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First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. $7.74, price $7.62, upside +1.5%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US32043P1066

FG First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.

FGBI · US

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value $7.74 · Fairly valued (+2%)
!Quality 20/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -196.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·0.52% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 10 out of 100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$26.21 $4.40 Fair Value $7.74 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.40 – $26.21 · fair‑value band $5.77 – $11.54 · the $7.62 price screens below the $7.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First Guaranty Bank that provides commercial banking services in Louisiana and Texas. It offers various deposit products, such as personal and business checking, savings, money market, and demand deposits accounts, as well as time deposits to consumers, small businesses, and municipalities.

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First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First Guaranty Bank that provides commercial banking services in Louisiana and Texas. It offers various deposit products, such as personal and business checking, savings, money market, and demand deposits accounts, as well as time deposits to consumers, small businesses, and municipalities. The company provides loans, such as non-farm, non-residential loans secured by real estate, commercial and industrial loans, one- to four-family residential loans, multifamily loans, construction and land development loans, agricultural loans, farmland loans, and consumer and other loans to small to medium-sized businesses and professionals, and individuals. In addition, it offers a range of consumer services, including credit cards, mobile deposit capture, safe deposit boxes, official checks, online and mobile banking, automated teller machines, and online bill pay; provides additional solutions, such as merchant services, remote deposit capture, and lockbox services to business customers; and invests a portion of its assets in securities issued by the United States Government and its agencies, state and municipal obligations, corporate debt securities, mutual funds, and equity securities, as well as invests in mortgage-backed securities primarily issued or guaranteed by United States Government agencies or enterprises. The company was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Hammond, Louisiana.

Stock analysis

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) currently trades at $7.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.74, implying the stock looks roughly 1.5% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $5.77 (bear) to $11.54 (bull), the price of $7.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. reported revenue of $196M in FY2025 versus $121M in FY2021, a compound +12.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$56.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $175M · P/S ratio 7.30 · EPS (TTM) $−3.49 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin −28.6% · Return on equity −19.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin 18.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 2%, FGBI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.77 Fair Value $7.74 Bull $11.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $6.87 $9.21 $13.74 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.87 $9.21 $13.74 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 1
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.7% (2020) → −35.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −197% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 95% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.79× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.77× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.30× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)35 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)60 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)10 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.69 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.25 HK$62.30 +22%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹737.25 ₹406.85 −45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FGBI

Frequently asked questions

Is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.74 versus a price of $7.62, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FGBI?
Our model-based fair value for First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is $7.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.62.
What is the quality score of FGBI?
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.77, optimistic scenario $11.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.74, about +2% upside versus a price of $7.62 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.77, optimistic scenario $11.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. pay a dividend?
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. it is $7.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.62. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FGBI trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.62, fair value $7.74, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FGBI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.74). For First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. the two are $0.1150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. worth?
The market values First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. at about $175M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.62; our models calculate a fair value of $7.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FGBI?
Our models span a range for First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.: cautious scenario $5.77, base $7.74, optimistic $11.54 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −19.8%, debt of 0.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FGBI from its 52-week high?
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. trades at $7.62, about 29% below its 52-week high of $10.72 and 73% above the low of $4.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.62, calculated fair value $7.74 (+2%), Quality Score 20/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FGBI calculated?
We run First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. currently trades 2 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.62. Our model-based fair value is $7.74, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($5.77 to $11.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) come from?
Earnings per share at First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. grew −4.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.8 %, EBIT margin −17.1 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
The market capitalisation of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is $175M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is 7.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
Earnings per share at First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. are $−3.49. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
The dividend yield of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
The net margin of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is −28.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is −19.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
The operating margin of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
Revenue at First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is growing +94.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)?
Earnings per share at First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. are growing +255% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) generate?
The free cash flow of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is −$10.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) hold?
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $660M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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