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Gecina SA (GFC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Gecina SA €75.35, price €64.65, upside +16.6%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Real Estate · FR · ISIN FR0010040865

GS Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Gecina SA

GFC · PA

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value €75.35 · Undervalued (+17%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 51.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·8.51% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)
!Moderate moat 61/100
!Weak on past: 17 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€100.01 €59.39 Fair Value €75.35 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €59.39 – €100.01 · fair‑value band €56.52 – €94.19 · the €64.65 price screens below the €75.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Gecina is a leading operator that fully integrates all real estate expertise, owning, managing, and developing a unique prime portfolio valued at 17.6bn euros as at December 31, 2025. Strategically located in the most central areas of Paris and the Paris Region, Gecina's portfolio includes 1.2 million sq.m of office space and nearly 5,300 residential units.

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Gecina is a leading operator that fully integrates all real estate expertise, owning, managing, and developing a unique prime portfolio valued at 17.6bn euros as at December 31, 2025. Strategically located in the most central areas of Paris and the Paris Region, Gecina's portfolio includes 1.2 million sq.m of office space and nearly 5,300 residential units. By combining long-term value creation with operational excellence, Gecina offers high-quality, sustainable living and working environments tailored to the evolving needs of urban users. As a committed operator, Gecina enhances its assets with high-value services and dynamic property and asset management, fostering vibrant communities. Through its YouFirst brand, Gecina places user experience at the heart of its strategy. In line with its social responsibility commitments, the Foundation Gecina supports initiatives across four core pillars: disability inclusion, environmental protection, cultural heritage, and housing access. Gecina is a French real estate investment trust (SIIC) listed on Euronext Paris, and is part of the SBF 120, CAC Next 20 and CAC Large 60 indices. Gecina is also recognized as one of the top-performing companies in its industry by leading sustainability rankings (GRESB, Sustainalytics, MSCI, ISS-ESG, and CDP) and is committed to radically reducing its carbon emissions by 2030. Gecina was incorporated in 10th February 1959 in France.

Stock analysis

Gecina SA (GFC) currently trades at €64.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €75.35, implying the stock looks roughly 14.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €107.07 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the €64.65 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €66.00, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €56.52 (bear) to €94.19 (bull), the price of €64.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Gecina SA reported revenue of €859M in FY2025 versus €762M in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was €448M in FY2025, compounding −14.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €5.5B · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 5.60 · EPS (TTM) €6.03 · Dividend yield 8.5% · Net margin 52.2% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 17%, GFC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €56.52 Fair Value €75.35 Bull €94.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.3877 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €106.55 €107.07 €97.93 76
Gordon GGM €47.83 €66.69 €85.40 69
DDM Multi-Stage €47.83 €66.00 €86.37 67
All 9 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €47.83 €66.69 €85.40 69
DDM Multi-Stage €47.83 €66.00 €86.37 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple €56.52 €75.35 €94.19 58
P/B Multiple €77.16 €102.88 €128.60 55
EV/EBIT €61.79 €103.38 €144.97 64
EV/EBITDA €16.94 €43.58 €70.22 62
EV/Revenue n/a €18.17 €42.52 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €71.30 €95.55 €142.61 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €106.55 €107.07 €97.93 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 26/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs −7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56% → 65%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 86% above its own trend.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 68 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 52% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 75% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.45× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.60× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 7.29× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 16.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 12.30× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)55 · sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)17 · sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 66
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 100

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BXP, Inc BXP $64.31 $53.27 −17%
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL €12.58 €8.81 −30%
Vornado Realty Trust VNORP $70.25 $48.20 −31%
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE $53.85 $96.26 +79%
Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP $12.08 $2.97 −75%
Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU 1.22 SGD 1.26 SGD +3%
Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ $28.90 $7.87 −73%
Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC $34.74 $35.56 +2%
Keppel DC REIT AJBU 2.14 SGD 3.04 SGD +42%
COPT Defense Properties, an S&P MidCap 400 Company CDP $34.34 $22.54 −34%

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Gecina SA · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gecina SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GFC

Frequently asked questions

Is Gecina SA (GFC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €75.35 versus a price of €64.65, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GFC?
Our model-based fair value for Gecina SA is €75.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €64.65.
What is the quality score of GFC?
Gecina SA has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gecina SA (GFC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €75.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario €56.52, optimistic scenario €94.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gecina SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €75.35, about +17% upside versus a price of €64.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €56.52, optimistic scenario €94.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gecina SA (GFC)?
Gecina SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €865M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Gecina SA pay a dividend?
Gecina SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gecina SA (GFC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gecina SA it is €75.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €64.65. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gecina SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GFC trades below its calculated fair value: price €64.65, fair value €75.35, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€64.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€75.35). For Gecina SA the two are €10.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gecina SA worth?
The market values Gecina SA at about €5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €64.65; our models calculate a fair value of €75.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFC?
Our models span a range for Gecina SA: cautious scenario €56.52, base €75.35, optimistic €94.19 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €64.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GFC?
Gecina SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €75.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 12.3, P/B 0.6, P/S 7.3, EV/EBITDA 16.5.
What is the PEG ratio of GFC?
The PEG ratio of Gecina SA is 12.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gecina SA (GFC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gecina SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFC from its 52-week high?
Gecina SA trades at €64.65, about 19% below its 52-week high of €79.86 and 3% above the low of €62.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €75.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gecina SA?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, Vornado Realty Trust, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gecina SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €64.65, calculated fair value €75.35 (+17%), Quality Score 54/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFC calculated?
We run Gecina SA through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €75.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Gecina SA currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €64.65. Our model-based fair value is €75.35, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gecina SA right now?
As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Gecina SA (GFC) come from?
Earnings per share at Gecina SA grew −10.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Gecina SA

How large is the market capitalisation of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The market capitalisation of Gecina SA is €5.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gecina SA is 5.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gecina SA (GFC)?
Earnings per share at Gecina SA are €6.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The dividend yield of Gecina SA is 8.5% (payout 91.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The net margin of Gecina SA is 52.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gecina SA is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gecina SA (GFC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gecina SA is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The operating margin of Gecina SA is 75.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Gecina SA (GFC)?
Earnings per share at Gecina SA are growing −28.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gecina SA (GFC) generate?
The free cash flow of Gecina SA is −€491M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gecina SA (GFC) carry?
The net debt of Gecina SA is €6.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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