Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc $16.00, price $9.69, upside +65.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.98 – $22.68 · fair‑value band $12.61 – $19.47 · the $9.69 price screens below the $16.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc. engages in generation, transmission, and distribution of electric power in Japan. It generates power through hydroelectric, thermal, nuclear, renewable, and other energy sources.
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The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc. engages in generation, transmission, and distribution of electric power in Japan. It generates power through hydroelectric, thermal, nuclear, renewable, and other energy sources. The company provides thermal power, nuclear power, hydroelectric power, transportation facilities, electrical communications, electrical conductors and cables, and other materials and equipment, as well as consulting services. In addition, it owns and operates general hydropower and pumped storage power stations, as well as constructs and operates technology of photovoltaic power plant. Further, the company is involved in natural gas-fired power generation; and coal-fired power generation. The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc. was incorporated in 1951 and is based in Hiroshima, Japan.
Stock analysis
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR (CGKEY) currently trades at $9.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.00, implying the stock looks roughly 39.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $36.07 per share, and 7 of the 8 models we run sit above the $9.69 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $15.27, and 1 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.61 (bear) to $19.47 (bull), the price of $9.69 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥1.5T in FY2026 versus ¥1.1T in FY2022, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥72.7B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 2.6 · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) $3.72 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 65%, CGKEY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.61Fair Value $16.00Bull $19.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.80 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 12%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 6%
Compare Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 205 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Below median
Fair Value upside+65% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CGKEY
Frequently asked questions
Is Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.00 versus a price of $9.69, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CGKEY?
Our model-based fair value for Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is $16.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.69.
What is the quality score of CGKEY?
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.61, optimistic scenario $19.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.00, about +65% upside versus a price of $9.69 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.61, optimistic scenario $19.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR it is $16.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.69. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CGKEY trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.69, fair value $16.00, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGKEY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.00). For Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR the two are $6.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR worth?
The market values Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.69; our models calculate a fair value of $16.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGKEY?
Our models span a range for Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR: cautious scenario $12.61, base $16.00, optimistic $19.47 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CGKEY?
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 3.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGKEY from its 52-week high?
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR trades at $9.69, about 28% below its 52-week high of $13.56 and 8% above the low of $8.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.69, calculated fair value $16.00 (+65%), Quality Score 36/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGKEY calculated?
We run Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $9.69. Our model-based fair value is $16.00, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY) come from?
Earnings per share at Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR grew +18.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +9.2 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
The market capitalisation of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is 0.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
Earnings per share at Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR are $3.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
The dividend yield of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is 3.8% (payout 10.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
The net margin of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is 4.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
The operating margin of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
Revenue at Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is growing −10.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY)?
Earnings per share at Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR are growing −79.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY) generate?
The free cash flow of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is −¥31.7B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc (CGKEY) carry?
The net debt of Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc ADR is ¥2.9T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026