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UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of UWM Holdings Corp stock $0.22, price $1.05, upside -79.0%, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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UH
Thin data
Oct 12, 2026
Thin data
Oct 12, 2026
UWM Holdings Corp
UWMC · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
Our calculation puts a fair price 79% below what the stock costs today.
Loss over the last twelve months · -1.3% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.9%
Insider activity 46/100
Fair value $0.2200 · Strongly overvalued (−79.0%)
Quality 33/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.2 %/yr in USD)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/9)
Narrow moat 14/100 · thin data
Thin data
Watch UWM Holdings Corp for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.01 – $7.96 · fair‑value band $0.1700 – $0.2800 · the $1.05 price screens above the $0.2200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
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Company profile
UWM Holdings Corporation engages in the origination, sale, and servicing residential mortgage lending in the United States. The company offers mortgage loans through wholesale channel. It originates primarily conforming and government loans.
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The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Pontiac, Michigan.
Stock analysis
UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC) currently trades at $1.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2200, 79.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.7500 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $1.05 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.1300, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1700 (bear) to $0.2800 (bull), the price of $1.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
UWM Holdings Corp reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $27.4M in FY2025, compounding −27.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B · P/E ratio 6.7 · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1000 · Net margin −1.3% · Return on equity −7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% · Operating margin −111%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 81% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −79%, UWMC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1700
Fair Value $0.2200
Bull $0.2800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income
$0.1100
$0.1300
$0.1600
74
Owner Earnings
$0.2800
$0.7500
$1.59
67
Gordon GGM
$0.3700
$0.6400
$0.8500
66
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$0.2800
$0.7500
$1.59
67
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.1200
$0.8100
$1.13
61
Lynch FV
$0.4200
$0.6000
$0.7800
59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.3700
$0.6400
$0.8500
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.3700
$0.6000
$0.6900
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.1700
$0.2200
$0.2800
63
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.1100
$0.1300
$0.1600
74
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
33/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability
24
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth
87
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow
0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength
10
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment
67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility
0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum
0
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high
1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares
40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+65.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.4%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 18%
UWMC screens overvalued: fair value 79% below the price. Compare with Rocket Companies, Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- What Do The UWM Holdings (UWMC) Lawsuits Mean For Investors?
- UWM Holdings (UWMC) Stock Looks Fully Priced As Shares Fell 79%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 59 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PennyMac Financial Services, Inc PFSI | $60.32 | $120.64 | +100% | vs UWMC |
| LIC Housing Finance Limited LICHSGFIN | ₹521.00 | ₹1,042 | +100% | vs UWMC |
| Federal National Mortgage Association FNMA | $3.47 | $5.20 | +50% | vs UWMC |
| Aadhar Housing Finance Limited AADHARHFC | ₹448.40 | ₹611.66 | +36% | vs UWMC |
| PNB Housing Finance Limited PNBHOUSING | ₹1,168 | ₹1,329 | +14% | vs UWMC |
| Guild Holdings GHLD | $64.48 | $55.87 | −13% | vs UWMC |
| Bajaj Housing Finance Limited BAJAJHFL | ₹82.67 | ₹25.20 | −70% | vs UWMC |
| Home First Finance Company HOMEFIRST | ₹1,126 | ₹314.30 | −72% | vs UWMC |
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCKI | $5.40 | $1.50 | −72% | vs UWMC |
| Rocket Companies, Inc RKT | $10.78 | $2.81 | −74% | vs UWMC |
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Frequently asked questions
Is UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2200 versus a price of $1.05, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UWMC?
Our model-based fair value for UWM Holdings Corp is $0.2200 (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.05.
What is the quality score of UWMC?
UWM Holdings Corp has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2200 (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1700, optimistic scenario $0.2800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UWM Holdings Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2200, about −79% upside versus a price of $1.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1700, optimistic scenario $0.2800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
UWM Holdings Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UWM Holdings Corp it is $0.2200 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of $1.05. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is UWM Holdings Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, UWMC trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.05, fair value $0.2200, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UWMC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2200). For UWM Holdings Corp the two are $0.8300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UWM Holdings Corp worth?
The market values UWM Holdings Corp at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is $1.05; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UWMC?
Our models span a range for UWM Holdings Corp: cautious scenario $0.1700, base $0.2200, optimistic $0.2800 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price $1.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UWMC?
UWM Holdings Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.7 (as of Oct 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.2200 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
Balance-sheet figures for UWM Holdings Corp (as of Oct 12, 2026): return on equity −7.7%, debt of 15.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UWMC from its 52-week high?
UWM Holdings Corp trades at $1.05, about 81% below its 52-week high of $5.67 and 4% above the low of $1.01 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UWM Holdings Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Rocket Companies, Inc, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Federal National Mortgage Association, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UWM Holdings Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price $1.05, calculated fair value $0.2200 (−79%), Quality Score 33/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UWMC calculated?
We run UWM Holdings Corp through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. UWM Holdings Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was $1.05. Our model-based fair value is $0.2200, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UWM Holdings Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of UWM Holdings Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
The market capitalisation of UWM Holdings Corp is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UWM Holdings Corp is 0.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
Earnings per share at UWM Holdings Corp are $−0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
The net margin of UWM Holdings Corp is −1.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UWM Holdings Corp is −7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UWM Holdings Corp is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
The operating margin of UWM Holdings Corp is −111% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
Revenue at UWM Holdings Corp is growing −70.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)?
Earnings per share at UWM Holdings Corp are growing +278% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC) generate?
The free cash flow of UWM Holdings Corp is −$2.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC) carry?
The net debt of UWM Holdings Corp is $13.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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