Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Aquafil S.p.A $5.14, price $1.54, upside +233.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
47‑month range $1.30 – $6.07 · fair‑value band $4.36 – $5.14 · the $1.54 price screens below the $5.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Aquafil S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, reprocessing, and sale of yarns in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, Asia, and Oceania.
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Aquafil S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, reprocessing, and sale of yarns in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, Asia, and Oceania. The company offers bulk continuous filament for textile floor covering, such as polyamide 6-based yarn, partly petroleum-based, and partly from regenerated ECONYL; nylon textile filament fibers for textile and clothing use, including polyamide 6 and 66 fibers, and Dryarn polypropylene microfibers for men's and women's hosiery, as well as knitwear and non-run fabrics for underwear, sportswear, and special technical applications; and polymers and polyamide 6 for engineering plastics and injection molding. It is also involved in industrial chemical plant design and supply. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Arco, Italy. Aquafil S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Aquafin Holding S.p.A.
Stock analysis
Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF) currently trades at $1.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.14, implying the stock looks roughly 70.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $6.61 per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the $1.54 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.38, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.36 (bear) to $5.14 (bull), the price of $1.54 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Aquafil S.p.A reported revenue of €534M in FY2025 versus €570M in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $133M · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0500 · Net margin −0.9% · Return on equity −2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 5.8% · Revenue (TTM) €509M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 234%, ECNLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.36Fair Value $5.14Bull $5.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.5% (2020) → 2.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.5% a year for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 334 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−0.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aquafil S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ECNLF
Frequently asked questions
Is Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.14 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.54, about +234% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ECNLF?
Our model-based fair value for Aquafil S.p.A is $5.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $1.54.
What is the quality score of ECNLF?
Aquafil S.p.A has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.36, optimistic scenario $5.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aquafil S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.14, about +234% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.36, optimistic scenario $5.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
Aquafil S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €509M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aquafil S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ECNLF use?
Our models discount Aquafil S.p.A at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aquafil S.p.A that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aquafil S.p.A grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aquafil S.p.A (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.58 %: that much free cash flow Aquafil S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aquafil S.p.A it is $5.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.54. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aquafil S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ECNLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.54, fair value $5.14, a gap of about +234% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECNLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.14). For Aquafil S.p.A the two are $3.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aquafil S.p.A worth?
The market values Aquafil S.p.A at about $133M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.54; our models calculate a fair value of $5.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECNLF?
Our models span a range for Aquafil S.p.A: cautious scenario $4.36, base $5.14, optimistic $5.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aquafil S.p.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECNLF from its 52-week high?
Aquafil S.p.A trades at $1.54, about 30% below its 52-week high of $2.20 and 5% above the low of $1.47 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aquafil S.p.A?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tongkun Group, Shenzhou International Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, K.P.R. Mill Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aquafil S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.54, calculated fair value $5.14 (+234%), Quality Score 46/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECNLF calculated?
We run Aquafil S.p.A through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Aquafil S.p.A currently trades 70 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $1.54. Our model-based fair value is $5.14, about +234% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aquafil S.p.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Aquafil S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
The market capitalisation of Aquafil S.p.A is $133M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aquafil S.p.A is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
Earnings per share at Aquafil S.p.A are $−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
The net margin of Aquafil S.p.A is −0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aquafil S.p.A is −2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aquafil S.p.A is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
The operating margin of Aquafil S.p.A is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
Revenue at Aquafil S.p.A is growing −7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF)?
Earnings per share at Aquafil S.p.A are growing +11.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aquafil S.p.A (ECNLF) carry?
The net debt of Aquafil S.p.A is €193M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 24.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026