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Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Aug 7, 2026: fair value of Electro-Sensors Inc $2.99, price $7.74, upside -61.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN US2852331022

ES Electro-Sensors Inc logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Electro-Sensors Inc

ELSE · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $2.99 · Strongly overvalued (−61.4%)
✓Quality 62/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +5.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 7 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$7.74 $3.69 Fair Value $2.99 Jan 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.69 – $7.74 · fair‑value band $2.99 – $3.00 · the $7.74 price screens above the $2.99 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Electro-Sensors, Inc. manufactures and sells industrial production monitoring and process control systems. The company offers monitoring and control systems that measure machine production and operation rates, as well as regulate the speed of related machines in production processes.

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Electro-Sensors, Inc. manufactures and sells industrial production monitoring and process control systems. The company offers monitoring and control systems that measure machine production and operation rates, as well as regulate the speed of related machines in production processes. Its speed monitoring systems include alarm systems; tachometers; various products that measure production counts or rates, such as parts, gallons, or board feet; and other devices that translate impulses from the sensors into alarm signals. The company's temperature application products consist of bearing, gear box, and motor temperature monitoring sensors. It also offers production monitoring devices that include a belt alignment and slide gate position monitors; vibration monitoring products; and tilt switches. In addition, the company provides hazard monitoring systems, such as Electro-Sentry, which integrates its sensors for monitoring temperature, belt alignment, and shaft speed with programmable control logic; HazardPRO, a wireless hazard technology monitoring system; and HazardPRO site system manager software. It serves grain, feed, milling, bulk materials, manufacturing, food products, ethanol, power generation, and other processing industries. The company sells its products through internal sales team, manufacturer's representatives, and distributors in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, United Kingdom, Egypt, India, Australia, China, the Republic of Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. Electro-Sensors, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

Stock analysis

Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE) currently trades at $7.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.99, 61.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.31 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $7.74 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.31, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.99 (bear) to $3.00 (bull), the price of $7.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Electro-Sensors Inc reported revenue of $10.1M in FY2025 versus $8.6M in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $306K in FY2025, compounding −7.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $26.8M · P/E ratio 96.8 · P/S ratio 2.92 · EPS (TTM) $0.0800 · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin −8.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −61%, ELSE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.99 Fair Value $2.99 Bull $3.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0605 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $4.69 $5.37 $6.28 82
Growth DCF $4.74 $5.37 $6.19 80
Owner Earnings $3.93 $4.31 $4.82 78
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.69 $5.37 $6.28 82
Owner Earnings $3.93 $4.31 $4.82 78
5Y Revenue Exit $3.63 $3.69 $3.73 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.82 $4.02 $4.22 77
5Y P/E Exit $4.62 $5.42 $6.21 72
10Y Revenue Exit $4.03 $4.15 $4.26 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $4.14 $4.37 $4.61 70
10Y P/E Exit $4.63 $5.29 $6.02 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.5900 $1.31 $1.67 66
PEG = 1.0 $0.2100 $0.3000 $0.3900 57
EPV $2.99 $2.99 $2.99 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1.82 $2.43 $3.03 63
P/S Multiple $1.10 $1.47 $1.84 58
P/B Multiple $1.10 $1.47 $1.84 55
EV/EBIT $3.00 $3.00 $3.00 66
EV/EBITDA $3.33 $3.45 $3.56 67
EV/Revenue $2.99 $2.99 $2.99 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.10 $2.81 $4.19 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.74 $5.37 $6.19 80
Rev-Margin DCF $3.63 $3.73 $3.84 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2.92 $2.76 $2.71 71
ROIC Compounder $2.99 $2.99 $2.99 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $1.33 $1.91 $2.48 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 66/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.3% vs −11.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.1% a year for the price.

ELSE screens overvalued: fair value 61% below the price. Compare with Keysight Technologies, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 154 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −61.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 1.7% · Below median
Return on assets −0.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −8.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 15.2% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Scientific & Technical Instruments median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 96.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.81× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.56× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 44.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.15× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)76 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)7 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Keysight Technologies, Inc KEYS $362.15 $116.07 −68%
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Garmin Ltd GRMN $294.14 $304.44 +4%
Chroma ATE Inc 2360 2,295 TWD 614.66 TWD −73%
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY $605.59 $666.15 +10%
AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company 302132 ¥72.18 ¥19.61 −73%
MKS Inc MKSI $260.82 $199.90 −23%
Fortive Corporation FTV $56.09 $35.20 −37%
Trimble Inc TRMB $57.85 $29.24 −49%
Cognex Corporation CGNX $58.75 $38.10 −35%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Electro-Sensors Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELSE

Frequently asked questions

Is Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.99 versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of $7.74, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELSE?
Our model-based fair value for Electro-Sensors Inc is $2.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 7, 2026): $7.74.
What is the quality score of ELSE?
Electro-Sensors Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.99, optimistic scenario $3.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Electro-Sensors Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.99, about −61% upside versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of $7.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.99, optimistic scenario $3.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
Electro-Sensors Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Electro-Sensors Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ELSE use?
Our models discount Electro-Sensors Inc at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Electro-Sensors Inc that is +12.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Electro-Sensors Inc grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +12.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Electro-Sensors Inc (+12.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.23 %: that much free cash flow Electro-Sensors Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Electro-Sensors Inc it is $2.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.74. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Electro-Sensors Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ELSE trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.74, fair value $2.99, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELSE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.99). For Electro-Sensors Inc the two are $4.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Electro-Sensors Inc worth?
The market values Electro-Sensors Inc at about $26.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.74; our models calculate a fair value of $2.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELSE?
Our models span a range for Electro-Sensors Inc: cautious scenario $2.99, base $2.99, optimistic $3.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELSE?
Electro-Sensors Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 96.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.1, P/B 1.8, P/S 2.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ELSE?
The PEG ratio of Electro-Sensors Inc is 3.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Electro-Sensors Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELSE from its 52-week high?
Electro-Sensors Inc trades at $7.74, at its 52-week high of $7.74 and 91% above the low of $4.05 (as of Aug 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Electro-Sensors Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Coherent Corp, Garmin Ltd, Chroma ATE Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Electro-Sensors Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.74, calculated fair value $2.99 (−61%), Quality Score 62/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELSE calculated?
We run Electro-Sensors Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Electro-Sensors Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 7, 2026 and stands at $7.74. Our model-based fair value is $2.99, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Electro-Sensors Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($2.99 to $3.00), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Electro-Sensors Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
The market capitalisation of Electro-Sensors Inc is $26.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Electro-Sensors Inc is 2.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
Earnings per share at Electro-Sensors Inc are $0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 96.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
The net margin of Electro-Sensors Inc is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Electro-Sensors Inc is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Electro-Sensors Inc is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
The operating margin of Electro-Sensors Inc is −8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
Revenue at Electro-Sensors Inc is growing +15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)?
Earnings per share at Electro-Sensors Inc are growing −49.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE) hold?
Electro-Sensors Inc holds more cash than debt, $10.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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