Ebro Foods (EBRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ebro Foods stock €22.58, price €18.08, upside +24.9%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €12.36 – €18.78 · fair‑value band €15.80 – €29.35 · the €18.08 price screens below the €22.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Ebro Foods, S.A. operates as a food company in Spain, rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through Rice Business; Fresh and Premium Dry Pasta Business; and Other Businesses and/or Activities segments.
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The company engages in the research, production, preparation, sale, import, and export of food and dietary products for human and animal consumption, including rice, pasta, sauces, and nutritional products; and production, preparation, and sale of soft and alcoholic beverages.
It is also involved in the production of flour and canned vegetables; operation of financial and insurance management business; investment management; logistics; and rice farming activities.
In addition, the company engages in the acquisition, lease, creation, installation, development, and management of industrial, farming, and livestock facilities in the food, nutrition, and beverage industries.
Further, it provides staff training, computer programming or management, investment and monetization of resources, advertising and image, transport, and distribution and sale and marketing activities.
The company was formerly known as Ebro Puleva, S.A. and changed its name to Ebro Foods, S.A. in June 2010. Ebro Foods, S.A. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
Stock analysis
Ebro Foods (EBRO) currently trades at €18.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.58, implying the stock looks roughly 20% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €27.22 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the €18.08 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €8.14, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €15.80 (bear) to €29.35 (bull), the price of €18.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2012: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2012.
Ebro Foods reported revenue of €3.0B in FY2025 versus €2.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was €215M in FY2025, compounding −2.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.8B Mid · P/E ratio 12.6 · P/S ratio 0.94 · EPS (TTM) €1.44 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 25%, EBRO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€15.80Fair Value €22.58Bull€29.35
Price €18.08 · Upside +24.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.6411 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2012: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2012.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Per share before 2012divided by the spin-off factor 1.0101
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.7% vs 3.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.0% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Efficiency gains paired with a shift to premium and convenience foods underpin profit growth, while thin data and exposure to commodity volatility leave durable quality unproven.
Main risk: Ongoing low rice prices together with logistics strains and tariff uncertainty threaten to pressure margins in the rice and pasta operations.
Ebro Foods posted higher net profits in the first half despite lower sales, helped by efficiency gains and a shift toward premium and convenience products. The group is expanding capacity in the US for fresh filled pasta while facing low rice prices, logistics strains and tariff uncertainty. Will this focus on higher-value categories deliver sustained margin improvement amid ongoing commodity and geopolitical pressures?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+24.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.1% · Above median
Return on assets5.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.21× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.94× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)18.7× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ebro Foods Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EBRO
Frequently asked questions
Is Ebro Foods (EBRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €22.58 versus a price of €18.08, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EBRO?
Our model-based fair value for Ebro Foods is €22.58 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €18.08.
What is the quality score of EBRO?
Ebro Foods has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €22.58 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.80, optimistic scenario €29.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ebro Foods stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €22.58, about +25% upside versus a price of €18.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €15.80, optimistic scenario €29.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
Ebro Foods reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Ebro Foods pay a dividend?
Ebro Foods currently shows a dividend yield of 3.82% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ebro Foods (EBRO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ebro Foods pays a dividend of €0.69 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1992. The payout ratio is 47.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.40 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ebro Foods would have to grow free cash flow by +9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EBRO use?
Our models discount Ebro Foods at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ebro Foods that is +9.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ebro Foods (EBRO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ebro Foods grew +0.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ebro Foods (EBRO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ebro Foods (+9.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.35 %: that much free cash flow Ebro Foods produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ebro Foods it is €22.58 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €18.08. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ebro Foods stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, EBRO trades below its calculated fair value: price €18.08, fair value €22.58, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EBRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€18.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€22.58). For Ebro Foods the two are €4.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ebro Foods worth?
The market values Ebro Foods at about €2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €18.08; our models calculate a fair value of €22.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EBRO?
Our models span a range for Ebro Foods: cautious scenario €15.80, base €22.58, optimistic €29.35 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €18.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EBRO?
Ebro Foods trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €22.58 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 15.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of EBRO?
The PEG ratio of Ebro Foods is 2.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ebro Foods (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EBRO from its 52-week high?
Ebro Foods trades at €18.08, about 4% below its 52-week high of €18.78 and 7% above the low of €16.93 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €22.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ebro Foods?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ebro Foods stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €18.08, calculated fair value €22.58 (+25%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EBRO calculated?
We run Ebro Foods through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €22.58 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ebro Foods currently trades 20% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €18.08. Our model-based fair value is €22.58, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ebro Foods right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€15.80 to €29.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ebro Foods (EBRO) come from?
Earnings per share at Ebro Foods grew +3.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.1 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ebro Foods
How large is the market capitalisation of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
The market capitalisation of Ebro Foods is €2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ebro Foods is 0.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
Earnings per share at Ebro Foods are €1.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
The dividend yield of Ebro Foods is 3.8% (payout 47.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
The net margin of Ebro Foods is 7.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ebro Foods is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ebro Foods is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
The operating margin of Ebro Foods is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
Revenue at Ebro Foods is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ebro Foods (EBRO)?
Earnings per share at Ebro Foods are growing +9.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ebro Foods (EBRO) carry?
The net debt of Ebro Foods is €231M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026