Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Challenger Gold Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Challenger Gold Limited engages in the exploration of gold, silver, and copper deposits in Argentina and Ecuador. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Hualilan Gold project, comprising 15 mining licenses and covers an area of 604 square kilometers which is located in San Juan, Argentina.
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Challenger Gold Limited engages in the exploration of gold, silver, and copper deposits in Argentina and Ecuador. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Hualilan Gold project, comprising 15 mining licenses and covers an area of 604 square kilometers which is located in San Juan, Argentina. The company was formerly known as Challenger Exploration Limited and changed its name to Challenger Gold Limited in June 2023. Challenger Gold Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) currently trades at A$2.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.9800, implying the stock looks roughly 111.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 11 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Challenger Gold Ltd reported revenue of A$70.9K in FY2024 versus A$3.5K in FY2020, a compound +112.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.8M in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$317M (≈ $227M) · P/S ratio 18.2 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 32.0% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.6% · Operating margin −14.2% · Revenue growth (YoY) −78.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 27% fair-value upside, at −53%, CEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.9800Fair Value A$0.9800Bull A$0.9800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.42/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−37.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+234.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+85.2%
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−65,953% → −6,934%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 255 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score22 · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)32% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−79% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.95× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)12.65× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 79
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.9800 versus a price of A$2.07, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CEL?
Our model-based fair value for Challenger Gold Ltd is A$0.9800 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.07.
What is the quality score of CEL?
Challenger Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.9800 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 8 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Challenger Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.9800, about −53% upside versus a price of A$2.07 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Challenger Gold Ltd pay a dividend?
Challenger Gold Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Challenger Gold Ltd it is A$0.9800 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$2.07. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Challenger Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CEL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.07, fair value A$0.9800, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.9800). For Challenger Gold Ltd the two are A$1.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Challenger Gold Ltd worth?
The market values Challenger Gold Ltd at about A$317M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$2.07; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.9800 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Challenger Gold Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 2.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 22/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Challenger Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, T-Mobile US, Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Challenger Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$2.07, calculated fair value A$0.9800 (−53%), Quality Score 22/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEL calculated?
We run Challenger Gold Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.9800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Challenger Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Challenger Gold Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.9800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Challenger Gold Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The market capitalisation of Challenger Gold Ltd is A$317M (≈ $227M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Challenger Gold Ltd is 18.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The dividend yield of Challenger Gold Ltd is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The net margin of Challenger Gold Ltd is 32.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Challenger Gold Ltd is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Challenger Gold Ltd is −2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The operating margin of Challenger Gold Ltd is −14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Revenue at Challenger Gold Ltd is growing −78.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +235%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Earnings per share at Challenger Gold Ltd are growing −89.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) generate?
The free cash flow of Challenger Gold Ltd is −A$18.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) hold?
Challenger Gold Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$14.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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