Esperion Therapeutics, Inc (ESPR) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $812M
Esperion Therapeutics, Inc
ESPR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +1.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 52% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($0.8330 to $2.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7300 – $28.69 · fair‑value band $0.8330 – $2.24 · the $3.18 price screens above the $1.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Esperion Therapeutics, Inc (ESPR) currently trades at $3.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.54, implying the stock looks roughly 51.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Esperion Therapeutics, Inc generated revenue of $418M at a net margin of -1.8%. Revenue grew 23.2% year over year. Net debt stands at $380M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.8330 (bear case) to $2.24 (bull case); at $3.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 235% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -52%, ESPR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($2.96) versus Earnings-Based ($1.60). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Esperion Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines for the treatment of patients with elevated low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in the United States.
Full company description
Esperion Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines for the treatment of patients with elevated low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in the United States. The company's marketed products include NEXLETOL (bempedoic acid) and NEXLIZET (bempedoic acid and ezetimibe) tablets that are oral, once-daily, non-statin medicines for the treatment of primary hyperlipidemia in adults with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia cardiovascular disease who require additional lowering of LDL-C. Its products also include NILEMDO, an ATP Citrate Lyase (ACL) inhibitor that lowers LDL-C and cardiovascular risk by reducing cholesterol biosynthesis and up-regulating the LDL receptors; and NUSTENDI, a bempedoic acid and ezetimibe tablet to treat elevated LDL-C. It has license and collaboration agreements with Daiichi Sankyo Co. Ltd to; Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd; and Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH. Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. was formerly known as HDL Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. in May 2008. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Esperion Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $403M in FY2025 versus $78.4M in FY2021, a compound +50.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$22.7M in FY2025.
ESPR screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.19 | ¥25.94 | -51% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,933 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹7,316 | ₹1,943 | -73% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,763 | ₹1,329 | -72% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,285 TWD | 221.01 TWD | -83% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,439 | ₹1,001 | -30% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,151 | ₹703.32 | -39% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,443 | ₹2,477 | +1% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,484 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,211 | ₹874.79 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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