Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Commerce Bancshares Inc stock $33.25, price $55.04, that is 39.6% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Commerce Bancshares Inc
CBSH · USOur calculation puts a fair price 40% below what the stock costs today.
Risks from the AI analysis
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.52 – $65.21 · fair‑value band $26.77 – $46.53 · the $55.04 price screens above the $33.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Company profile
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States.
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It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, Commercial, and Wealth.
The Retail Banking segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; retail branch network; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards.
The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals.
The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts.
The company offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.
Stock analysis
Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) currently trades at $55.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.25, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $43.39 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $55.04 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $16.06, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $26.77 (bear) to $46.53 (bull), the price of $55.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Commerce Bancshares Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was $566M in FY2025, compounding +1.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.9B Mid · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 4.31 · EPS (TTM) $4.12 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 31.6% · Return on equity 14.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −40%, CBSH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 6 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.0M and none bought.
- SaleDouglas D NeffSenior Vice President666 shares at $58.15$38,728Aug 27, 2026
- SaleDavid L OrfExec. Vice President & CCO642 shares at $60.35$38,745Aug 14, 2026
- SaleDavid L. RollerSenior Vice President3× since Feb 3, 2026: 4,056 shares, avg. $55.07$223,358Aug 4, 2026
- SaleRobert S HolmesExecutive Vice President5,000 shares at $60.20$301,000Jul 30, 2026
- SaleJohn W KemperPresident and CEO, Director2× since Feb 5, 2026: 29,227 shares, avg. $55.30$1.6MJul 29, 2026
- SaleDerrick BrooksSenior Vice President2× since Feb 4, 2026: 2,085 shares, avg. $57.02$118,879Jul 28, 2026
- SaleCharles G KimExec. Vice President and CFO19,771 shares at $59.18$1.2MJul 27, 2026
- SaleJune McAllister FowlerDirector200 shares at $55.04$11,008Jun 16, 2026
- BuyTimothy S DunnDirector2,500 shares at $47.71$119,275Mar 13, 2026
- SaleMargaret M RoweSenior Vice President861 shares at $51.69$44,505Mar 5, 2026
Plus 3 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 22 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
CBSH screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →
Recent news
- Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Board of Directors Reauthorizes Share Repurchase Program
- Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Declares Stock Dividend and Quarterly Cash Dividend on Common Stock
- How Earnings Beat At Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Has Changed Its Investment Story
- Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About Commerce (CBSH) Q3 Earnings
Compare Commerce Bancshares Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Return on equity by industry
- Quality Score by industry
- Piotroski F-Score screener with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 | ¥5.53 | ¥7.59 | +37% | vs CBSH |
| China Merchants Bank Co 600036 | ¥42.88 | ¥52.73 | +23% | vs CBSH |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €91.93 | €106.01 | +15% | vs CBSH |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.18 | €4.49 | −27% | vs CBSH |
| State Bank of India SBIN | ₹1,019 | ₹736.65 | −28% | vs CBSH |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €76.80 | €50.44 | −34% | vs CBSH |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $9.40 | $5.89 | −37% | vs CBSH |
| DBS Group D05 | 69.72 SGD | 40.39 SGD | −42% | vs CBSH |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK | ₹788.25 | ₹406.39 | −48% | vs CBSH |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,571 | ₹615.63 | −61% | vs CBSH |
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Frequently asked questions
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Key figures of Commerce Bancshares Inc
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