Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chorus Aviation Inc stock C$28.12, price C$29.74, upside -5.4%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$13.77 – C$32.01 · fair‑value band C$13.76 – C$49.10 · the C$29.74 price screens above the C$28.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
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Chorus Aviation Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides aviation services in Canada and internationally.
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It offers contract flying services, charter services, and specialized contracts ACMI (aircraft, crew, maintenance, and insurance) flying, such as medical, logistical, and humanitarian flights; aircraft leasing and acquisition; and maintenance, repair and overhaul services, and technical and pilot training services.
The company also provides aircraft modifications and refurbishment, in-service support services, parts provisioning and disassembly, aerospace engineering, repurposing and transition, and certification services. The company was formerly known as Jazz Air Income Fund.
Chorus Aviation Inc. was founded in 2005 and is based in Dartmouth, Canada.
Stock analysis
Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR) currently trades at C$29.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$28.12, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$59.71 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$29.74 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at C$4.91, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$13.76 (bear) to C$49.10 (bull), the price of C$29.74 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Chorus Aviation Inc reported revenue of C$1.3B in FY2025 versus C$1.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$78.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$696M (≈ $497M) Small · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) C$1.98 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −5%, CHR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$13.76Fair Value C$28.12BullC$49.10
Price C$29.74 · Upside -5.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$1.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.7% vs −2.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.2% a year for the price and −1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airports & Air Services · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−5.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.2% · Below median
Return on assets6.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)7.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$28.12 versus a price of C$29.74, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CHR?
Our model-based fair value for Chorus Aviation Inc is C$28.12 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$29.74.
What is the quality score of CHR?
Chorus Aviation Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$28.12 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$13.76, optimistic scenario C$49.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chorus Aviation Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$28.12, about −5% upside versus a price of C$29.74 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$13.76, optimistic scenario C$49.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
Chorus Aviation Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does Chorus Aviation Inc pay a dividend?
Chorus Aviation Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chorus Aviation Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHR use?
Our models discount Chorus Aviation Inc at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.61, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chorus Aviation Inc that is +28.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chorus Aviation Inc grew +6.8 % a year. The price currently implies +28.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chorus Aviation Inc (+28.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.00 %: that much free cash flow Chorus Aviation Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chorus Aviation Inc it is C$28.12 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of C$29.74. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chorus Aviation Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, CHR trades above its calculated fair value: price C$29.74, fair value C$28.12, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$29.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$28.12). For Chorus Aviation Inc the two are C$1.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chorus Aviation Inc worth?
The market values Chorus Aviation Inc at about C$696M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is C$29.74; our models calculate a fair value of C$28.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHR?
Our models span a range for Chorus Aviation Inc: cautious scenario C$13.76, base C$28.12, optimistic C$49.10 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price C$29.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHR?
Chorus Aviation Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$28.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CHR?
The PEG ratio of Chorus Aviation Inc is 1.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chorus Aviation Inc (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHR from its 52-week high?
Chorus Aviation Inc trades at C$29.74, about 4% below its 52-week high of C$30.99 and 43% above the low of C$20.80 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$28.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chorus Aviation Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Aena S.M.E., S.A, Airports of Thailand Public Company, GMR Airports Limited, Shanghai International Airport Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chorus Aviation Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price C$29.74, calculated fair value C$28.12 (−5%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHR calculated?
We run Chorus Aviation Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$28.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Chorus Aviation Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was C$29.74. Our model-based fair value is C$28.12, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chorus Aviation Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$13.76 to C$49.10). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR) come from?
Earnings per share at Chorus Aviation Inc grew −1.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.7 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chorus Aviation Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
The market capitalisation of Chorus Aviation Inc is C$696M (≈ $497M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chorus Aviation Inc is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
Earnings per share at Chorus Aviation Inc are C$1.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
The dividend yield of Chorus Aviation Inc is 1.1% (payout 16.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
The net margin of Chorus Aviation Inc is 3.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chorus Aviation Inc is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chorus Aviation Inc is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
The operating margin of Chorus Aviation Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
Revenue at Chorus Aviation Inc is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR)?
Earnings per share at Chorus Aviation Inc are growing −51.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR) carry?
The net debt of Chorus Aviation Inc is C$346M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 20, 2026