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Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Cromwell Property Group $0.25, price $0.27, upside -8.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Cromwell Property Group
CMWCF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $0.2500 · Fairly valued (−8.5%)
✓Quality 64/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −15.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 42.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓11.0% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 53/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2242 – $0.4987 · fair‑value band $0.1600 – $0.3800 · the $0.2733 price screens above the $0.2500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Cromwell Property Group is a real estate investment manager with 4.2 billion US dolars of assets under management in Australia and New Zealand on 30 June 2025.
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Cromwell Property Group is a real estate investment manager with 4.2 billion US dolars of assets under management in Australia and New Zealand on 30 June 2025. Cromwell is a trusted partner and investment manager to a range of local and global investors; capital providers and banking partners and has a strong track record of creating value and delivering superior risk-adjusted returns throughout the real estate investment cycle. Cromwell Property Group was incorporated in Australia.
Stock analysis
Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF) currently trades at $0.2733, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2500, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.2600 per share, and 1 of the 8 models we run sit above the $0.2733 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.1700, and 7 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.1600 (bear) to $0.3800 (bull), the price of $0.2733 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Cromwell Property Group reported revenue of A$177M in FY2025 versus A$361M in FY2021, a compound −16.3%/yr. Reported net income was −A$22.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $716M · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 2.65 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Dividend yield 11.0% · Net margin −12.8% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −9%, CMWCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1600
Fair Value $0.2500
Bull $0.3800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.1600
$0.2500
$0.4100
79
Growth DCF
$0.1700
$0.2600
$0.4000
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.1000
$0.1900
$0.3300
70
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.1600
$0.2500
$0.4100
79
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.1000
$0.1900
$0.3300
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.1200
$0.1900
$0.2600
67
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$0.2700
$0.4200
$0.5600
65
EV/Revenue
$0.0700
$0.1700
$0.2700
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.1900
$0.2600
$0.3900
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.1700
$0.2600
$0.4000
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.0800
$0.1700
$0.2800
70
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
64/100
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Profitability
8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
30/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
44.2% (2020) → 55.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BXP, Inc BXP | $63.40 | $38.36 | −39% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $50.11 | $49.54 | −1% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $49.93 | $98.03 | +96% |
| MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL | €12.26 | €9.69 | −21% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $11.65 | $2.97 | −75% |
| Gecina GFC | €63.75 | €75.43 | +18% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.22 SGD | 1.26 SGD | +3% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $28.65 | $8.26 | −71% |
| Keppel DC REIT AJBU | 2.12 SGD | 2.70 SGD | +27% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.43 | A$4.09 | −25% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2500 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.2733, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CMWCF?
Our model-based fair value for Cromwell Property Group is $0.2500 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.2733.
What is the quality score of CMWCF?
Cromwell Property Group has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2500 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1600, optimistic scenario $0.3800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cromwell Property Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2500, about −9% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.2733 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.1600, optimistic scenario $0.3800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
Cromwell Property Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$249M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Cromwell Property Group pay a dividend?
Cromwell Property Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cromwell Property Group would have to grow free cash flow by +11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -15.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMWCF use?
Our models discount Cromwell Property Group at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cromwell Property Group that is +11.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cromwell Property Group grew -15.4 % a year. The price currently implies +11.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cromwell Property Group (+11.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.92 %: that much free cash flow Cromwell Property Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cromwell Property Group it is $0.2500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.2733. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cromwell Property Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CMWCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.2733, fair value $0.2500, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMWCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2733); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2500). For Cromwell Property Group the two are $0.0233 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cromwell Property Group worth?
The market values Cromwell Property Group at about $716M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.2733; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMWCF?
Our models span a range for Cromwell Property Group: cautious scenario $0.1600, base $0.2500, optimistic $0.3800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.2733). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CMWCF from its 52-week high?
Cromwell Property Group trades at $0.2733, at its 52-week high of $0.2733 and 13% above the low of $0.2423 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cromwell Property Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cromwell Property Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.2733, calculated fair value $0.2500 (−9%), Quality Score 64/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMWCF calculated?
We run Cromwell Property Group through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Cromwell Property Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.2733. Our model-based fair value is $0.2500, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cromwell Property Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($0.1600 to $0.3800) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Cromwell Property Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
The market capitalisation of Cromwell Property Group is $716M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Cromwell Property Group is 9.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cromwell Property Group is 2.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
Earnings per share at Cromwell Property Group are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
The dividend yield of Cromwell Property Group is 11.0% (payout 100%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
The net margin of Cromwell Property Group is −12.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cromwell Property Group is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cromwell Property Group is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
The operating margin of Cromwell Property Group is 73.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
Revenue at Cromwell Property Group is growing +70.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF)?
Earnings per share at Cromwell Property Group are growing −8.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cromwell Property Group (CMWCF) carry?
The net debt of Cromwell Property Group is A$593M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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