Exchange Bank (EXSR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Exchange Bank $255, price $158, upside +62.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $72.43 – $168.55 · fair‑value band $191.40 – $319.00 · the $157.50 price screens below the $255.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Exchange Bank, a community bank, provides a range of personal, commercial, and trust and investment management services in California.
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Exchange Bank, a community bank, provides a range of personal, commercial, and trust and investment management services in California. The company offers personal banking products and services, including checking and savings accounts; home loans, personal lines of credit, unsecured personal loans, and auto loans; overdraft line of credit accounts; and credit cards. It also provides business banking products and services, such as business checking and savings accounts; merchant services, including Clover point-of-sale (POS) systems; and business term loans, business line of credit, construction and commercial real estate, and small business administration (SBA) loans, as well as vineyard, winery, and agricultural loans. In addition, it offers online and mobile banking services; and trust administration, investment management, and estate settlement services, as well as retirement accounts and plans. The company was incorporated in 1890 and is headquartered in Santa Rosa, California. Exchange Bank operates as a subsidiary of Frank P. Doyle Trust.
Stock analysis
Exchange Bank (EXSR) currently trades at $157.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $255.20, implying the stock looks roughly 38.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $227.25 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the $157.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $135.51, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $191.40 (bear) to $319.00 (bull), the price of $157.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Exchange Bank reported revenue of $156M in FY2025 versus $119M in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $30.0M in FY2025, compounding −4.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $270M · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 1.62 · EPS (TTM) $18.73 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 19.3% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 62%, EXSR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $191.40Fair Value $255.20Bull $319.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.90 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs 4%, slowing
Profit margin 2018 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 25%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside+62% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)26% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)32% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exchange Bank Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXSR
Frequently asked questions
Is Exchange Bank (EXSR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $255.20 versus a price of $157.50, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXSR?
Our model-based fair value for Exchange Bank is $255.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $157.50.
What is the quality score of EXSR?
Exchange Bank has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $255.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $191.40, optimistic scenario $319.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exchange Bank stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $255.20, about +62% upside versus a price of $157.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $191.40, optimistic scenario $319.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
Exchange Bank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $122M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Exchange Bank pay a dividend?
Exchange Bank currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exchange Bank would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXSR use?
Our models discount Exchange Bank at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exchange Bank that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exchange Bank (EXSR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Exchange Bank grew +5.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exchange Bank (EXSR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exchange Bank (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.04 %: that much free cash flow Exchange Bank produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exchange Bank it is $255.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $157.50. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exchange Bank stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, EXSR trades below its calculated fair value: price $157.50, fair value $255.20, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXSR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($157.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($255.20). For Exchange Bank the two are $97.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exchange Bank worth?
The market values Exchange Bank at about $270M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $157.50; our models calculate a fair value of $255.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXSR?
Our models span a range for Exchange Bank: cautious scenario $191.40, base $255.20, optimistic $319.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $157.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXSR?
Exchange Bank trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $255.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 3.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exchange Bank (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXSR from its 52-week high?
Exchange Bank trades at $157.50, about 7% below its 52-week high of $168.55 and 43% above the low of $109.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $255.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exchange Bank?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exchange Bank stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $157.50, calculated fair value $255.20 (+62%), Quality Score 54/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXSR calculated?
We run Exchange Bank through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $255.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Exchange Bank currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $157.50. Our model-based fair value is $255.20, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exchange Bank right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($191.40). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Exchange Bank (EXSR) come from?
Earnings per share at Exchange Bank grew +2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Exchange Bank
How large is the market capitalisation of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
The market capitalisation of Exchange Bank is $270M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exchange Bank is 1.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
Earnings per share at Exchange Bank are $18.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
The dividend yield of Exchange Bank is 3.3% (payout 28.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
The net margin of Exchange Bank is 19.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exchange Bank is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exchange Bank is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
The operating margin of Exchange Bank is 32.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
Revenue at Exchange Bank is growing +4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exchange Bank (EXSR)?
Earnings per share at Exchange Bank are growing +3.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Exchange Bank (EXSR) hold?
Exchange Bank holds more cash than debt, $148M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026