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Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cinclus Pharma SEK 7.73, price SEK 11.74, upside -34.2%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · SE · ISIN SE0020388577

CP Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Cinclus Pharma

CINPHA · ST

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value kr 7.73 · Overvalued (−34%)
!Quality 38/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +75.8 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 35.00 kr 9.43 Fair Value kr 7.73 Jun 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

27‑month range kr 9.43 – kr 35.00 · fair‑value band kr 5.10 – kr 9.66 · the kr 11.74 price screens above the kr 7.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Cinclus Pharma Holding AB (publ), a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, develops small molecules for the treatment of gastric acid-related diseases in China. The company's lead product is linaprazan glurate, a potassium-competitive acid blocker that has completed Phase II clinical trial to treat gastroesophageal reflux disease.

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Cinclus Pharma Holding AB (publ), a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, develops small molecules for the treatment of gastric acid-related diseases in China. The company's lead product is linaprazan glurate, a potassium-competitive acid blocker that has completed Phase II clinical trial to treat gastroesophageal reflux disease. It also develops linaprazan glurate with antibiotics, which is in pre-clinical trial for the treatment of peptic ulcer bacteria Helicobacter pylori. Cinclus Pharma Holding AB (publ) was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Stock analysis

Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA) currently trades at kr 11.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 7.73, implying the stock looks roughly 51.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: kr 5.10 (bear) to kr 9.66 (bull), the price of kr 11.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Cinclus Pharma reported revenue of 57.5M SEK in FY2025 versus 10.6M SEK in FY2022, a compound +75.8%/yr. Reported net income was −184M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 650M SEK (≈ $65.4M) · P/S ratio 18.5 · EPS (TTM) kr −5.33 · Return on equity −79.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −97.5% · Operating margin −5,381% · Revenue (TTM) 35.2M SEK · Revenue growth (YoY) −94.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −34%, CINPHA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 5.10 Fair Value kr 7.73 Bull kr 9.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) kr 3.97 kr 5.32 kr 7.94 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 3.97 kr 5.32 kr 7.94 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1,154.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,993.5% (2022) → −344.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

CINPHA screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −35% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −95% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.18× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.87× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €133.15 €108.70 −18%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.95 $11.29 −40%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥45.58 ¥50.14 +10%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,865 ₹1,979 +6%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 163.80 CHF 109.88 −33%
Haleon plc HLN $9.25 $8.50 −8%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $39.52 $20.75 −47%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 70.76 CHF 40.16 −43%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $72.86 $108.48 +49%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 HK$35.34 HK$38.87 +10%

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Cinclus Pharma · Fair Value
kr 7.73 −52%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cinclus Pharma Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CINPHA

Frequently asked questions

Is Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 7.73 versus a price of kr 11.74, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CINPHA?
Our model-based fair value for Cinclus Pharma is kr 7.73 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 11.74.
What is the quality score of CINPHA?
Cinclus Pharma has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 7.73 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 5.10, optimistic scenario kr 9.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cinclus Pharma stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 7.73, about −34% upside versus a price of kr 11.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 5.10, optimistic scenario kr 9.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
Cinclus Pharma reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 35.2M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cinclus Pharma it is kr 7.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 11.74. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cinclus Pharma stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CINPHA trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 11.74, fair value kr 7.73, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CINPHA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 11.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 7.73). For Cinclus Pharma the two are kr 4.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cinclus Pharma worth?
The market values Cinclus Pharma at about 650M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 11.74; our models calculate a fair value of kr 7.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CINPHA?
Our models span a range for Cinclus Pharma: cautious scenario kr 5.10, base kr 7.73, optimistic kr 9.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 11.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cinclus Pharma (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −79.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CINPHA from its 52-week high?
Cinclus Pharma trades at kr 11.74, about 40% below its 52-week high of kr 19.46 and 9% above the low of kr 10.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 7.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cinclus Pharma?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cinclus Pharma stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 11.74, calculated fair value kr 7.73 (−34%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CINPHA calculated?
We run Cinclus Pharma through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 7.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cinclus Pharma itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 11.74. Our model-based fair value is kr 7.73, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cinclus Pharma right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 9.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 5.10 to kr 9.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Cinclus Pharma

How large is the market capitalisation of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
The market capitalisation of Cinclus Pharma is 650M SEK (≈ $65.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cinclus Pharma is 18.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
Earnings per share at Cinclus Pharma are kr −5.33. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cinclus Pharma is −79.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cinclus Pharma is −97.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
The operating margin of Cinclus Pharma is −5,381% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA)?
Revenue at Cinclus Pharma is growing −94.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +75.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA) generate?
The free cash flow of Cinclus Pharma is −75.8M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cinclus Pharma (CINPHA) carry?
The net debt of Cinclus Pharma is 42.4M SEK (fiscal year 2023). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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