Cinclus Pharma Holding (CINPHA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · SE · Market cap 563M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 9.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 5.10 to kr 9.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
26‑month range kr 9.43 – kr 35.00 · fair‑value band kr 5.10 – kr 9.66 · the kr 11.90 price screens above the kr 7.73 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Cinclus Pharma Holding (CINPHA) currently trades at kr 11.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 7.73, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 67.5M SEK. Revenue grew 197.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -60.3%. Net debt stands at 42.4M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 5.10 (bear case) to kr 9.66 (bull case); at kr 11.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -35%, CINPHA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cinclus Pharma Holding AB (publ), a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, develops small molecules for the treatment of gastric acid-related diseases in China. The company's lead product is linaprazan glurate, a potassium-competitive acid blocker that has completed Phase II clinical trial to treat gastroesophageal reflux disease.
Full company description
Cinclus Pharma Holding AB (publ), a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, develops small molecules for the treatment of gastric acid-related diseases in China. The company's lead product is linaprazan glurate, a potassium-competitive acid blocker that has completed Phase II clinical trial to treat gastroesophageal reflux disease. It also develops linaprazan glurate with antibiotics, which is in pre-clinical trial for the treatment of peptic ulcer bacteria Helicobacter pylori. Cinclus Pharma Holding AB (publ) was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cinclus Pharma Holding reported revenue of kr 57.5M in FY2025 versus kr 10.6M in FY2022, a compound +75.8%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 184M in FY2025.
CINPHA screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 624 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.19 | ¥25.94 | -51% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,933 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹7,316 | ₹1,943 | -73% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,763 | ₹1,329 | -72% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,285 TWD | 221.01 TWD | -83% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,439 | ₹1,001 | -30% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,151 | ₹703.32 | -39% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,443 | ₹2,477 | +1% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,484 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,211 | ₹874.79 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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