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 0.0%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CASBF from its 52-week high?
CanSino Biologics Inc trades at $4.65, about 33% below its 52-week high of $6.99 and 79% above the low of $2.60 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CanSino Biologics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CanSino Biologics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price $4.65, calculated fair value $0.7400 (−84%), Quality Score 46/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CASBF calculated?
We run CanSino Biologics Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. CanSino Biologics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.65. Our model-based fair value is $0.7400, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CanSino Biologics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.5200 to $0.9700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of CanSino Biologics Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
The market capitalisation of CanSino Biologics Inc is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CanSino Biologics Inc is 4.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
Earnings per share at CanSino Biologics Inc are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 155.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
The dividend yield of CanSino Biologics Inc is 8.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
The net margin of CanSino Biologics Inc is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CanSino Biologics Inc is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CanSino Biologics Inc is −4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
The operating margin of CanSino Biologics Inc is −15.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
Revenue at CanSino Biologics Inc is growing +38.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF)?
Earnings per share at CanSino Biologics Inc are growing +11.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF) generate?
The free cash flow of CanSino Biologics Inc is −$153M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does CanSino Biologics Inc (CASBF) carry?
The net debt of CanSino Biologics Inc is $52.8M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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