UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.3B · ISIN US91823B1098
What is UWM Holdings Corp really worth?
UWM Holdings Corp
UWMC · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 973% above our fair value of $0.1360.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price −25.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.20 – $7.96 · fair‑value band $0.1020 – $0.1700 · the $1.46 price screens above the $0.1360 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC) currently trades at $1.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1360, implying the stock looks roughly 973.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.4300 per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the $1.46 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.0600, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, UWM Holdings Corp generated revenue of $3.6B at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 24.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 40.9%. Net debt stands at $13.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.1020 (bear case) to $0.1700 (bull case); at $1.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −91%, UWMC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($4.85) versus Asset-Based ($0.0600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (71).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 0
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
UWM Holdings Corporation engages in the origination, sale, and servicing residential mortgage lending in the United States. The company offers mortgage loans through wholesale channel. It originates primarily conforming and government loans. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Pontiac, Michigan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
UWM Holdings Corp reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $27.4M in FY2025, compounding −27.4%/yr from FY2021.
UWMC screens 973% overvalued. Compare with Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- UWM Holdings (UWMC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- TWO Responds to Baseless Claims by UWMC
- UWM Holdings (UWMC) Stock May Be Above Fair Value After Dividend Suspension
Peer Group
Mortgage Finance · 92 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCCT | $15.00 | $30.00 | +100% |
| Rocket Companies, Inc RKT | $13.03 | $8.26 | −37% |
| Federal National Mortgage Association FNMAS | $10.06 | $2.01 | −80% |
| Bajaj Housing Finance Limited BAJAJHFL | ₹84.06 | ₹39.96 | −52% |
| PennyMac Financial Services, Inc PFSI | $70.78 | $125.45 | +77% |
| PNB Housing Finance Limited PNBHOUSING | ₹1,169 | ₹1,143 | −2% |
| LIC Housing Finance Limited LICHSGFIN | ₹502.00 | ₹1,004 | +100% |
| Aadhar Housing Finance Limited AADHARHFC | ₹471.10 | ₹325.75 | −31% |
| Walker & Dunlop, Inc WD | $39.71 | $32.25 | −19% |
| Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited APTUS | ₹258.50 | ₹244.80 | −5% |
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