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Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Duke Royalty Ltd £0.46, price £0.27, upside +74.8%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · GB · ISIN GG00BYZSSY63

DR Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Duke Royalty Ltd

DUKE · LSE

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value £0.4633 · Strongly undervalued (+75%)
!Quality 50/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 46.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·10.57% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
✓Wide moat 67/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 25 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

£0.3040 £0.1963 Fair Value £0.4633 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.1963 – £0.3040 · fair‑value band £0.2457 – £0.7438 · the £0.2650 price screens below the £0.4633 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Duke Capital Limited is a private equity firm specializing in Management Buyouts, buy-and-build strategies, mid-market, minority buyouts, restructuring investments & royalty financing in small and medium size businesses. It does not invest in start-ups, tight margin business models. It does not make venture capital investments.

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Duke Capital Limited is a private equity firm specializing in Management Buyouts, buy-and-build strategies, mid-market, minority buyouts, restructuring investments & royalty financing in small and medium size businesses. It does not invest in start-ups, tight margin business models. It does not make venture capital investments. The firm makes investments in every sector with preference towards manufacturing, services, healthcare & IT services. It makes equity investments between £5 million ($6.36 million) and 30 million ($38.18 million) having EBITDA between £2 million ($2.54 million) and £10 million ($12.72 million). It also finances through loan sizes between £10 million ($12.72 million) and £30 million ($38.18 million). It focuses on intellectual property assets and stable, cash flowing businesses, no debt or low levels of debt, and owners not wanting to give up control or existing management wanting to become owners through an MBO. It seeks to provides capital to companies in exchange for rights to a small percentage of future revenues. The firm prefers government and/or regulatory licensed businesses. It prefers board representation in its portfolio companies. It seeks to have minority stakes in its portfolio companies. Duke Capital Limited was founded in 2015 and is based in Guernsey, Guernsey with additional offices in Guernsey, Guernsey and London, United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) currently trades at £0.2650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.4633, implying the stock looks roughly 42.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £1.06 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the £0.2650 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.2300, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: £0.2457 (bear) to £0.7438 (bull), the price of £0.2650 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Duke Royalty Ltd reported revenue of £28.6M in FY2026 versus £27.1M in FY2022, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was £11.0M in FY2026, compounding −14.3%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap 135M GBX · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 5.08 · EPS (TTM) £0.0200 · Dividend yield 10.6% · Net margin 38.4% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 75%, DUKE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear £0.2457 Fair Value £0.4633 Bull £0.7438
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £0.6500 £1.06 £1.70 74
Residual Income £0.2500 £0.2500 £0.2200 74
5Y P/E Exit £0.4100 £0.7900 £1.26 66
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
5Y P/E Exit £0.4100 £0.7900 £1.26 66
10Y P/E Exit £0.5200 £0.9300 £1.54 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £0.1500 £1.03 £1.45 61
Lynch FV £0.5300 £0.7600 £0.9900 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple £0.2800 £0.3700 £0.4600 63
P/B Multiple £0.2800 £0.3700 £0.4600 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.1700 £0.2300 £0.3500 53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £0.6500 £1.06 £1.70 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £0.2500 £0.2500 £0.2200 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 91
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 95
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+90.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+342.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.6%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.81% → 74%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.7% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 658 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +75% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 46% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 92% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 228% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 10.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.10× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.02× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 7.49× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 8.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 54
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)25 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 81

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Blackstone Inc BX $117.21 $52.29 −55%
Brookfield Corporation BN $37.85 $13.75 −64%
KKR & Co KKR $97.21 $29.25 −70%
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $124.36 $229.64 +85%
State Street Corporation STT $179.95 $138.33 −23%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $502.79 $579.51 +15%
Ares Management Corporation ARES $124.72 $119.25 −4%
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $173.40 $122.02 −30%
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $158.23 $312.27 +97%
T. Rowe Price Group TROW $104.57 $209.14 +100%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Duke Royalty Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DUKE

Frequently asked questions

Is Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.4633 versus a price of £0.2650, about +75% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DUKE?
Our model-based fair value for Duke Royalty Ltd is £0.4633 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.2650.
What is the quality score of DUKE?
Duke Royalty Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.4633 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.2457, optimistic scenario £0.7438. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Duke Royalty Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.4633, about +75% upside versus a price of £0.2650 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £0.2457, optimistic scenario £0.7438. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Duke Royalty Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £23.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Duke Royalty Ltd pay a dividend?
Duke Royalty Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Duke Royalty Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -19.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DUKE use?
Our models discount Duke Royalty Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Duke Royalty Ltd that is -19.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Duke Royalty Ltd grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies -19.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Duke Royalty Ltd (-19.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.12 %: that much free cash flow Duke Royalty Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Duke Royalty Ltd it is £0.4633 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £0.2650. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Duke Royalty Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, DUKE trades below its calculated fair value: price £0.2650, fair value £0.4633, a gap of about +75% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DUKE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.2650); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.4633). For Duke Royalty Ltd the two are £0.1983 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Duke Royalty Ltd worth?
The market values Duke Royalty Ltd at about 135M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £0.2650; our models calculate a fair value of £0.4633 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DUKE?
Our models span a range for Duke Royalty Ltd: cautious scenario £0.2457, base £0.4633, optimistic £0.7438 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £0.2650). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DUKE?
Duke Royalty Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.4633 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 7.5, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Duke Royalty Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DUKE from its 52-week high?
Duke Royalty Ltd trades at £0.2650, about 5% below its 52-week high of £0.2800 and 10% above the low of £0.2418 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.4633 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Duke Royalty Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Duke Royalty Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £0.2650, calculated fair value £0.4633 (+75%), Quality Score 50/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DUKE calculated?
We run Duke Royalty Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.4633, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Duke Royalty Ltd currently trades 75 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £0.2650. Our model-based fair value is £0.4633, about +75% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Duke Royalty Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (£0.2457 to £0.7438). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Duke Royalty Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The market capitalisation of Duke Royalty Ltd is 135M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Duke Royalty Ltd is 5.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Earnings per share at Duke Royalty Ltd are £0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The dividend yield of Duke Royalty Ltd is 10.6% (payout 140%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The net margin of Duke Royalty Ltd is 38.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Duke Royalty Ltd is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Duke Royalty Ltd is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The operating margin of Duke Royalty Ltd is 91.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Revenue at Duke Royalty Ltd is growing +228% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Earnings per share at Duke Royalty Ltd are growing +176% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) carry?
The net debt of Duke Royalty Ltd is 91.2M GBX (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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