First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc (FGBI) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $175M
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc
FGBI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −1.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.84 to $11.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.40 – $26.21 · fair‑value band $5.84 – $11.68 · the $9.60 price screens above the $7.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc (FGBI) currently trades at $9.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.83, implying the stock looks roughly 18.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $23.9M. Revenue grew 94.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -19.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $660M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.84 (bear case) to $11.68 (bull case); at $9.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 123% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -18%, FGBI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First Guaranty Bank that provides commercial banking services in Louisiana and Texas. It offers various deposit products, such as personal and business checking, savings, money market, and demand deposits accounts, as well as time deposits to consumers, small businesses, and municipalities.
Full company description
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First Guaranty Bank that provides commercial banking services in Louisiana and Texas. It offers various deposit products, such as personal and business checking, savings, money market, and demand deposits accounts, as well as time deposits to consumers, small businesses, and municipalities. The company provides loans, such as non-farm, non-residential loans secured by real estate, commercial and industrial loans, one- to four-family residential loans, multifamily loans, construction and land development loans, agricultural loans, farmland loans, and consumer and other loans to small to medium-sized businesses and professionals, and individuals. In addition, it offers a range of consumer services, including credit cards, mobile deposit capture, safe deposit boxes, official checks, online and mobile banking, automated teller machines, and online bill pay; provides additional solutions, such as merchant services, remote deposit capture, and lockbox services to business customers; and invests a portion of its assets in securities issued by the United States Government and its agencies, state and municipal obligations, corporate debt securities, mutual funds, and equity securities, as well as invests in mortgage-backed securities primarily issued or guaranteed by United States Government agencies or enterprises. The company was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Hammond, Louisiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc reported revenue of $196M in FY2025 versus $121M in FY2021, a compound +12.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$56.0M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +15.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
FGBI screens 18% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Net Income of $3.4 Million, and Earnings Per Share of $0.17
- First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI) Surges 10.4%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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