Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · AU · Market cap A$282B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +7.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$98.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$75.52 – A$186.00 · fair‑value band A$58.99 – A$98.31 · the A$179.87 price screens above the A$78.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) currently trades at A$179.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$78.65, implying the stock looks roughly 56.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Commonwealth Bank of Australia generated revenue of A$28.5B at a net margin of 36.4%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.6%. Net debt stands at A$161B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$58.99 (bear case) to A$98.31 (bull case); at A$179.87, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -56%, CBA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$111.61) versus Economic Profit (A$15.15). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides retail and commercial banking services in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking Services, Business Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, and New Zealand segments.
Full company description
Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides retail and commercial banking services in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking Services, Business Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, and New Zealand segments. The company offers savings and term deposit accounts, commonwealth direct investment accounts, and retail transaction accounts, as well as specialized accounts, such as statutory trust, society cheque, farm management, cash and treasury management, and business foreign currency deposit accounts. It also provides credit cards, personal and business loans, car and equipment finance, business overdrafts, margin lending, and international payment services; home loans; and buy-now-pay-later services. In addition, the company provides home and contents, car, health, life, income protection, pet, and travel insurance products. Further, it offers transaction banking, equity trading, and risk management products and services, as well as access to debt capital markets, capital raising, and investment and financial solutions. Commonwealth Bank of Australia was founded in 1911 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported revenue of A$69.7B in FY2025 versus A$29.4B in FY2021, a compound +24.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$10.1B in FY2025, compounding −0.2%/yr from FY2021.
CBA screens 56% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AI Is Replacing Customer Service Jobs at CBA, Microsoft, Uber
- archTIS extends A$4 million CBA facility to support contract execution and growth
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia appoints new CIO, CTO to boost technology, AI strategy
- Did Profit Uptick and RBA Countdown Just Shift Commonwealth Bank's (ASX:CBA) Investment Narrative?
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $341.10 | $278.99 | -18% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $59.67 | $55.89 | -6% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.16 | ¥17.20 | +69% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.50 | ¥13.44 | +79% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $100.52 | $84.67 | -16% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.37 | ¥11.85 | +86% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$305.74 | C$190.48 | -38% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.88 | ¥9.80 | +67% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFCS | C$23.58 | C$27.40 | +16% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 51.02 PLN | 55.60 PLN | +9% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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