Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Vornado Realty Trust $48.20, price $50.11, upside -3.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.92 – $120.38 · fair‑value band $29.34 – $75.03 · the $50.11 price screens above the $48.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Vornado Realty Trust is a fully integrated real estate investment trust with a 26 million square-foot portfolio of premier New York City office, retail and multifamily assets and the developer of the new PENN DISTRICT. While concentrated in New York, Vornado also owns premier assets in both Chicago and San Francisco.
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Vornado Realty Trust is a fully integrated real estate investment trust with a 26 million square-foot portfolio of premier New York City office, retail and multifamily assets and the developer of the new PENN DISTRICT. While concentrated in New York, Vornado also owns premier assets in both Chicago and San Francisco. Vornado is a real estate industry leader in sustainability, with 100% of our in-service office buildings LEED certified and over 95% certified LEED Gold or Platinum. Vornado Realty Trust was incorporated in 1946 in Maryland, USA.
Stock analysis
Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP) currently trades at $50.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.20, implying the stock looks roughly 4.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $87.38 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the $50.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.92, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $29.34 (bear) to $75.03 (bull), the price of $50.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vornado Realty Trust reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $905M in FY2025, compounding +50.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.6B · P/E ratio 80.4 · P/S ratio 40.2 · EPS (TTM) $0.6440 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 50.0% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −4%, VNORP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $29.34Fair Value $48.20Bull $75.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.2% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs 0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.9% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 68 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
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Is Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.20 versus a price of $50.11, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VNORP?
Our model-based fair value for Vornado Realty Trust is $48.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $50.11.
What is the quality score of VNORP?
Vornado Realty Trust has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.34, optimistic scenario $75.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vornado Realty Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.20, about −4% upside versus a price of $50.11 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $29.34, optimistic scenario $75.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
Vornado Realty Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Vornado Realty Trust pay a dividend?
Vornado Realty Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vornado Realty Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VNORP use?
Our models discount Vornado Realty Trust at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.57, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vornado Realty Trust that is +4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vornado Realty Trust grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies +4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vornado Realty Trust (+4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.10 %: that much free cash flow Vornado Realty Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vornado Realty Trust it is $48.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $50.11. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vornado Realty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VNORP trades above its calculated fair value: price $50.11, fair value $48.20, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VNORP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($50.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.20). For Vornado Realty Trust the two are $1.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vornado Realty Trust worth?
The market values Vornado Realty Trust at about $9.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $50.11; our models calculate a fair value of $48.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VNORP?
Our models span a range for Vornado Realty Trust: cautious scenario $29.34, base $48.20, optimistic $75.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $50.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VNORP?
Vornado Realty Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 80.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $48.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 7.3, EV/EBITDA 25.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vornado Realty Trust (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 1.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VNORP from its 52-week high?
Vornado Realty Trust trades at $50.11, about 39% below its 52-week high of $82.00 and at the low of $50.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vornado Realty Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vornado Realty Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $50.11, calculated fair value $48.20 (−4%), Quality Score 68/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VNORP calculated?
We run Vornado Realty Trust through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Vornado Realty Trust itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $50.11. Our model-based fair value is $48.20, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vornado Realty Trust right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($29.34 to $75.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP) come from?
Earnings per share at Vornado Realty Trust grew −9.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.0 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vornado Realty Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
The market capitalisation of Vornado Realty Trust is $9.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vornado Realty Trust is 40.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
Earnings per share at Vornado Realty Trust are $0.6440 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 80.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
The dividend yield of Vornado Realty Trust is 1.5% (payout 115%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
The net margin of Vornado Realty Trust is 50.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vornado Realty Trust is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vornado Realty Trust is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
The operating margin of Vornado Realty Trust is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
Revenue at Vornado Realty Trust is growing −2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP)?
Earnings per share at Vornado Realty Trust are growing +12.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vornado Realty Trust (VNORP) carry?
The net debt of Vornado Realty Trust is $7.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026