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Chesnara (CSN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Chesnara £2.36, price £3.54, upside -33.2%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · GB · ISIN GB00B00FPT80

C Some data Sep 23, 2026

Chesnara

CSN · LSE

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value £2.36 · Overvalued (−33%)
!Quality 24/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +9.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·6.36% dividend yield
!Trails peers (1/12)
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

£3.76 £1.51 Fair Value £2.36 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £1.51 – £3.76 · fair‑value band £1.27 – £3.37 · the £3.54 price screens above the £2.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Chesnara plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates in life assurance and pension businesses primarily in the United Kingdom, Sweden, and the Netherlands. It underwrites life, health, accident, and disability cover by providing savings and pensions products to meet future financial needs; and provides a portfolio of investment contracts.

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Chesnara plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates in life assurance and pension businesses primarily in the United Kingdom, Sweden, and the Netherlands. It underwrites life, health, accident, and disability cover by providing savings and pensions products to meet future financial needs; and provides a portfolio of investment contracts. The company also provides term life, unit-linked, index-linked, and non-linked business products. It distributes its products principally through independent financial advisers. Chesnara plc was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Preston, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Chesnara (CSN) currently trades at £3.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.36, implying the stock looks roughly 49.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of £2.33 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the £3.54 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.21, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: £1.27 (bear) to £3.37 (bull), the price of £3.54 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Chesnara reported revenue of £990M in FY2025 versus £1.5B in FY2021, a compound −9.9%/yr. Reported net income was −£10.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 726M GBX · P/S ratio 2.25 · EPS (TTM) £−0.0500 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin −1.1% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% · Operating margin 15.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −33%, CSN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear £1.27 Fair Value £2.36 Bull £3.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM £1.41 £2.55 £3.51 65
DDM Multi-Stage £1.41 £2.33 £2.72 65
NCAV (Graham) £0.9000 £1.21 £1.80 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £1.41 £2.55 £3.51 65
DDM Multi-Stage £1.41 £2.33 £2.72 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.9000 £1.21 £1.80 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 95
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 78
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−40.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.0% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.7% (2019) → 1.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

CSN screens 50% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (28 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 95 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −33% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.49× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.31× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.80× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 38.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 43
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)76 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Life Insurance Company 601628 ¥38.60 ¥49.98 +29%
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 ¥53.87 ¥66.20 +23%
AIA Group 1299 HK$75.35 HK$41.68 −45%
Manulife Financial Corporation MFC $44.17 $27.59 −38%
Aflac Incorporated AFL $114.60 $67.96 −41%
MetLife, Inc MET $95.92 $53.26 −44%
Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO C$92.75 C$41.81 −55%
Life Insurance Corporation LICI ₹407.50 ₹392.93 −4%
Cathay Financial Holding 2882 110.50 TWD 72.33 TWD −35%
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 ¥31.61 ¥49.71 +57%

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Chesnara · Fair Value
£2.36 −50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chesnara Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CSN

Frequently asked questions

Is Chesnara (CSN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.36 versus a price of £3.54, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CSN?
Our model-based fair value for Chesnara is £2.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.54.
What is the quality score of CSN?
Chesnara has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chesnara (CSN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.27, optimistic scenario £3.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chesnara stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.36, about −33% upside versus a price of £3.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £1.27, optimistic scenario £3.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chesnara (CSN)?
Chesnara reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £343M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Chesnara pay a dividend?
Chesnara currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chesnara (CSN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chesnara it is £2.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £3.54. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chesnara stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CSN trades above its calculated fair value: price £3.54, fair value £2.36, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.36). For Chesnara the two are £1.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chesnara worth?
The market values Chesnara at about 726M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £3.54; our models calculate a fair value of £2.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSN?
Our models span a range for Chesnara: cautious scenario £1.27, base £2.36, optimistic £3.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £3.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chesnara (CSN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chesnara (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSN from its 52-week high?
Chesnara trades at £3.54, about 6% below its 52-week high of £3.76 and 39% above the low of £2.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chesnara?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chesnara stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £3.54, calculated fair value £2.36 (−33%), Quality Score 24/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSN calculated?
We run Chesnara through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £2.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Chesnara itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chesnara (CSN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £3.54. Our model-based fair value is £2.36, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chesnara right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£3.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (£1.27 to £3.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Chesnara (CSN) come from?
Earnings per share at Chesnara grew −14.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +9.3 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −29.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Chesnara

How large is the market capitalisation of Chesnara (CSN)?
The market capitalisation of Chesnara is 726M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chesnara (CSN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chesnara is 2.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chesnara (CSN)?
Earnings per share at Chesnara are £−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chesnara (CSN)?
The dividend yield of Chesnara is 6.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chesnara (CSN)?
The net margin of Chesnara is −1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chesnara (CSN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chesnara is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chesnara (CSN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chesnara is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chesnara (CSN)?
The operating margin of Chesnara is 15.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chesnara (CSN)?
Revenue at Chesnara is growing −7.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chesnara (CSN)?
Earnings per share at Chesnara are growing −93.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chesnara (CSN) generate?
The free cash flow of Chesnara is −232M GBX (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Chesnara (CSN) carry?
The net debt of Chesnara is 60.0M GBX (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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