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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Commonwealth Bank of Australia $48.40, price $107, upside -54.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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CB
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
CBAUF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $48.40 · Strongly overvalued (−54.6%)
!Quality 48/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 36.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!4.6% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
✓Wide moat 73/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.43 – $125.60 · fair‑value band $32.74 – $60.49 · the $106.54 price screens above the $48.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides retail and commercial banking services in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking Services, Business Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, and New Zealand segments.
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Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides retail and commercial banking services in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking Services, Business Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, and New Zealand segments. The company offers savings and term deposit accounts, commonwealth direct investment accounts, and retail transaction accounts, as well as specialized accounts, such as statutory trust, society cheque, farm management, cash and treasury management, and business foreign currency deposit accounts. It also provides credit cards, personal and business loans, car and equipment finance, business overdrafts, margin lending, and international payment services; home loans; and buy-now-pay-later services. In addition, the company provides home and contents, car, health, life, income protection, pet, and travel insurance products. Further, it offers transaction banking, equity trading, and risk management products and services, as well as access to debt capital markets, capital raising, and investment and financial solutions. Commonwealth Bank of Australia was founded in 1911 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF) currently trades at $106.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.40, 54.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $56.90 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $106.54 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.96, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $32.74 (bear) to $60.49 (bull), the price of $106.54 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported revenue of A$69.7B in FY2025 versus A$23.7B in FY2021, a compound +31.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$10.1B in FY2025, compounding −0.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $207B · P/E ratio 24.3 · P/S ratio 3.52 · EPS (TTM) $4.39 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 14.5% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −55%, CBAUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $32.74
Fair Value $48.40
Bull $60.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$31.61
$37.75
$49.94
76
DDM Multi-Stage
$31.81
$56.90
$72.39
66
Gordon GGM
$31.81
$69.46
$116.86
65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$31.81
$69.46
$116.86
65
DDM Multi-Stage
$31.81
$56.90
$72.39
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$41.04
$54.72
$68.40
63
P/B Multiple
$34.42
$45.89
$57.36
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$16.39
$21.96
$32.78
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$31.61
$37.75
$49.94
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Profitability
29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+167.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.6% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.6% vs 1.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
CBAUF screens overvalued: fair value 55% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Compare Commonwealth Bank of Australia with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $330.83 | $188.11 | −43% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥8.28 | ¥10.93 | +32% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.98 | ¥13.69 | +25% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $55.47 | $42.37 | −24% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.97 | ¥12.94 | +86% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.62 | ¥9.86 | +49% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | $200.95 | $130.85 | −35% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $23.37 | $14.86 | −36% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $80.05 | $66.44 | −17% |
| Citigroup Inc C | $130.80 | $107.10 | −18% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.40 versus a price of $106.54, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CBAUF?
Our model-based fair value for Commonwealth Bank of Australia is $48.40 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $106.54.
What is the quality score of CBAUF?
Commonwealth Bank of Australia has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.40 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $32.74, optimistic scenario $60.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.40, about −55% upside versus a price of $106.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $32.74, optimistic scenario $60.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$28.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Commonwealth Bank of Australia pay a dividend?
Commonwealth Bank of Australia currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Commonwealth Bank of Australia it is $48.40 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $106.54. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CBAUF trades above its calculated fair value: price $106.54, fair value $48.40, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CBAUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($106.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.40). For Commonwealth Bank of Australia the two are $58.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Commonwealth Bank of Australia worth?
The market values Commonwealth Bank of Australia at about $207B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $106.54; our models calculate a fair value of $48.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CBAUF?
Our models span a range for Commonwealth Bank of Australia: cautious scenario $32.74, base $48.40, optimistic $60.49 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $106.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CBAUF?
Commonwealth Bank of Australia trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.3 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $48.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.5, P/B 2.6, P/S 7.3, EV/EBITDA 11.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CBAUF?
The PEG ratio of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is 3.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Commonwealth Bank of Australia (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CBAUF from its 52-week high?
Commonwealth Bank of Australia trades at $106.54, about 15% below its 52-week high of $125.60 and 12% above the low of $95.31 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Commonwealth Bank of Australia?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $106.54, calculated fair value $48.40 (−55%), Quality Score 48/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CBAUF calculated?
We run Commonwealth Bank of Australia through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Commonwealth Bank of Australia itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $106.54. Our model-based fair value is $48.40, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Commonwealth Bank of Australia right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($60.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($32.74 to $60.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF) come from?
Earnings per share at Commonwealth Bank of Australia grew +0.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.3 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Commonwealth Bank of Australia
How large is the market capitalisation of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
The market capitalisation of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is $207B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is 3.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
Earnings per share at Commonwealth Bank of Australia are $4.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
The dividend yield of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is 4.6% (payout 113%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
The net margin of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is 14.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
The operating margin of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is 55.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
Revenue at Commonwealth Bank of Australia is growing +6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF)?
Earnings per share at Commonwealth Bank of Australia are growing +4.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF) generate?
The free cash flow of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is −A$2.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF) carry?
The net debt of Commonwealth Bank of Australia is A$161B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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