Citigroup Inc (CTGP34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Citigroup Inc BRL 81.29, price BRL 112, upside -27.3%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$29.19 – R$124.70 · fair‑value band R$76.48 – R$95.74 · the R$111.86 price screens above the R$81.29 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Citigroup Inc., a diversified financial service holding company, provides various financial products and services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions. It operates through five segments: Services, Markets, Banking, U.S. Personal Banking, and Wealth.
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Citigroup Inc., a diversified financial service holding company, provides various financial products and services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions. It operates through five segments: Services, Markets, Banking, U.S. Personal Banking, and Wealth. The Services segment includes treasury and trade solutions, which provides cash management, trade, and working capital solutions to multinational corporations, financial institutions, and public sector organizations; and securities services, such as cross-border support for clients, local market expertise, post-trade technologies, data solutions, and various securities services solutions. The Markets segment offers sales and trading services for equities, foreign exchange, rates, spread products, and commodities to corporate, institutional, and public sector clients; and market-making services, including asset classes, risk management solutions, financing, and prime brokerage. The Banking segment includes investment banking services comprising equity and debt capital markets-related strategic financing solutions; advisory services related to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, restructurings, and corporate defense activities; and corporate lending consists of corporate and commercial banking. The U.S. Personal Banking segment provides proprietary and co-branded card portfolios; and traditional banking services to retail and small business customers. The Wealth segment offers financial services to high-net-worth clients through banking, lending, mortgages, investment, custody, and trust product offerings; professional industries, including law firms, consulting groups, accounting, and asset management; and affluent and high net worth clients. The company operates in North America, the United Kingdom, Japan, North and South Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Citigroup Inc. was founded in 1812 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Citigroup Inc (CTGP34) currently trades at R$111.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$81.29, 27.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$94.91 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$111.86 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$39.06, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$76.48 (bear) to R$95.74 (bull), the price of R$111.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Citigroup Inc reported revenue of $85.2B in FY2025 versus $71.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $14.3B in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$1.2T (≈ $233B) · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 2.69 · EPS (TTM) R$6.98 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 16.8% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −27%, CTGP34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$76.48Fair Value R$81.29Bull R$95.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$3.49 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Profit margin 2016 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 32%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Citigroup Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTGP34
Frequently asked questions
Is Citigroup Inc (CTGP34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$81.29 versus a price of R$111.86, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTGP34?
Our model-based fair value for Citigroup Inc is R$81.29 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$111.86.
What is the quality score of CTGP34?
Citigroup Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$81.29 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$76.48, optimistic scenario R$95.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Citigroup Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$81.29, about −27% upside versus a price of R$111.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$76.48, optimistic scenario R$95.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
Citigroup Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $78.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Citigroup Inc pay a dividend?
Citigroup Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Citigroup Inc it is R$81.29 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$111.86. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Citigroup Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CTGP34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$111.86, fair value R$81.29, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTGP34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$111.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$81.29). For Citigroup Inc the two are R$30.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Citigroup Inc worth?
The market values Citigroup Inc at about R$1.2T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$111.86; our models calculate a fair value of R$81.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTGP34?
Our models span a range for Citigroup Inc: cautious scenario R$76.48, base R$81.29, optimistic R$95.74 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$111.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CTGP34 from its 52-week high?
Citigroup Inc trades at R$111.86, about 10% below its 52-week high of R$124.70 and 33% above the low of R$84.41 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$81.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Citigroup Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Citigroup Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$111.86, calculated fair value R$81.29 (−27%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTGP34 calculated?
We run Citigroup Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$81.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Citigroup Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$111.86. Our model-based fair value is R$81.29, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Citigroup Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$95.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Citigroup Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
The market capitalisation of Citigroup Inc is R$1.2T (≈ $233B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Citigroup Inc is 16.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Citigroup Inc is 2.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
Earnings per share at Citigroup Inc are R$6.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
The dividend yield of Citigroup Inc is 2.1% (payout 33.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
The net margin of Citigroup Inc is 16.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Citigroup Inc is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Citigroup Inc is 1.2% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
The operating margin of Citigroup Inc is 34.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
Revenue at Citigroup Inc is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Citigroup Inc (CTGP34)?
Earnings per share at Citigroup Inc are growing +56.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Citigroup Inc (CTGP34) generate?
The free cash flow of Citigroup Inc is −$74.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Citigroup Inc (CTGP34) carry?
The net debt of Citigroup Inc is $18.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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