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ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS TRY 1.82, price TRY 14.15, upside -87.1%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS
ERSU · ISWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value 1.82 TRY · Strongly overvalued (−87%)
!Quality 31/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +53.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -83.0% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/8)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
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data points
verified, per stock, median
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.19 TRY – 51.90 TRY · fair‑value band 1.20 TRY – 2.27 TRY · the 14.15 TRY price screens above the 1.82 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Company profile
Ersu Meyve ve Gida Sanayii A.S. manufactures and sells concentrates and pulp juices from fruits in Turkey. The company offers concentrate products; puree concentrate; puree/pulp; NFC fruits juice; tomato paste; organic products; fruit juices; fruit nectars; fruit juice drinks; and flavored drinks. It exports its products.
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Ersu Meyve ve Gida Sanayii A.S. manufactures and sells concentrates and pulp juices from fruits in Turkey. The company offers concentrate products; puree concentrate; puree/pulp; NFC fruits juice; tomato paste; organic products; fruit juices; fruit nectars; fruit juice drinks; and flavored drinks. It exports its products. The company serves retail sales points, as well as military facilities, hospital cafes, schools and sport complexes, catering, etc. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Konya, Turkey.
Stock analysis
ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU) currently trades at 14.15 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.82 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 677.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 1.20 TRY (bear) to 2.27 TRY (bull), the price of 14.15 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS reported revenue of 162M TRY in FY2025 versus 24.9M TRY in FY2021, a compound +59.8%/yr. Reported net income was −123M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 843M TRY (≈ $17.3M) · P/S ratio 6.49 · EPS (TTM) −2.90 TRY · Net margin −75.9% · Return on equity −24.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5% · Operating margin −86.0% · Revenue (TTM) 130M TRY.
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −87%, ERSU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.20 TRY
Fair Value 1.82 TRY
Bull 2.27 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
5.92 TRY
7.94 TRY
11.85 TRY
51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
5.92 TRY
7.94 TRY
11.85 TRY
51
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
31/100
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Profitability
3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
3
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.9% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.3% (2020) → −20.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
ERSU screens 678% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 646 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 77.09 | CHF 59.49 | −23% |
| Danone S.A BN | €60.90 | €50.81 | −17% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $24.00 | $29.20 | +22% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥34.29 | ¥37.72 | +10% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,364 | ₹724.74 | −47% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥26.77 | ¥41.84 | +56% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.12 | ¥9.98 | −60% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $35.45 | $34.66 | −2% |
| McCormick & Company MKC | $49.42 | $51.01 | +3% |
| Hormel Foods Corporation HRL | $20.33 | $15.09 | −26% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.82 TRY versus a price of 14.15 TRY, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ERSU?
Our model-based fair value for ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is 1.82 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.15 TRY.
What is the quality score of ERSU?
ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.82 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.20 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.27 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.82 TRY, about −87% upside versus a price of 14.15 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.20 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.27 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 130M TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS it is 1.82 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 14.15 TRY. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ERSU trades above its calculated fair value: price 14.15 TRY, fair value 1.82 TRY, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERSU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14.15 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.82 TRY). For ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS the two are 12.33 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS worth?
The market values ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS at about 843M TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 14.15 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 1.82 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERSU?
Our models span a range for ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 1.20 TRY, base 1.82 TRY, optimistic 2.27 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 14.15 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
Balance-sheet figures for ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −24.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERSU from its 52-week high?
ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS trades at 14.15 TRY, about 53% below its 52-week high of 30.20 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.82 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 14.15 TRY, calculated fair value 1.82 TRY (−87%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERSU calculated?
We run ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.82 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 14.15 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 1.82 TRY, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.27 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (1.20 TRY to 2.27 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
The market capitalisation of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is 843M TRY (≈ $17.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is 6.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
Earnings per share at ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS are −2.90 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
The net margin of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is −75.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is −24.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
The operating margin of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is −86.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
Revenue at ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is growing −85.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU)?
Earnings per share at ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS are growing −37.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU) generate?
The free cash flow of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is −86.7M TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS (ERSU) carry?
The net debt of ERSU Meyve ve Gida Sanayi AS is 1.2M TRY (fiscal year 2021). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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