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Certara Inc (CERT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Certara Inc $8.23, price $8.64, upside -4.8%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US15687V1098

CI Certara Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Certara Inc

CERT · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $8.23 · Fairly valued (−5%)
!Quality 63/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 27 out of 100
!Weak on future: 5 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$45.21 $4.48 Fair Value $8.23 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.48 – $45.21 · fair‑value band $5.26 – $8.23 · the $8.64 price screens above the $8.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific.

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Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It offers model-informed drug development solutions; biosimulation solutions to predict pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics; Simcyp simulator, a mechanistic biosimulation platform for physiologically based pharmacokinetic simulation; Simcyp Discovery for scientists working on pre-investigational new drug and translational stages; Simcyp Biopharmaceutics for formulation scientists; and Simcyp Secondary Intelligence that integrates toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional biological changes. It also provides Phoenix WinNonlin, a platform for non-compartmental analysis; Phoenix cloud that offers a secured and validated Certara Amazon Web Services workspace; Phoenix NLME, a population modeling and simulation software; and Pirana Modeling Workbench, which provides modelers with a structure to facilitate the iterative processes. In addition, it offers Chemaxon JChem engines, a chemical search engine; Chemaxon Compound Registration that supports a streamlined lead optimization process workflow; Chemaxon Design Hub, a design and tracking platform; Certara D360 software, a scientific informatics system; and Chemaxon Marvin, a chemical drawing tool. Further, the company provides pinnacle 21, a cloud-based platform for clinical data automation, standardization, and validation; Pinnacle 21 Data Exchange to define data standards and specifications; Metadata Repository that enables study design using controlled and standardized data; CoAuthor software, which creates and writes regulatory submissions and medical publications; and GlobalSubmit, a submissions management software. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Certara Inc (CERT) currently trades at $8.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.23, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8.16 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the $8.64 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.65, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $5.26 (bear) to $8.23 (bull), the price of $8.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Certara Inc reported revenue of $419M in FY2025 versus $286M in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.4B · P/S ratio 2.23 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1000 · Net margin −0.4% · Return on equity −1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin 3.8% · Revenue (TTM) $420M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −5%, CERT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.26 Fair Value $8.23 Bull $8.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $6.33 $10.58 $16.88 79
Growth DCF $6.26 $10.07 $15.41 77
Owner Earnings $4.83 $8.16 $13.10 75
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $6.33 $10.58 $16.88 79
Owner Earnings $4.83 $8.16 $13.10 75
5Y Revenue Exit $2.73 $3.92 $5.33 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $5.64 $9.77 $14.80 74
10Y Revenue Exit $4.04 $5.54 $7.47 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $5.82 $9.41 $14.54 67
Earnings-Based
EPV n/a $0.0400 $0.1100 68
Multiples
EV/EBIT $1.07 $1.65 $2.22 65
EV/EBITDA $5.84 $8.01 $10.17 67
EV/Revenue $0.5800 $1.11 $1.64 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.42 $4.58 $6.83 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.26 $10.07 $15.41 77
Rev-Margin DCF $2.73 $4.02 $5.67 73
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder n/a $0.0400 $0.1100 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 17
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 91
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10.0% (2020) → 5.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.0% a year for the price and −1.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−4.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.9%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 135 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside −5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.30× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 3.30× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 14.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 15.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)27 · sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)5 · sector 34
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 4
HEALTH (low debt)86 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Veeva Systems Inc VEEV $260.91 $287.00 +10%
Pro Medicus Limited PME A$161.31 A$64.50 −60%
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG $56.55 $26.07 −54%
HealthEquity, Inc HQY $91.75 $100.93 +10%
Hinge Health, Inc HNGE $94.15 $51.66 −45%
10x Genomics, Inc TXG $80.70 $21.71 −73%
Waystar Holding WAY $25.63 $28.19 +10%
XtalPi Holdings 2228 HK$8.39 HK$1.50 −82%
Doximity, Inc DOCS $26.51 $31.41 +18%
Privia Health Group PRVA $19.46 $5.26 −73%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Certara Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CERT

Frequently asked questions

Is Certara Inc (CERT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.23 versus a price of $8.64, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CERT?
Our model-based fair value for Certara Inc is $8.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.64.
What is the quality score of CERT?
Certara Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Certara Inc (CERT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.26, optimistic scenario $8.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Certara Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.23, about −5% upside versus a price of $8.64 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.26, optimistic scenario $8.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Certara Inc (CERT)?
Certara Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $420M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Certara Inc (CERT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Certara Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +11.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CERT use?
Our models discount Certara Inc at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Certara Inc that is +11.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Certara Inc (CERT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Certara Inc grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +11.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Certara Inc (CERT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Certara Inc (+11.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Certara Inc (CERT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.82 %: that much free cash flow Certara Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Certara Inc (CERT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Certara Inc it is $8.23 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.64. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Certara Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CERT trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.64, fair value $8.23, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CERT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.23). For Certara Inc the two are $0.4100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Certara Inc worth?
The market values Certara Inc at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.64; our models calculate a fair value of $8.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CERT?
Our models span a range for Certara Inc: cautious scenario $5.26, base $8.23, optimistic $8.23 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Certara Inc (CERT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Certara Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −1.4%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CERT from its 52-week high?
Certara Inc trades at $8.64, about 36% below its 52-week high of $13.60 and 93% above the low of $4.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Certara Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, HealthEquity, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Certara Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.64, calculated fair value $8.23 (−5%), Quality Score 63/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CERT calculated?
We run Certara Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Certara Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Certara Inc (CERT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.64. Our model-based fair value is $8.23, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Certara Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Key figures of Certara Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Certara Inc (CERT)?
The market capitalisation of Certara Inc is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Certara Inc (CERT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Certara Inc is 2.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Certara Inc (CERT)?
Earnings per share at Certara Inc are $−0.1000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Certara Inc (CERT)?
The net margin of Certara Inc is −0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Certara Inc (CERT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Certara Inc is −1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Certara Inc (CERT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Certara Inc is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Certara Inc (CERT)?
The operating margin of Certara Inc is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Certara Inc (CERT)?
Revenue at Certara Inc is growing +0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Certara Inc (CERT)?
Earnings per share at Certara Inc are growing −14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Certara Inc (CERT) hold?
Certara Inc holds more cash than debt, $178M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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