Commerce Bancshares, Inc (CBSH) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $8.5B
Commerce Bancshares, Inc
CBSH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $50.50 to $51.16 (+1.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +2.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.52 – $65.21 · fair‑value band $38.37 – $63.95 · the $59.08 price screens above the $51.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Commerce Bancshares, Inc (CBSH) currently trades at $59.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.16, implying the stock looks roughly 13.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Commerce Bancshares, Inc generated revenue of $1.8B at a net margin of 32.3%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at $2.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.37 (bear case) to $63.95 (bull case); at $59.08, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -13%, CBSH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($36.89) versus Dividend Discount ($13.38). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, Commercial, and Wealth.
Full company description
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, Commercial, and Wealth. The Retail Banking segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; retail branch network; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Commerce Bancshares, Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was $566M in FY2025, compounding +1.6%/yr from FY2021.
CBSH screens 13% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Commerce Bancshares declares $0.275 dividend
- Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend on Common Stock
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 54/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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