CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding CHF 50.56, price CHF 59.80, upside -15.5%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 36.77 – CHF 78.62 · fair‑value band CHF 35.39 – CHF 65.73 · the CHF 59.80 price screens above the CHF 50.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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CPH Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and distributes chemical products and packaging solutions for pharmaceutical customers in Europe, Asia, and North and South America. It operates through two segments: Zeochem and Perlen Packaging.
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CPH Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and distributes chemical products and packaging solutions for pharmaceutical customers in Europe, Asia, and North and South America. It operates through two segments: Zeochem and Perlen Packaging. The Zeochem segment produces molecular sieves for industrial and medical applications, chromatography gels for the pharmaceutical industry, and deuterated products used in analytics, pharmaceuticals, and OLED displays. This segment also operates production facilities in Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the USA, Canada, China, and India. The Perlen Packaging segment focuses on the pharmaceutical industry, supplying coated plastic films used primarily in blister packaging to protect medications, as well as vials and containers for medical use; and PVC mono films and coated PVdC barrier films for use in the pharmaceutical industry. CPH Group AG was founded in 1818 and is based in Perlen, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN) currently trades at CHF 59.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 50.56, implying the stock looks roughly 18.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 66.24 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the CHF 59.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 16.76, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 35.39 (bear) to CHF 65.73 (bull), the price of CHF 59.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
CPH Chemie und Papier Holding reported revenue of CHF 334M in FY2025 versus CHF 497M in FY2021, a compound −9.4%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 23.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 359M · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) CHF 3.90 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −15%, CPHN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 35.39Fair Value CHF 50.56Bull CHF 65.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 1.40 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13% vs 8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.2% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
Compare CPH Chemie und Papier Holding with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 122 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CPH Chemie und Papier Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPHN
Frequently asked questions
Is CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 50.56 versus a price of CHF 59.80, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CPHN?
Our model-based fair value for CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is CHF 50.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 59.80.
What is the quality score of CPHN?
CPH Chemie und Papier Holding has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 50.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 35.39, optimistic scenario CHF 65.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CPH Chemie und Papier Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 50.56, about −15% upside versus a price of CHF 59.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 35.39, optimistic scenario CHF 65.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
CPH Chemie und Papier Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 334M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does CPH Chemie und Papier Holding pay a dividend?
CPH Chemie und Papier Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CPH Chemie und Papier Holding would have to grow free cash flow by +16.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPHN use?
Our models discount CPH Chemie und Papier Holding at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CPH Chemie und Papier Holding that is +16.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CPH Chemie und Papier Holding grew -5.6 % a year. The price currently implies +16.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (+16.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.58 %: that much free cash flow CPH Chemie und Papier Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CPH Chemie und Papier Holding it is CHF 50.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 59.80. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CPH Chemie und Papier Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CPHN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 59.80, fair value CHF 50.56, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPHN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 59.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 50.56). For CPH Chemie und Papier Holding the two are CHF 9.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CPH Chemie und Papier Holding worth?
The market values CPH Chemie und Papier Holding at about CHF 359M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 59.80; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 50.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPHN?
Our models span a range for CPH Chemie und Papier Holding: cautious scenario CHF 35.39, base CHF 50.56, optimistic CHF 65.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price CHF 59.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CPHN?
CPH Chemie und Papier Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 50.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
Balance-sheet figures for CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.3%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPHN from its 52-week high?
CPH Chemie und Papier Holding trades at CHF 59.80, about 17% below its 52-week high of CHF 72.48 and 10% above the low of CHF 54.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 50.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CPH Chemie und Papier Holding?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CPH Chemie und Papier Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price CHF 59.80, calculated fair value CHF 50.56 (−15%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPHN calculated?
We run CPH Chemie und Papier Holding through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 50.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. CPH Chemie und Papier Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was CHF 59.80. Our model-based fair value is CHF 50.56, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CPH Chemie und Papier Holding right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (CHF 35.39 to CHF 65.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
The market capitalisation of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is CHF 359M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is 1.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
Earnings per share at CPH Chemie und Papier Holding are CHF 3.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
The dividend yield of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is 3.3% (payout 51.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
The net margin of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
The operating margin of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
Revenue at CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN)?
Earnings per share at CPH Chemie und Papier Holding are growing −53.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CPH Chemie und Papier Holding (CPHN) carry?
The net debt of CPH Chemie und Papier Holding is CHF 26.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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