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China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jun 25, 2026: fair value of China Minsheng Banking Corp $0.91, price $0.46, upside +100.1%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · Home China · ISIN CNE100000HF9

CM China Minsheng Banking Corp logo Broad data Sep 29, 2026

China Minsheng Banking Corp

CGMBF · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $0.9140 · Strongly undervalued (+100.1%)
!Quality 41/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −3.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 35.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Moderate moat 50/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.5561 $0.2149 Fair Value $0.9140 Jun 2015 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.2149 – $0.5561 · fair‑value band $0.6850 – $1.16 · the $0.4568 price screens below the $0.9140 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Others segments.

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China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Others segments. Its deposit products include saving accounts, deposit books and certificates, contracted and agreement deposits, call deposits, and corporate term and current deposits. The company also offers personal housing mortgage, individual automobile purchase, and household composite; corporate loans; medium and long term, and short-term working capital loans, as well as debit and credit cards. In addition, it provides appointed and domestic remittance, payment and collection agent, clearing, safe deposit box, VIP, and salary and welfare agent card services, as well as internet, mobile, telephone, and self-serve banking services. Further, the company offers gross settlement; wages distribution agency and letter of guarantee; cash management; trade finance; industrial chain finance; international credit; and comprehensive credit granting and financial product investment services. It operates through branch-level institutions, business outlets, general sub-branches, community sub-branches, and small business sub-branches. The company serves individuals, corporate customers, government agencies, and financial institutions, as well as micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises. China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF) currently trades at $0.4568, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9140, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $1.72 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $0.4568 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.02, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $0.6850 (bear) to $1.16 (bull), the price of $0.4568 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

China Minsheng Banking Corp reported revenue of 266B CNY in FY2025 versus 321B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 30.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $21.0B · P/E ratio 5.1 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Net margin 11.5% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin 54.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 100%, CGMBF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.6850 Fair Value $0.9140 Bull $1.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $1.70 $1.72 $1.80 76
Gordon GGM $0.5800 $1.21 $1.92 66
DDM Multi-Stage $0.5800 $1.02 $1.27 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.5800 $1.21 $1.92 66
DDM Multi-Stage $0.5800 $1.02 $1.27 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.9700 $1.29 $1.62 63
P/B Multiple $1.27 $1.69 $2.11 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.12 $1.50 $2.24 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.70 $1.72 $1.80 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 11/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.2% vs −4.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Values & ESG

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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Minsheng Banking Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CGMBF

Frequently asked questions

Is China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9140 versus the last price from Jun 25, 2026 of $0.4568, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CGMBF?
Our model-based fair value for China Minsheng Banking Corp is $0.9140 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 25, 2026): $0.4568.
What is the quality score of CGMBF?
China Minsheng Banking Corp has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.9140 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6850, optimistic scenario $1.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Minsheng Banking Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.9140, about +100% upside versus the last price from Jun 25, 2026 of $0.4568 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.6850, optimistic scenario $1.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Minsheng Banking Corp it is $0.9140 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $0.4568. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Minsheng Banking Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CGMBF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.4568, fair value $0.9140, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGMBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4568); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9140). For China Minsheng Banking Corp the two are $0.4572 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Minsheng Banking Corp worth?
The market values China Minsheng Banking Corp at about $21.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $0.4568; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9140 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGMBF?
Our models span a range for China Minsheng Banking Corp: cautious scenario $0.6850, base $0.9140, optimistic $1.16 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $0.4568). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to China Minsheng Banking Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Minsheng Banking Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $0.4568, calculated fair value $0.9140 (+100%), Quality Score 41/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGMBF calculated?
We run China Minsheng Banking Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.9140, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Minsheng Banking Corp currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 25, 2026 and stands at $0.4568. Our model-based fair value is $0.9140, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Minsheng Banking Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.6850). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF) come from?
Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking Corp grew −4.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.6 %, EBIT margin −7.1 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Minsheng Banking Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
The market capitalisation of China Minsheng Banking Corp is $21.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp is 5.1 (as of Jun 19, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking Corp are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
The net margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp is 11.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Minsheng Banking Corp is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Minsheng Banking Corp is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
The operating margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp is 54.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
Revenue at China Minsheng Banking Corp is growing −7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF)?
Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking Corp are growing −10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF) generate?
The free cash flow of China Minsheng Banking Corp is −167B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Minsheng Banking Corp (CGMBF) carry?
The net debt of China Minsheng Banking Corp is 436B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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