Gecina SA (GFC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gecina SA stock €75.51, price €65.95, upside +14.5%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €59.39 – €93.52 · fair‑value band €56.63 – €94.39 · the €65.95 price screens below the €75.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Gecina is a leading operator that fully integrates all real estate expertise, owning, managing, and developing a unique prime portfolio valued at 17.6bn euros as at December 31, 2025.
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Strategically located in the most central areas of Paris and the Paris Region, Gecina's portfolio includes 1.2 million sq.m of office space and nearly 5,300 residential units.
By combining long-term value creation with operational excellence, Gecina offers high-quality, sustainable living and working environments tailored to the evolving needs of urban users.
As a committed operator, Gecina enhances its assets with high-value services and dynamic property and asset management, fostering vibrant communities. Through its YouFirst brand, Gecina places user experience at the heart of its strategy.
In line with its social responsibility commitments, the Foundation Gecina supports initiatives across four core pillars: disability inclusion, environmental protection, cultural heritage, and housing access.
Gecina is a French real estate investment trust (SIIC) listed on Euronext Paris, and is part of the SBF 120, CAC Next 20 and CAC Large 60 indices.
Gecina is also recognized as one of the top-performing companies in its industry by leading sustainability rankings (GRESB, Sustainalytics, MSCI, ISS-ESG, and CDP) and is committed to radically reducing its carbon emissions by 2030. Gecina was incorporated in 10th February 1959 in France.
Stock analysis
Gecina SA (GFC) currently trades at €65.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €75.51, implying the stock looks roughly 13% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €103.60 per share, and 5 of the 8 models we run sit above the €65.95 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €59.99, and 3 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €56.63 (bear) to €94.39 (bull), the price of €65.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Gecina SA reported revenue of €859M in FY2025 versus €762M in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was €448M in FY2025, compounding −14.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €4.9B Mid · P/E ratio 30.3 · P/S ratio 5.53 · EPS (TTM) €2.18 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 18.4% · Return on equity 1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 14%, GFC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€56.63Fair Value €75.51Bull€94.39
Price €65.95 · Upside +14.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.1% vs −7.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56% → 65%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 86% above its own trend.
AI conclusion: High margins form the main strength of this office REIT, offset by negative free cash flow and high debt as the central weakness.
Main risk: Capital from asset sales may mainly fund defensive repositioning rather than strengthening the prime Paris core, limiting lasting outperformance.
Gecina keeps executing on its asset rotation plan by securing office disposals at a clear premium to the latest appraisals. Strong investor appetite for French offices supports this move on non-strategic holdings. Will the capital released strengthen the prime Paris core enough to drive lasting outperformance or mainly just fund defensive repositioning?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 63 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+14.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)18.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)64.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)8.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gecina SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GFC
Frequently asked questions
Is Gecina SA (GFC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €75.51 versus a price of €65.95, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GFC?
Our model-based fair value for Gecina SA is €75.51 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €65.95.
What is the quality score of GFC?
Gecina SA has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gecina SA (GFC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €75.51 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario €56.63, optimistic scenario €94.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gecina SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €75.51, about +14% upside versus a price of €65.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €56.63, optimistic scenario €94.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gecina SA (GFC)?
Gecina SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €884M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Gecina SA pay a dividend?
Gecina SA currently shows a dividend yield of 8.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Gecina SA (GFC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Gecina SA pays a dividend of €5.50 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 7, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1990. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Gecina SA (GFC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gecina SA it is €75.51 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €65.95. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Gecina SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, GFC trades below its calculated fair value: price €65.95, fair value €75.51, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€65.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€75.51). For Gecina SA the two are €9.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gecina SA worth?
The market values Gecina SA at about €4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €65.95; our models calculate a fair value of €75.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFC?
Our models span a range for Gecina SA: cautious scenario €56.63, base €75.51, optimistic €94.39 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €65.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GFC?
Gecina SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.3 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €75.51 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.7. Other multiples: PEG 12.3, P/B 0.5, P/S 5.5, EV/EBITDA 15.3.
What is the PEG ratio of GFC?
The PEG ratio of Gecina SA is 12.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gecina SA (GFC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gecina SA (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 1.6%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFC from its 52-week high?
Gecina SA trades at €65.95, about 14% below its 52-week high of €76.62 and 11% above the low of €59.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €75.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gecina SA?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gecina SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €65.95, calculated fair value €75.51 (+14%), Quality Score 56/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFC calculated?
We run Gecina SA through 9 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €75.51 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Gecina SA currently trades 13% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €65.95. Our model-based fair value is €75.51, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gecina SA right now?
As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Gecina SA (GFC) come from?
Earnings per share at Gecina SA grew −10.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gecina SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The market capitalisation of Gecina SA is €4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gecina SA is 5.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gecina SA (GFC)?
Earnings per share at Gecina SA are €2.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The dividend yield of Gecina SA is 8.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The net margin of Gecina SA is 18.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gecina SA is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gecina SA (GFC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gecina SA is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gecina SA (GFC)?
The operating margin of Gecina SA is 64.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gecina SA (GFC)?
Revenue at Gecina SA is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gecina SA (GFC)?
Earnings per share at Gecina SA are growing −99.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gecina SA (GFC) generate?
The free cash flow of Gecina SA is −€491M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gecina SA (GFC) carry?
The net debt of Gecina SA is €6.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026