Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Eurocastle Investment Ltd stock €17.38, price €13.00, upside +33.7%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.31 – €15.00 · fair‑value band €13.04 – €21.73 · the €13.00 price screens below the €17.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Eurocastle Investment Limited is a publicly traded closed-ended investment company that focuses on investing in performing and nonperforming loans and other real estate related assets primarily in Italy.
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The Company is Euro denominated and is listed on Euronext Amsterdam under the symbol "ECT". Eurocastle is managed by an affiliate of Fortress Investment Group LLC, a leading global investment manager.
For more information regarding Eurocastle Investment Limited and to be added to our email distribution list, please visit www.eurocastleinv.com.
Stock analysis
Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT) currently trades at €13.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €17.38, implying the stock looks roughly 25% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at medium.
Scenario range: €13.04 (bear) to €21.73 (bull), the price of €13.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Eurocastle Investment Ltd reported revenue of €234K in FY2025 versus €2.8M in FY2021, a compound −46.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€1.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €13.1M Micro · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 5.31 · EPS (TTM) €0.7400 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 30.5% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 34%, ECT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€13.04Fair Value €17.38Bull€21.73
Price €13.00 · Upside +33.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.6346 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−78.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.6%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−31.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−556.4% (2020) → −634.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.4% a year for the price.
Compare Eurocastle Investment Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 587 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+33.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Return on assets−7.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)30.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)82.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)30.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.6× · Pricier than median
P/B0.64× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)5.31× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)7.0× · Cheaper than median
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Is Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €17.38 versus the last price from Oct 23, 2026 of €13.00, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ECT?
Our model-based fair value for Eurocastle Investment Ltd is €17.38 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 23, 2026): €13.00.
What is the quality score of ECT?
Eurocastle Investment Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €17.38 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario €13.04, optimistic scenario €21.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eurocastle Investment Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €17.38, about +34% upside versus the last price from Oct 23, 2026 of €13.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €13.04, optimistic scenario €21.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Eurocastle Investment Ltd pay a dividend?
Eurocastle Investment Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
Eurocastle Investment Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.0%.
What growth is priced into Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Eurocastle Investment Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +27.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.0 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ECT use?
Our models discount Eurocastle Investment Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Eurocastle Investment Ltd that is +27.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Eurocastle Investment Ltd grew -3.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +27.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Eurocastle Investment Ltd (+27.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.31 %: that much free cash flow Eurocastle Investment Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eurocastle Investment Ltd it is €17.38 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of €13.00. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Eurocastle Investment Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, ECT trades below its calculated fair value: price €13.00, fair value €17.38, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€13.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€17.38). For Eurocastle Investment Ltd the two are €4.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eurocastle Investment Ltd worth?
The market values Eurocastle Investment Ltd at about €13.1M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is €13.00; our models calculate a fair value of €17.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECT?
Our models span a range for Eurocastle Investment Ltd: cautious scenario €13.04, base €17.38, optimistic €21.73 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price €13.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ECT?
Eurocastle Investment Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €17.38 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2016 to 2024), reported earnings: 15.7. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 5.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Eurocastle Investment Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 2.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECT from its 52-week high?
Eurocastle Investment Ltd trades at €13.00, about 13% below its 52-week high of €15.00 and 15% above the low of €11.30 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €17.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Eurocastle Investment Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Eurocastle Investment Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price €13.00, calculated fair value €17.38 (+34%), Quality Score 60/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECT calculated?
We run Eurocastle Investment Ltd through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €17.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Eurocastle Investment Ltd currently trades 25% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 23, 2026 and stands at €13.00. Our model-based fair value is €17.38, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eurocastle Investment Ltd right now?
Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Eurocastle Investment Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
The market capitalisation of Eurocastle Investment Ltd is €13.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Eurocastle Investment Ltd is 5.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
Earnings per share at Eurocastle Investment Ltd are €0.7400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
The dividend yield of Eurocastle Investment Ltd is 0.0% (payout 0.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
The net margin of Eurocastle Investment Ltd is 30.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eurocastle Investment Ltd is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eurocastle Investment Ltd is −1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
The operating margin of Eurocastle Investment Ltd is 82.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT)?
Revenue at Eurocastle Investment Ltd is growing +30.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Eurocastle Investment Ltd (ECT) hold?
Eurocastle Investment Ltd holds more cash than debt, €14.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 4, 2026