Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd $39.20, price $131, upside -70.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.54 – $156.77 · fair‑value band $29.57 – $71.41 · the $130.70 price screens above the $39.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Capitec Bank Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in South Africa. The company operates through three segments: Personal banking, Business banking, and Insurance.
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Capitec Bank Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in South Africa. The company operates through three segments: Personal banking, Business banking, and Insurance. It offers transactional banking services; flexible, notice, fixed, and tax-free savings; call and notice deposits; term, home, personal, vehicle, education, home improvement, business, term, medical, instalment, short-term, and mortgage loans; overdrafts, instalment sales and leases, credit and debit cards, and access facilities; and payment, merchant, forex, franchising, and value-added services. The company also provides treasury products comprising foreign exchange spot trades and foreign exchange forward contracts; insurance products, such as general, fleet, agricultural, engineering, motor traders, hospitality, contractors all risk, life, and credit insurance, as well as funeral cover insurance; and trade finance products, including letters of credit, trade guarantees, bills of collection, exchange control, and society for worldwide interbank financial telecommunication, as well as app and online banking. In addition, it offers vehicle and asset finance, property finance, rental finance, credit line products, and card machines. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR (CKHGY) currently trades at $130.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.20, 70.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $37.52 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $130.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.33, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $29.57 (bear) to $71.41 (bull), the price of $130.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR reported revenue of 61.3B ZAR in FY2026 versus 2.4B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +124.9%/yr. Reported net income was 16.8B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +132.7%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $30.2B · P/E ratio 29.0 · P/S ratio 7.97 · EPS (TTM) $4.50 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 27.5% · Return on equity 30.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 48.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −70%, CKHGY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $29.57Fair Value $39.20Bull $71.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+189.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+99.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +46.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
24.7% (2002) → 36.2% (2026)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.6% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−77.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)30.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)39.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)54.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)29.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.08× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)12.73× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF30.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA21.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)82· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)34· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CKHGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $39.20 versus a price of $130.70, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CKHGY?
Our model-based fair value for Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR is $39.20 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $130.70.
What is the quality score of CKHGY?
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $39.20 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.57, optimistic scenario $71.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $39.20, about −70% upside versus a price of $130.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $29.57, optimistic scenario $71.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 42.4B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +12.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +100.0 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CKHGY use?
Our models discount Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR that is +12.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR grew +100.0 % a year. The price currently implies +12.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR (+12.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.54 %: that much free cash flow Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR it is $39.20 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $130.70. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CKHGY trades above its calculated fair value: price $130.70, fair value $39.20, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CKHGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($130.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($39.20). For Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR the two are $91.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR at about $30.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $130.70; our models calculate a fair value of $39.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CKHGY?
Our models span a range for Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $29.57, base $39.20, optimistic $71.41 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $130.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CKHGY?
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $39.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 9.1, P/S 12.7, EV/EBITDA 21.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 30.5%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CKHGY from its 52-week high?
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR trades at $130.70, about 17% below its 52-week high of $156.77 and 30% above the low of $100.36 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $39.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $130.70, calculated fair value $39.20 (−70%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CKHGY calculated?
We run Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $39.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $130.70. Our model-based fair value is $39.20, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($71.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($29.57 to $71.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY) come from?
Earnings per share at Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR grew +33.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +27.9 %, EBIT margin −6.9 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +11.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
The market capitalisation of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR is $30.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR is 7.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
Earnings per share at Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR are $4.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
The dividend yield of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR is 1.7% (payout 48.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
The net margin of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR is 27.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR is 30.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR is 48.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
The operating margin of Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR is 54.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
Revenue at Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR is growing +16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +190%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY)?
Earnings per share at Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR are growing +20.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CKHGY) hold?
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, 26.0B ZAR net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026