Watsco, Inc (WSO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $15.9B
Watsco, Inc
WSO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $298.16 to $268.10 (−10.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −16.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from $195.76 (bear) to $335.45 (bull), base $268.10. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 53/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $201.02 – $540.75 · fair‑value band $195.76 – $335.45 · the $321.02 price screens above the $268.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Watsco, Inc (WSO) currently trades at $321.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $268.10, implying the stock looks roughly 16.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Watsco, Inc generated revenue of $7.2B at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. Net debt stands at $45.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $195.76 (bear case) to $335.45 (bull case); at $321.02, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -16%, WSO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($311.17) versus Asset-Based ($52.44). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Watsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
Full company description
Watsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It distributes equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, such as gas, electric, and oil furnaces; commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems; and other specialized equipment. The company also offers parts comprising replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; and supplies, such as thermostats, insulation materials, refrigerants, ductworks, grills, registers, sheet metals, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tapes, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies, as well as plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies. It serves contractors and dealers that service the replacement and new construction markets for residential and light commercial central air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration systems. Watsco, Inc. was incorporated in 1956 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Watsco, Inc reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $6.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $497M in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
WSO screens 16% overvalued. Compare with W.W. Grainger, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Watsco (WSO) Shares Are Trading Lower Today
- Watsco Inc (WSO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Cash Position and Strategic ...
- Why Watsco Stock Crashed Today
- Watsco (WSO) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates
Peer Group
Industrial Distribution · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW | $1,376 | $625.61 | -55% |
| Fastenal Company FAST | $45.49 | $20.64 | -55% |
| Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG | $232.02 | $151.92 | -35% |
| WESCO International, Inc WCC | $326.71 | $213.01 | -35% |
| Toromont Industries Ltd TIH | C$232.22 | C$127.90 | -45% |
| Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT | $329.35 | $191.65 | -42% |
| Finning International Inc FTT | C$102.50 | C$76.38 | -25% |
| Addtech AB ADDTB | kr 329.20 | kr 156.35 | -53% |
| Core & Main, Inc CNM | $44.66 | $49.47 | +11% |
| Indutrade AB INDT | kr 218.60 | kr 147.56 | -32% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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