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Drax Group PLC (DRXGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Drax Group PLC $10.41, price $19.33, upside -46.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Utilities · US · ADR · Home United Kingdom · ISIN US2615011002

DG Drax Group PLC logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Drax Group PLC

DRXGY · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $10.41 · Strongly overvalued (−46.2%)
!Quality 58/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −15.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.5% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Weak on past: 14 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$24.80 $3.94 Fair Value $10.41 Jul 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.94 – $24.80 · fair‑value band $10.31 – $12.72 · the $19.33 price screens above the $10.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Drax Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in renewable power generation in the United Kingdom. The company operates through four segments: Pellet Production, Biomass Generation, Flexible Generation, and Energy Solutions. The company provides renewable, dispatchable power, and system support services.

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Drax Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in renewable power generation in the United Kingdom. The company operates through four segments: Pellet Production, Biomass Generation, Flexible Generation, and Energy Solutions. The company provides renewable, dispatchable power, and system support services. It is involved in production and sale of biomass pellets; generation and sale of electricity from biomass assets, pumped storage, run-of-river hydro, and OCGTs assets; and processing and sale of waste-derived pellets, as well as supply of electricity to non-domestic customers. The company owns and operates Drax Power Station located in Selby, North Yorkshire; Cruachan Power Station, a pumped storage hydro station, with an installed capacity of 440 megawatts (MW) located in Argyll and Bute; and Lanark and Galloway hydro-electric power stations with an installed capacity of 126 MW located in south-west Scotland. In addition, it owns and operates Daldowie fuel plant that processes sludge, a plant that converts it into dry low-odour fuel pellets. Further, the company manufactures and sells compressed wood pellets; and supplies renewable electricity. Drax Group plc was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Selby, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Drax Group PLC ADR (DRXGY) currently trades at $19.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.41, 46.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $62.63 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $19.33 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.26, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $10.31 (bear) to $12.72 (bull), the price of $19.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Drax Group PLC ADR reported revenue of £5.2B in FY2025 versus £5.1B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was £71.4M in FY2025, compounding −2.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.8B · P/E ratio 35.8 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) $0.5400 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −46%, DRXGY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $10.31 Fair Value $10.41 Bull $12.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1890 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $47.55 $81.23 $134.16 76
EPV $24.14 $28.66 $32.55 74
Growth DCF $47.63 $79.49 $128.41 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $47.55 $81.23 $134.16 76
Owner Earnings $4.37 $10.08 $19.06 70
5Y Revenue Exit $37.08 $62.63 $95.90 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $40.20 $68.77 $103.03 72
5Y P/E Exit $18.06 $25.18 $32.34 69
10Y Revenue Exit $39.20 $63.78 $98.51 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $42.34 $68.06 $104.09 65
10Y P/E Exit $28.25 $37.64 $48.74 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.82 $14.97 $20.31 62
Lynch FV $3.68 $5.26 $6.84 59
PEG = 1.0 $3.68 $5.26 $6.84 55
EPV $24.14 $28.66 $32.55 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.47 $12.90 $19.53 64
DDM Multi-Stage $6.47 $11.15 $13.62 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $7.59 $10.12 $12.65 63
P/S Multiple $7.17 $9.56 $11.95 58
P/B Multiple $7.17 $9.56 $11.95 55
EV/EBIT $41.44 $56.74 $72.05 66
EV/EBITDA $40.60 $55.62 $70.64 67
EV/Revenue $32.67 $48.58 $64.50 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.73 $9.02 $13.47 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $47.63 $79.49 $128.41 74
Rev-Margin DCF $37.08 $62.56 $93.87 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.04 $10.08 $10.46 74
ROIC Compounder $26.88 $36.35 $48.28 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $6.02 $8.60 $11.17 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.7% (2020) → 9.9% (2025)

DRXGY screens overvalued: fair value 46% below the price. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 200 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −52.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3.6% · Above median
Return on assets 7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 10.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −8.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.51× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 35.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.69× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.54× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 5.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 8
PAST (return on equity)14 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)75 · sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)30 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥28.36 ¥31.20 +10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 139.45 kr 31.40 −77%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.75 ¥4.45 −54%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €23.42 €14.06 −40%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,297 ₹169.61 −87%
SDIC Power Holdings 600886 ¥14.86 ¥16.35 +10%
EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR €12.99 €3.53 −73%
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905 ¥3.61 ¥2.40 −34%
Public Power Corporation PPC €22.96 €7.44 −68%
GD Power Development Co 600795 ¥5.34 ¥5.99 +12%

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Drax Group PLC ADR · Fair Value
$10.41 −46%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Drax Group PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DRXGY

Frequently asked questions

Is Drax Group PLC (DRXGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.41 versus a price of $19.33, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DRXGY?
Our model-based fair value for Drax Group PLC ADR is $10.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.33.
What is the quality score of DRXGY?
Drax Group PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.31, optimistic scenario $12.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Drax Group PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.41, about −46% upside versus a price of $19.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.31, optimistic scenario $12.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
Drax Group PLC ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £5.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Drax Group PLC ADR pay a dividend?
Drax Group PLC ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Drax Group PLC ADR it is $10.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $19.33. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Drax Group PLC ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DRXGY trades above its calculated fair value: price $19.33, fair value $10.41, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DRXGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.41). For Drax Group PLC ADR the two are $8.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Drax Group PLC ADR worth?
The market values Drax Group PLC ADR at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $19.33; our models calculate a fair value of $10.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DRXGY?
Our models span a range for Drax Group PLC ADR: cautious scenario $10.31, base $10.41, optimistic $12.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $19.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DRXGY?
Drax Group PLC ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Drax Group PLC ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.6%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DRXGY from its 52-week high?
Drax Group PLC ADR trades at $19.33, about 22% below its 52-week high of $24.80 and 8% above the low of $17.85 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Drax Group PLC ADR?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Drax Group PLC ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $19.33, calculated fair value $10.41 (−46%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DRXGY calculated?
We run Drax Group PLC ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Drax Group PLC ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $19.33. Our model-based fair value is $10.41, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Drax Group PLC ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY) come from?
Earnings per share at Drax Group PLC ADR grew +18.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.6 %, EBIT margin +9.0 %, tax rate −3.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Drax Group PLC ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
The market capitalisation of Drax Group PLC ADR is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Drax Group PLC ADR is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
Earnings per share at Drax Group PLC ADR are $0.5400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
The dividend yield of Drax Group PLC ADR is 1.5% (payout 53.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
The net margin of Drax Group PLC ADR is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Drax Group PLC ADR is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Drax Group PLC ADR is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
The operating margin of Drax Group PLC ADR is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
Revenue at Drax Group PLC ADR is growing −8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Drax Group PLC (DRXGY)?
Earnings per share at Drax Group PLC ADR are growing −31.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Drax Group PLC (DRXGY) generate?
The free cash flow of Drax Group PLC ADR is £516M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Drax Group PLC (DRXGY) carry?
The net debt of Drax Group PLC ADR is £774M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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