Certara, Inc (CERT) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $938M
Certara, Inc
CERT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $9.80 to $3.44 (−64.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +25.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.48 – $45.21 · fair‑value band $2.87 – $4.01 · the $8.20 price screens above the $3.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Certara, Inc (CERT) currently trades at $8.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.44, implying the stock looks roughly 58.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Certara, Inc generated revenue of $420M at a net margin of -3.6%. Revenue grew 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $178M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.87 (bear case) to $4.01 (bull case); at $8.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -58%, CERT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($6.99) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It offers model-informed drug development solutions; biosimulation solutions to predict pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics; Simcyp simulator, a mechanistic biosimulation platform for physiologically based pharmacokinetic simulation; Simcyp Discovery for scientists working on pre-investigational new drug and translational stages; Simcyp Biopharmaceutics for formulation scientists; and Simcyp Secondary Intelligence that integrates toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional biological changes. It also provides Phoenix WinNonlin, a platform for non-compartmental analysis; Phoenix cloud that offers a secured and validated Certara Amazon Web Services workspace; Phoenix NLME, a population modeling and simulation software; and Pirana Modeling Workbench, which provides modelers with a structure to facilitate the iterative processes. In addition, it offers Chemaxon JChem engines, a chemical search engine; Chemaxon Compound Registration that supports a streamlined lead optimization process workflow; Chemaxon Design Hub, a design and tracking platform; Certara D360 software, a scientific informatics system; and Chemaxon Marvin, a chemical drawing tool. Further, the company provides pinnacle 21, a cloud-based platform for clinical data automation, standardization, and validation; Pinnacle 21 Data Exchange to define data standards and specifications; Metadata Repository that enables study design using controlled and standardized data; CoAuthor software, which creates and writes regulatory submissions and medical publications; and GlobalSubmit, a submissions management software. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Certara, Inc reported revenue of $419M in FY2025 versus $286M in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.6M in FY2025.
CERT screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- INVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Certara, Inc. - CERT
- Certara to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 4th, 2026
Peer Group
Health Information Services · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veeva Systems Inc VEEV | $190.12 | $95.12 | -50% |
| Pro Medicus Limited PME | A$194.84 | A$23.74 | -88% |
| BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG | $68.16 | $21.31 | -69% |
| HealthEquity, Inc HQY | $97.67 | $56.63 | -42% |
| Hinge Health, Inc HNGE | $88.80 | $24.03 | -73% |
| 10x Genomics, Inc TXG | $45.75 | $17.18 | -62% |
| Waystar Holding WAY | $22.69 | $12.86 | -43% |
| Doximity, Inc DOCS | $22.21 | $17.18 | -23% |
| Privia Health Group PRVA | $28.10 | $5.30 | -81% |
| Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited IKS | ₹1,846 | ₹860.28 | -53% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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