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China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd $39.73, price $21.25, upside +87.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ADR · Home China · ISIN US1693892028

CC China Citic Bank Corp Ltd logo Some data Sep 29, 2026

China Citic Bank Corp Ltd

CHCJY · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $39.73 · Strongly undervalued (+87.0%)
!Quality 58/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −2.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 45.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.6% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (7/11)
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 16 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$21.80 $5.16 Fair Value $39.73 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.16 – $21.80 · fair‑value band $35.93 – $57.34 · the $21.25 price screens below the $39.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited provides various banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates in three segments: Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Financial Market business.

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China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited provides various banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates in three segments: Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Financial Market business. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans, deposit services, agency services, money transfer and settlement services, and guarantee services to corporate clients, government agencies, and non-financial institutions. Its Retail Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit services, agency services, remittance and settlement services, and guarantee services to individual customers. The Financial Markets Business segment engages in interbank lending, repurchase transactions and debt instrument investments in the interbank market, and trading in debt instruments, as well as derivatives and forex trading. The company also offers wealth management, treasury business, asset management, financial leasing, private banking and other non-bank financial services. It operates through branches; self-service banks; and self-service terminals, as well as smart teller machines. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of CITIC Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.

Stock analysis

China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR (CHCJY) currently trades at $21.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.73, implying the stock looks roughly 46.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $47.92 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $21.25 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $22.47, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $35.93 (bear) to $57.34 (bull), the price of $21.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR reported revenue of 347B CNY in FY2025 versus 363B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 68.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $54.3B · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) $3.54 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 19.8% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 87%, CHCJY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $35.93 Fair Value $39.73 Bull $57.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.39 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $34.96 $38.23 $45.96 76
Gordon GGM $12.82 $26.65 $42.28 66
DDM Multi-Stage $12.82 $22.47 $27.97 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $12.82 $26.65 $42.28 66
DDM Multi-Stage $12.82 $22.47 $27.97 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $35.94 $47.92 $59.89 63
P/B Multiple $42.78 $57.04 $71.30 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $20.37 $27.30 $40.74 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $34.96 $38.23 $45.96 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 94
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.93.2% vs 39.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56% → 24%
2025 sits 1,957% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (39 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside +36.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8.5% · Below median
Return on assets 0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 45.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 60.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.27× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.5× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.58× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)82 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)16 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)34 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)86 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 52

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €79.53 €77.12 −3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.05 $6.82 −38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHCJY

Frequently asked questions

Is China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $39.73 versus a price of $21.25, about +87% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHCJY?
Our model-based fair value for China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is $39.73 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.25.
What is the quality score of CHCJY?
China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $39.73 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $35.93, optimistic scenario $57.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $39.73, about +87% upside versus a price of $21.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $35.93, optimistic scenario $57.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 156B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR it is $39.73 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $21.25. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CHCJY trades below its calculated fair value: price $21.25, fair value $39.73, a gap of about +87% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHCJY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($39.73). For China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR the two are $18.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR worth?
The market values China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR at about $54.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $21.25; our models calculate a fair value of $39.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHCJY?
Our models span a range for China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $35.93, base $39.73, optimistic $57.34 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $21.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHCJY?
China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $39.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CHCJY?
The PEG ratio of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is 1.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHCJY from its 52-week high?
China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR trades at $21.25, about 3% below its 52-week high of $21.80 and 37% above the low of $15.56 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $39.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $21.25, calculated fair value $39.73 (+87%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHCJY calculated?
We run China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $39.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was $21.25. Our model-based fair value is $39.73, about +87% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($35.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY) come from?
Earnings per share at China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR grew +8.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
The market capitalisation of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is $54.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is 1.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
Earnings per share at China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR are $3.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
The dividend yield of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is 5.6% (payout 33.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
The net margin of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is 19.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
The operating margin of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is 60.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY)?
Revenue at China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is growing +3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY) generate?
The free cash flow of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is 67.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (CHCJY) carry?
The net debt of China Citic Bank Corp Ltd ADR is 2.7T CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 39.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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