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CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CNFinance Holdings Ltd $3.28, price $1.93, upside +70.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · Based in China · ISIN US18979T2042

CH CNFinance Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Oct 4, 2026

CNFinance Holdings Ltd

CNF · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

Fair value $3.28 · Strongly undervalued (+70.0%)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (4/9)
Quality 39/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −19.3 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -73.1% net margin (FY2025)
Narrow moat 32/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$59.00 $1.74 Fair Value $3.28 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.74 – $59.00 · fair‑value band $2.58 – $4.44 · the $1.93 price screens below the $3.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

CNFinance Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides home equity loan services in Mainland China. The company offers micro credit loan services for micro and small-enterprise owners; loan facilitation, post facilitation, and guarantee services for commercial banks; and loan lending agency services for financial institutions.

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CNFinance Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides home equity loan services in Mainland China. The company offers micro credit loan services for micro and small-enterprise owners; loan facilitation, post facilitation, and guarantee services for commercial banks; and loan lending agency services for financial institutions. It also provides bridge loan products, which are unsecured short-term loans to pay off borrowers' existing loans secured by real property. CNFinance Holdings Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF) currently trades at $1.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.28, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.58 (bear) to $4.44 (bull), the price of $1.93 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

CNFinance Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 626M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −17.8%/yr. Reported net income was −458M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $32.5M · EPS (TTM) $−9.84 · Net margin −73.1% · Return on equity −23.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin 113% · Revenue (TTM) −$930M · Revenue growth (YoY) −75.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 70%, CNF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.58 Fair Value $3.28 Bull $4.44
Price $1.93 · Upside +70.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $80.89 $104.03 $142.35 79
Rev-Margin DCF $47.25 $56.90 $67.85 74
NCAV (Graham) $38.96 $52.21 $77.93 54
All 3 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $38.96 $52.21 $77.93 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $80.89 $104.03 $142.35 79
Rev-Margin DCF $47.25 $56.90 $67.85 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 3
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−60.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−30.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.9% (2020) → −11.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 88 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +70.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −7.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −73.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 112.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −75.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 0.4× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 84
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 2
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 97

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCCT $12.00 $24.00 +100%
Rocket Companies, Inc RKT $11.97 $2.81 −77%
Federal National Mortgage Association FNMAS $8.40 $2.00 −76%
Bajaj Housing Finance Limited BAJAJHFL ₹83.14 ₹25.20 −70%
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc PFSI $62.00 $124.00 +100%
LIC Housing Finance Limited LICHSGFIN ₹564.15 ₹1,128 +100%
PNB Housing Finance Limited PNBHOUSING ₹1,098 ₹1,329 +21%
Aadhar Housing Finance Limited AADHARHFC ₹448.40 ₹611.66 +36%
UWM Holdings UWMC $1.26 $0.2200 −83%
Guild Holdings GHLD $64.54 $55.87 −13%

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CNFinance Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
$3.28 +41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CNFinance Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNF

Frequently asked questions

Is CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.28 versus a price of $1.93, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CNF?
Our model-based fair value for CNFinance Holdings Ltd is $3.28 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.93.
What is the quality score of CNF?
CNFinance Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.28 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.58, optimistic scenario $4.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CNFinance Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.28, about +70% upside versus a price of $1.93 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.58, optimistic scenario $4.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CNFinance Holdings Ltd it is $3.28 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of $1.93. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CNFinance Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, CNF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.93, fair value $3.28, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.28). For CNFinance Holdings Ltd the two are $1.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CNFinance Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values CNFinance Holdings Ltd at about $32.5M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is $1.93; our models calculate a fair value of $3.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNF?
Our models span a range for CNFinance Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario $2.58, base $3.28, optimistic $4.44 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price $1.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
Balance-sheet figures for CNFinance Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −23.0%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CNF from its 52-week high?
CNFinance Holdings Ltd trades at $1.93, about 70% below its 52-week high of $6.41 and 11% above the low of $1.74 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CNFinance Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Rocket Companies, Inc, Federal National Mortgage Association, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CNFinance Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price $1.93, calculated fair value $3.28 (+70%), Quality Score 39/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNF calculated?
We run CNFinance Holdings Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. CNFinance Holdings Ltd currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.93. Our model-based fair value is $3.28, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CNFinance Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.58). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of CNFinance Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
The market capitalisation of CNFinance Holdings Ltd is $32.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
Earnings per share at CNFinance Holdings Ltd are $−9.84. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
The net margin of CNFinance Holdings Ltd is −73.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CNFinance Holdings Ltd is −23.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CNFinance Holdings Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
The operating margin of CNFinance Holdings Ltd is 113% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF) generate?
CNFinance Holdings Ltd generates revenue of −$930M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
Revenue at CNFinance Holdings Ltd is growing −75.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −30.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF)?
Earnings per share at CNFinance Holdings Ltd are growing −33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF) generate?
The free cash flow of CNFinance Holdings Ltd is 78.7M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does CNFinance Holdings Ltd (CNF) carry?
The net debt of CNFinance Holdings Ltd is 3.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 43.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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