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ESI S.p.A (ESIGM) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · IT · Market cap €8.8M

ES ESI S.p.A ESIGM · MI
Price€1.52
Fair Value€1.17
Upside-23.0%
Quality42/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -0.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (2/13)
Narrow moat 16/100
Evidence: High Range €0.6200 – €1.52 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +19.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 23% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (€0.6200 to €1.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€3.75 €1.03 Fair Value €1.17 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.03 – €3.75 · fair‑value band €0.6200 – €1.52 · the €1.52 price screens above the €1.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

ESI S.p.A (ESIGM) currently trades at €1.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.17, implying the stock looks roughly 23.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, ESI S.p.A generated revenue of €18.8M at a net margin of -0.5%. Revenue grew 31.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.4%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 38.8. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €0.6200 (bear case) to €1.52 (bull case); at €1.52, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -23%, ESIGM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €0.2000 €0.2800 €0.4000 80
ROIC Compounder €0.5600 €0.6800 €0.7900 72
Growth-Adj P/E €0.8200 €1.17 €1.52 68
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.2100 €0.2700 €0.4200 38
Owner Earnings €0.9200 €1.73 €3.15 31
5Y Revenue Exit €0.6600 €1.20 €2.36 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €1.03 €1.96 €3.79 41
5Y P/E Exit €0.3900 €0.8100 €1.40 38
10Y Revenue Exit €0.4600 €1.17 €1.69 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €0.7200 €1.85 €3.93 37
10Y P/E Exit €0.3200 €0.6700 €1.26 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.1700 €1.21 €1.70 54
Lynch FV €0.6300 €0.8900 €1.16 50
PEG = 1.0 €0.6300 €0.8900 €1.16 46
EPV €0.5600 €0.6100 €0.6600 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €0.4000 €0.5400 €0.6700 63
P/S Multiple €0.3300 €0.4300 €0.5400 58
P/B Multiple €0.3300 €0.4300 €0.5400 55
EV/EBIT €1.15 €1.51 €1.87 53
EV/EBITDA €1.48 €1.95 €2.41 54
EV/Revenue €0.8500 €1.17 €1.50 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.2800 €0.3800 €0.5700 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.2000 €0.2800 €0.4000 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income €0.3800 €0.3700 €0.3000 61
ROIC Compounder €0.5600 €0.6800 €0.7900 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €0.8200 €1.17 €1.52 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€1.17) versus Growth DCF (€0.2800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €18.8M
Revenue growth (YoY) +31.8%
Net margin -0.5%
Return on equity -2.4%
Free cash flow €82.9K FY2025
P/E ratio 38.8
More key figures
Operating margin -1.1%
EPS (TTM) €0.0300
EPS growth (YoY) -70.3%
Net debt €596K FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

ESI S.p.A. engages in the renewable energy business primarily in Italy. The company engages in the engineering, procurement, and construction, as well as system integration activities and revamping of photovoltaic systems.

Full company description

ESI S.p.A. engages in the renewable energy business primarily in Italy. The company engages in the engineering, procurement, and construction, as well as system integration activities and revamping of photovoltaic systems. It focuses on various market segments, such as photovoltaic, off-grid, mini-grid, hybrid, and storage systems, as well as wind power plants. ESI S.p.A. was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ESI S.p.A reported revenue of €21.1M in FY2025 versus €1.7M in FY2021, a compound +88.5%/yr. Reported net income was €192K in FY2025, compounding +13.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€21.1M
Latest YoY
+19.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+97.1%
Revenue +88.5%/yr
FY21 €1.7M
FY22 €2.8M
FY23 €32.7M
FY24 €17.8M
FY25 €21.1M
Net income +13.9%/yr
FY21 €114K
FY22 −€225K
FY23 −€1.7M
FY24 €1.2M
FY25 €192K

ESIGM screens 23% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ESI S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESIGM

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −23% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 32% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.41× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 38.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.38× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.54× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 122.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 14.2× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 3 · sector 16
FUTURE 100 · sector 17
PAST 0 · sector 26
HEALTH 80 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 33

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹3,815 ₹1,994 -48%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 346,000 KRW 268,779 KRW -22%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 99,000 KRW 63,993 KRW -35%
United Integrated Services Co 2404 1,250 TWD 925.62 TWD -26%
Samsung E&A Co 028050 42,550 KRW 44,840 KRW +5%
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL ₹232.67 ₹61.46 -74%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 16,240 KRW 6,507 KRW -60%
NBCC (India) Limited NBCC ₹96.32 ₹48.22 -50%
Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO ₹1,330 ₹730.69 -45%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 92,700 KRW 20,172 KRW -78%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ESI S.p.A (ESIGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.17 versus a price of €1.52, about −23% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESIGM?
Our model-based fair value for ESI S.p.A is €1.17 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €1.52.
What is the quality score of ESIGM?
ESI S.p.A has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ESI S.p.A (ESIGM)?
ESI S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €18.8M (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ESIGM?
The net profit margin of ESI S.p.A is about -0.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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