ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. $18.34, price $30.50, upside -39.9%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.30 – $34.11 · fair‑value band $13.75 – $18.34 · the $30.50 price screens above the $18.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow ConnectOne Bancorp in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether ConnectOne Bancorp is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for ConnectOne Bank that provides commercial banking products and services for small and mid-sized businesses, local professionals, and individuals in the United States.
Show more
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for ConnectOne Bank that provides commercial banking products and services for small and mid-sized businesses, local professionals, and individuals in the United States. The company offers personal and business checking, money market, and time and savings accounts; credit cards, wire transfers, safe deposit boxes, automated teller services and telephone, and internet and mobile banking. It also provides retirement accounts, consumer and cash management services for business clients, including treasury direct, automated clearing house origination, remote deposit capture, and digital invoicing. In addition, the company offers consumer and commercial business loans, including lines of credit, commercial and residential mortgages, home equity and bridge loans, and other personal loans; commercial loans secured by collateral, such as business assets including accounts receivable, inventory and equipment, and mortgages filed on commercial and residential real estate, as well as cash balances and marketable securities. Further, the company provides real estate loans, which includes loans secured by first liens on completed commercial properties, including multifamily properties, to purchase or refinance properties; residential mortgages, such as loans secured by first liens on 1-4 family and condominiums; and cooperative residential real estate loans. The company was formerly known as Center Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. in July 2014. ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) currently trades at $30.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.34, implying the stock looks roughly 66.3% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $22.64 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $30.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.66, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.75 (bear) to $18.34 (bull), the price of $30.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. reported revenue of $606M in FY2025 versus $317M in FY2021, a compound +17.6%/yr. Reported net income was $80.4M in FY2025, compounding −11.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) $1.86 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 13.3% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −40%, CNOB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.75Fair Value $18.34Bull $18.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8229 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.0% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.8% a year for the price and −1.6% for the forecasts.
Compare ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−40% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)26% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)54% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth66% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.98× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)4.06× · Pricier than median
P/FCF15.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.2× · Pricier than median
PEG1.83× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)28· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)48· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNOB
Frequently asked questions
Is ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.34 versus a price of $30.50, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNOB?
Our model-based fair value for ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is $18.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.50.
What is the quality score of CNOB?
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.75, optimistic scenario $18.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.34, about −40% upside versus a price of $30.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.75, optimistic scenario $18.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $378M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. pay a dividend?
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNOB use?
Our models discount ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.57 %: that much free cash flow ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. it is $18.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $30.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CNOB trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.50, fair value $18.34, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNOB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.34). For ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. the two are $12.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. worth?
The market values ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $30.50; our models calculate a fair value of $18.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNOB?
Our models span a range for ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.: cautious scenario $13.75, base $18.34, optimistic $18.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $30.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CNOB?
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.0, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CNOB?
The PEG ratio of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
Balance-sheet figures for ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CNOB from its 52-week high?
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. trades at $30.50, about 11% below its 52-week high of $34.11 and 34% above the low of $22.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $30.50, calculated fair value $18.34 (−40%), Quality Score 38/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNOB calculated?
We run ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $30.50. Our model-based fair value is $18.34, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) come from?
Earnings per share at ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. grew +6.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.1 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
The market capitalisation of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is 2.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
Earnings per share at ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. are $1.86 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
The dividend yield of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is 2.4% (payout 39.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
The net margin of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is 13.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
The operating margin of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is 53.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
Revenue at ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is growing +65.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)?
Earnings per share at ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. are growing +47.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) carry?
The net debt of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. in the live analysis
One click puts ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026