Ferguson Plc (FERG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ferguson Plc stock $32.42, price $236, that is 86.2% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $93.68 – $265.69 · fair‑value band $16.74 – $51.82 · the $235.65 price screens above the $32.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Ferguson Enterprises Inc. distributes essential water and air solutions to specialized professional in the United States and Canada.
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The company provides various products and services, including plumbing; pipe, valves, and fittings; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning; appliances; lighting; and water and wastewater solutions to residential and non-residential customers.
It also supplies specialized water and wastewater treatment products to residential, commercial, and infrastructure contractors, as well as supplies pipe, valves, and fittings solutions to industrial customers.
In addition, it offers customized solutions, such as virtual design, fabrication, valve actuation, pre-assembly, kitting, installation, and project management services, as well as after-sales support that comprises warranty, credit, project-based billing, returns and maintenance, and repair and operations support.
The company sells its products through a network of distribution centers, branches, counter service and sales associates, showroom consultants, and e-commerce channels. Ferguson Enterprises Inc. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Newport News, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Ferguson Plc (FERG) currently trades at $235.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.42, 86% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $54.70 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $235.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.79, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $16.74 (bear) to $51.82 (bull), the price of $235.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Ferguson Plc reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2026 versus $28.6B in FY2022, a compound −25.6%/yr. Reported net income was $666M in FY2026, compounding −25.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $45.7B Large · P/E ratio 23.2 · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) $10.16 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 33.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −86%, FERG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($8.79 to $72.30). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$16.74Fair Value $32.42Bull$51.82
Price $235.65 · Downside -86.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.59 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $8.6M and none bought.
SaleIan T. GrahamOfficer3× since Oct 12, 2026: 3,288 shares, avg. $222.97$733,127Oct 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleWilliam T. Thees JrChief Operating Officer2× since Oct 12, 2026: 4,080 shares, avg. $220.42$899,325Oct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJake SchlicherChief Strategy Officer3× since Aug 28, 2026: 8,846 shares, avg. $226.12$2.0MOct 15, 2026
SaleKevin Michael MurphyOfficer, Director2× since Oct 12, 2026: 13,720 shares, avg. $217.97$3.0MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAllison StirrupChief Human Resources Officer922 shares at $225.00$207,450Oct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRobert Anthony Camposano Jr.Senior VP - Waterworks2× since Oct 12, 2026: 1,966 shares, avg. $219.48$431,488Oct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleWilliam BrundageChief Financial Officer, Director5,986 shares at $218.74$1.3MOct 12, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 32 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−71.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.1% vs −0.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.6% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: Scale in distribution supports a moderate moat via organization capital and pricing power, while limited innovation and human capital signals constrain stronger advantages.
Main risk: The FloWorks acquisition financed partly through new term loans and bridge facilities could push net leverage near the upper end of the target range and limit flexibility for further deals or raise interest costs on refinancing.
Bull case: Ferguson could integrate FloWorks technical capabilities with its branch network and scale to offer more value-added services that differentiate it from pure e-commerce or vending competitors and support margin recovery even in weak residential markets.
Bear case: Persistent competition from digitally advanced rivals combined with elevated leverage from the acquisition could erode market share in key categories and constrain investment in branch operations or further expansion if integration synergies fall short.
Ferguson has completed its acquisition of FloWorks, adding specialized capabilities in industrial valves and flow control. This expands its reach into non-residential and industrial markets even as residential construction stays soft. Will the broader platform and technical expertise deliver enough additional volume and margin lift to cover integration demands?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−86.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ferguson Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FERG
Frequently asked questions
Is Ferguson Plc (FERG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.42 versus a price of $235.65, about 86% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FERG?
Our model-based fair value for Ferguson Plc is $32.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $235.65.
What is the quality score of FERG?
Ferguson Plc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.74, optimistic scenario $51.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ferguson Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.42, about 86% lower versus a price of $235.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.74, optimistic scenario $51.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Ferguson Plc pay a dividend?
Ferguson Plc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.80% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ferguson Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +40.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -17.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FERG use?
Our models discount Ferguson Plc at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ferguson Plc that is +40.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ferguson Plc (FERG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ferguson Plc grew -17.4 % a year. The price currently implies +40.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ferguson Plc (FERG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ferguson Plc (+40.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.05 %: that much free cash flow Ferguson Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ferguson Plc it is $32.42 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $235.65. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ferguson Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FERG trades above its calculated fair value: price $235.65, fair value $32.42, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FERG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($235.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.42). For Ferguson Plc the two are $203.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ferguson Plc worth?
The market values Ferguson Plc at about $45.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $235.65; our models calculate a fair value of $32.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FERG?
Our models span a range for Ferguson Plc: cautious scenario $16.74, base $32.42, optimistic $51.82 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $235.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FERG?
Ferguson Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.42 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 21.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 7.4, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
What is the PEG ratio of FERG?
The PEG ratio of Ferguson Plc is 1.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ferguson Plc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 33.4%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FERG from its 52-week high?
Ferguson Plc trades at $235.65, about 11% below its 52-week high of $265.69 and 10% above the low of $214.26 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ferguson Plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, WESCO International, Inc, Watsco, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ferguson Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $235.65, calculated fair value $32.42 (−86%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FERG calculated?
We run Ferguson Plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Ferguson Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $235.65. Our model-based fair value is $32.42, about 86% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ferguson Plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($51.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($16.74 to $51.82). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Ferguson Plc (FERG) come from?
Earnings per share at Ferguson Plc grew +10.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin +4.9 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ferguson Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
The market capitalisation of Ferguson Plc is $45.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ferguson Plc is 1.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
Earnings per share at Ferguson Plc are $10.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
The dividend yield of Ferguson Plc is 1.8% (payout 41.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
The net margin of Ferguson Plc is 6.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ferguson Plc is 33.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ferguson Plc is 14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
The operating margin of Ferguson Plc is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
Revenue at Ferguson Plc is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −33.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ferguson Plc (FERG)?
Earnings per share at Ferguson Plc are growing +6.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ferguson Plc (FERG) carry?
The net debt of Ferguson Plc is $6.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 12.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026