Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Challenger Gold Ltd stock A$0.83, price A$1.50, that is 44.7% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.7600 – A$7.10 · fair‑value band A$0.7300 – A$0.9100 · the A$1.50 price screens above the A$0.8300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Challenger Gold Limited engages in the exploration of gold, silver, and copper deposits in Argentina and Ecuador. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Hualilan Gold project, comprising 15 mining licenses and covers an area of 604 square kilometers which is located in San Juan, Argentina.
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The company was formerly known as Challenger Exploration Limited and changed its name to Challenger Gold Limited in June 2023. Challenger Gold Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) currently trades at A$1.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.8300, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$1.48 per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the A$1.50 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$0.8300, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.7300 (bear) to A$0.9100 (bull), the price of A$1.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Challenger Gold Ltd reported revenue of A$70.9K in FY2024 versus A$3.5K in FY2020, a compound +112.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.8M in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −45%, CEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.7300Fair Value A$0.8300BullA$0.9100
Price A$1.50 · Downside -44.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+219.3%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−65,953% → −6,934%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (10 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside−44.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets2.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−78.5% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.07× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)14.31× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 75
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.8300 versus a price of A$1.50, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CEL?
Our model-based fair value for Challenger Gold Ltd is A$0.8300 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.50.
What is the quality score of CEL?
Challenger Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.8300 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.7300, optimistic scenario A$0.9100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Challenger Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.8300, about 45% lower versus a price of A$1.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.7300, optimistic scenario A$0.9100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Challenger Gold Ltd it is A$0.8300 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$1.50. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Challenger Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CEL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.50, fair value A$0.8300, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.8300). For Challenger Gold Ltd the two are A$0.6700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Challenger Gold Ltd worth?
The market values Challenger Gold Ltd at about A$259M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$1.50; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.8300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CEL?
Our models span a range for Challenger Gold Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.7300, base A$0.8300, optimistic A$0.9100 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$1.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Challenger Gold Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −5.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CEL from its 52-week high?
Challenger Gold Ltd trades at A$1.50, about 63% below its 52-week high of A$4.00 and 4% above the low of A$1.44 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.8300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Challenger Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, China Gold International Resources Corp, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Challenger Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$1.50, calculated fair value A$0.8300 (−45%), Quality Score 37/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEL calculated?
We run Challenger Gold Ltd through 8 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.8300 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Challenger Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$1.50. Our model-based fair value is A$0.8300, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Challenger Gold Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.9100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Challenger Gold Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The market capitalisation of Challenger Gold Ltd is A$259M (≈ $178M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Challenger Gold Ltd is 15.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Earnings per share at Challenger Gold Ltd are A$−0.1000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Challenger Gold Ltd is −5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Challenger Gold Ltd is −2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Revenue at Challenger Gold Ltd is growing −78.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +219%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL)?
Earnings per share at Challenger Gold Ltd are growing −89.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) generate?
The free cash flow of Challenger Gold Ltd is −A$18.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Challenger Gold Ltd (CEL) hold?
Challenger Gold Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$14.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026