Fastenal Company (FAST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Fastenal Company stock $41.28, price $52.90, that is 22.0% below the price, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.89 – $53.21 · fair‑value band $26.84 – $53.32 · the $52.90 price screens above the $41.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name.
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The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines.
It offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories.
The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations customers; non-residential construction market; farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities.
Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Fastenal Company (FAST) currently trades at $52.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.28, 22% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $23.53 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $52.90 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $7.89, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $26.84 (bear) to $53.32 (bull), the price of $52.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Fastenal Company reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $6.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $60.9B Large · P/E ratio 43.0 · P/S ratio 6.70 · EPS (TTM) $1.23 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 15.6% · Return on equity 35.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 31.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 88 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −22%, FAST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$26.84Fair Value $41.28Bull$53.32
Price $52.90 · Downside -22.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2293 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleRita J. HeiseDirector34,964 shares at $50.05$1.7MAug 5, 2026
SaleReyne K WisecupDirector36,920 shares at $47.34$1.7MMar 5, 2026
SaleScott SatterleeDirector15,964 shares at $44.19$705,449Jan 23, 2026
BuySarah N NielsenDirector1,000 shares at $39.60$39,600Nov 19, 2025
BuyDaniel L. JohnsonDirector1,000 shares at $40.44$40,440Nov 17, 2025
BuyHsenghung Sam HSUDirector1,000 shares at $40.58$40,580Nov 13, 2025
BuyStephen L. EastmanDirector1,000 shares at $40.82$40,820Nov 12, 2025
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.0% vs 9.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.0% a year for the price and +6.6% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Scale in the distribution network and high returns support a moderate moat, while limited innovation and absent insider signals constrain overall strength.
Main risk: Amazon Business and similar digital marketplaces could capture more small B2B orders with superior logistics and convenience, squeezing margins on commoditized SKUs that Fastenal distributes.
Bull case: Fastenal could deepen its onsite integration and data services to lock in large accounts while using AI tools to further differentiate its replenishment programs from pure e-commerce rivals.
Bear case: If digital platforms erode tail-spend volumes and vending suppliers constrain expansion, Fastenal's embedded inventory model could lose traction, reducing its ability to maintain high-margin onsite relationships.
Fastenal builds its edge through an extensive branch network paired with digital platforms that embed managed inventory programs deep into customer operations. Recent analyst lifts to third-quarter earnings estimates underscore the durability of margins and cash flow from this shift. Our models see the shares as overvalued, so will the ongoing push into higher-value services sustain the premium or expose it if industrial demand softens?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−22.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)35.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets24.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fastenal Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FAST
Frequently asked questions
Is Fastenal Company (FAST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.28 versus a price of $52.90, about 22% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FAST?
Our model-based fair value for Fastenal Company is $41.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.90.
What is the quality score of FAST?
Fastenal Company has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fastenal Company (FAST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.84, optimistic scenario $53.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fastenal Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.28, about 22% lower versus a price of $52.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $26.84, optimistic scenario $53.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
Fastenal Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Fastenal Company pay a dividend?
Fastenal Company currently shows a dividend yield of 1.81% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fastenal Company (FAST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fastenal Company would have to grow free cash flow by +25.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FAST use?
Our models discount Fastenal Company at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fastenal Company that is +25.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fastenal Company (FAST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fastenal Company grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +25.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fastenal Company (FAST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fastenal Company (+25.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.73 %: that much free cash flow Fastenal Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fastenal Company it is $41.28 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $52.90. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fastenal Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FAST trades above its calculated fair value: price $52.90, fair value $41.28, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FAST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.28). For Fastenal Company the two are $11.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fastenal Company worth?
The market values Fastenal Company at about $60.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $52.90; our models calculate a fair value of $41.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FAST?
Our models span a range for Fastenal Company: cautious scenario $26.84, base $41.28, optimistic $53.32 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $52.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FAST?
Fastenal Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.4, P/B 15.4, P/S 6.7, EV/EBITDA 29.7.
What is the PEG ratio of FAST?
The PEG ratio of Fastenal Company is 3.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fastenal Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 35.3%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FAST from its 52-week high?
Fastenal Company trades at $52.90, about 1% below its 52-week high of $53.21 and 37% above the low of $38.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fastenal Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, Watsco, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fastenal Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $52.90, calculated fair value $41.28 (−22%), Quality Score 78/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FAST calculated?
We run Fastenal Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Fastenal Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $52.90. Our model-based fair value is $41.28, about 22% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fastenal Company right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($26.84 to $53.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Fastenal Company (FAST) come from?
Earnings per share at Fastenal Company grew +10.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Fastenal Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
The market capitalisation of Fastenal Company is $60.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fastenal Company is 6.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
Earnings per share at Fastenal Company are $1.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
The dividend yield of Fastenal Company is 1.8% (payout 78.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
The net margin of Fastenal Company is 15.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fastenal Company is 35.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fastenal Company is 31.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fastenal Company (FAST)?
The operating margin of Fastenal Company is 21.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fastenal Company (FAST)?
Revenue at Fastenal Company is growing +15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fastenal Company (FAST)?
Earnings per share at Fastenal Company are growing +20.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Fastenal Company (FAST) carry?
The net debt of Fastenal Company is $165M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026