Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Duke Royalty Ltd stock £0.35, price £0.20, upside +70.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.1810 – £0.2962 · fair‑value band £0.1241 – £0.5925 · the £0.2030 price screens below the £0.3451 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Duke Capital Limited is a private equity firm specializing in Management Buyouts, buy-and-build strategies, mid-market, minority buyouts, restructuring investments & royalty financing in small and medium size businesses. It does not invest in start-ups, tight margin business models.
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It does not make venture capital investments. The firm makes investments in every sector with preference towards manufacturing, services, healthcare & IT services.
It makes equity investments between £5 million ($6.36 million) and 30 million ($38.18 million) having EBITDA between £2 million ($2.54 million) and £10 million ($12.72 million). It also finances through loan sizes between £10 million ($12.72 million) and £30 million ($38.18 million).
It focuses on intellectual property assets and stable, cash flowing businesses, no debt or low levels of debt, and owners not wanting to give up control or existing management wanting to become owners through an MBO. It seeks to provides capital to companies in exchange for rights to a small percentage of future revenues.
The firm prefers government and/or regulatory licensed businesses. It prefers board representation in its portfolio companies. It seeks to have minority stakes in its portfolio companies.
Duke Capital Limited was founded in 2015 and is based in Guernsey, Guernsey with additional offices in Guernsey, Guernsey and London, United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) currently trades at £0.2030, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.3451, implying the stock looks roughly 41% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of £0.8950 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the £0.2030 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.2300, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £0.1241 (bear) to £0.5925 (bull), the price of £0.2030 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Duke Royalty Ltd reported revenue of £28.6M in FY2026 versus £27.1M in FY2022, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was £11.0M in FY2026, compounding −14.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £103M Micro · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 4.34 · EPS (TTM) £0.0200 · Dividend yield 13.8% · Net margin 46.2% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 70%, DUKE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£0.1241Fair Value £0.3451Bull£0.5925
Price £0.2030 · Upside +70.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income£0.2600£0.2600£0.280074
Growth DCF£0.4800£0.8200£1.3473
Owner Earnings£0.4700£0.9600£1.8470
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings£0.4700£0.9600£1.8470
5Y P/E Exit£0.3500£0.7000£1.1766
10Y P/E Exit£0.4100£0.7800£1.3659
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd£0.1500£1.03£1.4561
Lynch FV£0.5300£0.7600£0.990059
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM£0.2000£0.3500£0.470066
DDM Multi-Stage£0.2000£0.3300£0.380065
Multiples
P/E Multiple£0.2800£0.3700£0.460063
P/B Multiple£0.7800£1.04£1.3055
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)£0.1700£0.2300£0.350053
Growth DCF
Growth DCF£0.4800£0.8200£1.3473
Rev-Margin DCF£0.2000£0.2800£0.450069
Economic Profit
Residual Income£0.2600£0.2600£0.280074
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+90.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+342.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.81% → 74%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−31.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −33.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 587 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+70.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.2% · Below median
Return on assets4.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)46.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)91.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)228.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)13.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.3451 versus a price of £0.2030, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DUKE?
Our model-based fair value for Duke Royalty Ltd is £0.3451 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.2030.
What is the quality score of DUKE?
Duke Royalty Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.3451 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.1241, optimistic scenario £0.5925. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Duke Royalty Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.3451, about +70% upside versus a price of £0.2030 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £0.1241, optimistic scenario £0.5925. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Duke Royalty Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £23.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Duke Royalty Ltd pay a dividend?
Duke Royalty Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 13.79% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Duke Royalty Ltd pays a dividend of £0.028 per share a year, a dividend yield of 13.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 24, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. The payout ratio is 140% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.54 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Duke Royalty Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -31.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DUKE use?
Our models discount Duke Royalty Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Duke Royalty Ltd that is -31.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Duke Royalty Ltd grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -31.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Duke Royalty Ltd (-31.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.04 %: that much free cash flow Duke Royalty Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Duke Royalty Ltd it is £0.3451 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of £0.2030. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Duke Royalty Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, DUKE trades below its calculated fair value: price £0.2030, fair value £0.3451, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DUKE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.2030); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.3451). For Duke Royalty Ltd the two are £0.1421 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Duke Royalty Ltd worth?
The market values Duke Royalty Ltd at about £103M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is £0.2030; our models calculate a fair value of £0.3451 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DUKE?
Our models span a range for Duke Royalty Ltd: cautious scenario £0.1241, base £0.3451, optimistic £0.5925 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price £0.2030). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DUKE?
Duke Royalty Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.3451 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2021 to 2026), reported earnings: 9.3. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Duke Royalty Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DUKE from its 52-week high?
Duke Royalty Ltd trades at £0.2030, about 26% below its 52-week high of £0.2728 and 12% above the low of £0.1810 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.3451 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Duke Royalty Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Duke Royalty Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price £0.2030, calculated fair value £0.3451 (+70%), Quality Score 50/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DUKE calculated?
We run Duke Royalty Ltd through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £0.3451 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Duke Royalty Ltd currently trades 41% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £0.2030. Our model-based fair value is £0.3451, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Duke Royalty Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (£0.1241 to £0.5925). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Duke Royalty Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The market capitalisation of Duke Royalty Ltd is £103M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Duke Royalty Ltd is 4.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Earnings per share at Duke Royalty Ltd are £0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The dividend yield of Duke Royalty Ltd is 13.8% (payout 140%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The net margin of Duke Royalty Ltd is 46.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Duke Royalty Ltd is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Duke Royalty Ltd is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
The operating margin of Duke Royalty Ltd is 91.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Revenue at Duke Royalty Ltd is growing +228% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE)?
Earnings per share at Duke Royalty Ltd are growing +176% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Duke Royalty Ltd (DUKE) carry?
The net debt of Duke Royalty Ltd is £91.2M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026