ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of ESI S.p.A. €0.86, price €1.74, upside -50.6%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.03 – €3.75 · fair‑value band €0.6700 – €1.07 · the €1.74 price screens above the €0.8600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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ESI S.p.A. engages in the renewable energy business primarily in Italy. The company engages in the engineering, procurement, and construction, as well as system integration activities and revamping of photovoltaic systems.
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ESI S.p.A. engages in the renewable energy business primarily in Italy. The company engages in the engineering, procurement, and construction, as well as system integration activities and revamping of photovoltaic systems. It focuses on various market segments, such as photovoltaic, off-grid, mini-grid, hybrid, and storage systems, as well as wind power plants. ESI S.p.A. was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM) currently trades at €1.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.8600, implying the stock looks roughly 102.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €1.45 per share, and 4 of the 23 models we run sit above the €1.74 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.3800, and 19 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €0.6700 (bear) to €1.07 (bull), the price of €1.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ESI S.p.A. reported revenue of €21.1M in FY2025 versus €1.7M in FY2021, a compound +88.5%/yr. Reported net income was €192K in FY2025, compounding +13.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €13.1M · P/E ratio 58.0 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) €0.0300 · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% · Operating margin −1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −51%, ESIGM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €0.6700Fair Value €0.8600Bull €1.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0220 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+97.1%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+56.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +53.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−51% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)58.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.50× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.79× · Pricier than median
P/FCF179.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA21.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ESI S.p.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESIGM
Frequently asked questions
Is ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.8600 versus a price of €1.74, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESIGM?
Our model-based fair value for ESI S.p.A. is €0.8600 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.74.
What is the quality score of ESIGM?
ESI S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.8600 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.6700, optimistic scenario €1.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ESI S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.8600, about −51% upside versus a price of €1.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.6700, optimistic scenario €1.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
ESI S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €18.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ESI S.p.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +56.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +88.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESIGM use?
Our models discount ESI S.p.A. at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ESI S.p.A. that is +56.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at ESI S.p.A. grew +88.5 % a year. The price currently implies +56.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ESI S.p.A. (+56.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.63 %: that much free cash flow ESI S.p.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ESI S.p.A. it is €0.8600 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €1.74. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ESI S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ESIGM trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.74, fair value €0.8600, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESIGM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.8600). For ESI S.p.A. the two are €0.8800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ESI S.p.A. worth?
The market values ESI S.p.A. at about €13.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €1.74; our models calculate a fair value of €0.8600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESIGM?
Our models span a range for ESI S.p.A.: cautious scenario €0.6700, base €0.8600, optimistic €1.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €1.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESIGM?
ESI S.p.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €0.8600 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 21.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
Balance-sheet figures for ESI S.p.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESIGM from its 52-week high?
ESI S.p.A. trades at €1.74, about 8% below its 52-week high of €1.89 and 61% above the low of €1.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.8600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ESI S.p.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ESI S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €1.74, calculated fair value €0.8600 (−51%), Quality Score 42/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESIGM calculated?
We run ESI S.p.A. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.8600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. ESI S.p.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €1.74. Our model-based fair value is €0.8600, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ESI S.p.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€1.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of ESI S.p.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
The market capitalisation of ESI S.p.A. is €13.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ESI S.p.A. is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
Earnings per share at ESI S.p.A. are €0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 58.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
The net margin of ESI S.p.A. is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ESI S.p.A. is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ESI S.p.A. is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
The operating margin of ESI S.p.A. is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
Revenue at ESI S.p.A. is growing +31.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +97.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM)?
Earnings per share at ESI S.p.A. are growing −70.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ESI S.p.A. (ESIGM) carry?
The net debt of ESI S.p.A. is €596K (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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