Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc C$31.69, price C$13.65, upside +132.2%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.50 – C$19.74 · fair‑value band C$18.04 – C$54.54 · the C$13.65 price screens below the C$31.69 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc. operates as a specialty pharmaceutical company in Canada.
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Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc. operates as a specialty pharmaceutical company in Canada. It offers Epuris (isotretinoin), an oral retinoid for the treatment of severe nodular and/or inflammatory acne, acne conglobate, and recalcitrant acne; Actikerall, a topical solution for the treatment of slightly palpable and/or moderately thick hyperkeratotic actinic keratosis (Grade I/II) of the face, forehead, and balding scalp; Vaniqa, a topical cream for the slowing of the growth of unwanted facial hair in women; Durela, an opioid analgesic for the management of moderate to moderately severe pain in adults; Brinavess for the rapid conversion of onset atrial fibrillation to sinus rhythm in adults; Aggrastat, a reversible GP IIb/IIIa inhibitor for use in patients with acute coronary syndrome; and Natroba for the topical treatment of head lice and scabies infestations in adult and pediatric patients. The company's licensed products comprise Absorica, an oral retinoid for the treatment of severe nodular and/or inflammatory acne, acne conglobate, and recalcitrant acne; Conzip, an opioid agonist for the management of moderate to moderately severe chronic pain in adults; and Lipofen, an adjunctive therapy to diet to reduce elevated LDL-C, total-C, triglycerides, and Apo B, as well as to increase HDL-C. Its pipeline products include piclidenoson CF-101, a novel chemical entity for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis; MOB-015, a topical formulation of terbinafine, which is in phase 3 clinical trial for treatment of onychomycosis; and DTR-001, a tattoo removal cream. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Mississauga, Canada.
Stock analysis
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH) currently trades at C$13.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$31.69, implying the stock looks roughly 56.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$42.06 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$13.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$4.71, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$18.04 (bear) to C$54.54 (bull), the price of C$13.65 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $51.3M in FY2025 versus $21.9M in FY2021, a compound +23.7%/yr. Reported net income was $27.8M in FY2025, compounding +37.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$416M (≈ $293M) · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 4.38 · EPS (TTM) C$1.69 · Net margin 54.2% · Return on equity 25.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6% · Operating margin 44.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 132%, CPH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$18.04Fair Value C$31.69Bull C$54.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$1.26 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+53.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+45.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45.1% vs 31.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56% → 33%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.7% a year for the price and +15.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (9 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+132.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)60.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)44.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$31.69 versus a price of C$13.65, about +132% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CPH?
Our model-based fair value for Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc is C$31.69 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$13.65.
What is the quality score of CPH?
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$31.69 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$18.04, optimistic scenario C$54.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$31.69, about +132% upside versus a price of C$13.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$18.04, optimistic scenario C$54.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $50.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPH use?
Our models discount Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc that is -3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc grew +18.9 % a year. The price currently implies -3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (-3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.08 %: that much free cash flow Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc it is C$31.69 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$13.65. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, CPH trades below its calculated fair value: price C$13.65, fair value C$31.69, a gap of about +132% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$13.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$31.69). For Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are C$18.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc at about C$416M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$13.65; our models calculate a fair value of C$31.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPH?
Our models span a range for Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario C$18.04, base C$31.69, optimistic C$54.54 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$13.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CPH?
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$31.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 10.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 25.9%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPH from its 52-week high?
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at C$13.65, about 31% below its 52-week high of C$19.74 and 4% above the low of C$13.15 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$31.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$13.65, calculated fair value C$31.69 (+132%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPH calculated?
We run Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$31.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc currently trades 132 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$13.65. Our model-based fair value is C$31.69, about +132% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$18.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (C$18.04 to C$54.54). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
The market capitalisation of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc is C$416M (≈ $293M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc is 4.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
Earnings per share at Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc are C$1.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
The net margin of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc is 54.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc is 25.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
The operating margin of Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc is 44.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
Revenue at Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH)?
Earnings per share at Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing +140% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPH) hold?
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $2.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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