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Contact Energy Limited (COENF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Contact Energy Limited $3.40, price $5.03, upside -32.4%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Contact Energy Limited
COENF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $3.40 · Overvalued (−32.4%)
!Quality 58/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!7.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 57/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.46 – $6.36 · fair‑value band $1.88 – $5.60 · the $5.03 price screens above the $3.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Contact Energy Limited generates and sells electricity and natural gas in New Zealand. It operates through Wholesale and Retail segments.
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Contact Energy Limited generates and sells electricity and natural gas in New Zealand. It operates through Wholesale and Retail segments. The company involved in selling electricity to the wholesale electricity market, to commercial and industrial customers; and delivering electricity, natural gas, broadband, and other products and services to mass market customers. It also provides bottled gas products. In addition, the company owns and operates hydro, geothermal, and thermal power stations. Contact Energy Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Contact Energy Limited (COENF) currently trades at $5.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.40, 32.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $8.19 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $5.03 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.05, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.88 (bear) to $5.60 (bull), the price of $5.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Contact Energy Limited reported revenue of 3.4B NZD in FY2025 versus 2.6B NZD in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was 331M NZD in FY2025, compounding +15.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.6B · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 1.88 · EPS (TTM) $0.2600 · Dividend yield 7.8% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −32%, COENF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.88
Fair Value $3.40
Bull $5.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
$2.07
$2.54
$2.95
74
Residual Income
$1.43
$1.65
$2.16
74
Growth DCF
$0.5800
$1.90
$4.04
69
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.6700
$1.52
$4.15
68
Owner Earnings
$0.2200
$1.58
$4.31
63
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.23
$5.03
$10.95
64
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.31
$5.21
$10.90
67
5Y P/E Exit
$1.42
$4.51
$8.76
63
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.66
$5.89
$8.96
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.87
$6.08
$13.68
59
10Y P/E Exit
$1.23
$4.20
$9.17
56
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.27
$8.88
$12.46
61
Lynch FV
$4.59
$6.55
$8.52
59
PEG = 1.0
$4.59
$6.55
$8.52
55
EPV
$2.07
$2.54
$2.95
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.9800
$1.96
$2.97
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.9800
$1.69
$2.07
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.53
$3.37
$4.21
63
P/S Multiple
$2.39
$3.18
$3.98
58
P/B Multiple
$2.11
$2.81
$3.51
55
EV/EBIT
$3.62
$5.12
$6.62
65
EV/EBITDA
$2.84
$4.09
$5.33
67
EV/Revenue
$2.48
$3.93
$5.38
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.7800
$1.05
$1.56
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.5800
$1.90
$4.04
69
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.58
$5.88
$12.73
64
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.43
$1.65
$2.16
74
ROIC Compounder
$2.68
$4.07
$5.30
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.73
$8.19
$10.64
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Profitability
41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
76
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+22.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.7% vs 5.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 21%
2025 sits 79% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.7% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.9%
COENF screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (73 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Contact Energy Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- Is Contact Energy Limited (NZSE:CEN) Trading At A 35% Discount?
- Should Weakness in Contact Energy Limited's (NZSE:CEN) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financi
- Contact Energy Limited's (NZSE:CEN) top owners are individual investors with 48% stake, while 43% is held by institutions
Compare Contact Energy Limited with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Contact Energy Limited (COENF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.40 versus a price of $5.03, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COENF?
Our model-based fair value for Contact Energy Limited is $3.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.03.
What is the quality score of COENF?
Contact Energy Limited has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.88, optimistic scenario $5.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Contact Energy Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.40, about −32% upside versus a price of $5.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.88, optimistic scenario $5.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
Contact Energy Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Contact Energy Limited pay a dividend?
Contact Energy Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Contact Energy Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +35.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COENF use?
Our models discount Contact Energy Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Contact Energy Limited that is +35.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Contact Energy Limited (COENF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Contact Energy Limited grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies +35.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Contact Energy Limited (COENF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Contact Energy Limited (+35.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.34 %: that much free cash flow Contact Energy Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Contact Energy Limited it is $3.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.03. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Contact Energy Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, COENF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.03, fair value $3.40, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COENF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.40). For Contact Energy Limited the two are $1.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Contact Energy Limited worth?
The market values Contact Energy Limited at about $5.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.03; our models calculate a fair value of $3.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COENF?
Our models span a range for Contact Energy Limited: cautious scenario $1.88, base $3.40, optimistic $5.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is COENF from its 52-week high?
Contact Energy Limited trades at $5.03, about 21% below its 52-week high of $6.36 and at the low of $5.03 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Contact Energy Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Contact Energy Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.03, calculated fair value $3.40 (−32%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COENF calculated?
We run Contact Energy Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Contact Energy Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $5.03. Our model-based fair value is $3.40, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Contact Energy Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($1.88 to $5.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Contact Energy Limited (COENF) come from?
Earnings per share at Contact Energy Limited grew +1.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.6 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Contact Energy Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
The market capitalisation of Contact Energy Limited is $5.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Contact Energy Limited is 19.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Contact Energy Limited is 1.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
Earnings per share at Contact Energy Limited are $0.2600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
The dividend yield of Contact Energy Limited is 7.8% (payout 150%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
The net margin of Contact Energy Limited is 9.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Contact Energy Limited is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Contact Energy Limited is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
The operating margin of Contact Energy Limited is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
Revenue at Contact Energy Limited is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Contact Energy Limited (COENF)?
Earnings per share at Contact Energy Limited are growing +16.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Contact Energy Limited (COENF) carry?
The net debt of Contact Energy Limited is 1.9B NZD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 20.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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